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marlon
@momilio
onchain options maximalist, class of 2020 research takes only, no more sh*tposting on alts
338 Following    1.1K Followers
Lads, the hockey stick is starting to form :) Notional volume in September more than DOUBLED compared to August, so here’s a quick onchain options recap (Sep vs Aug ’26): 1) Notional more than doubled. September notional reached $4.829B, up 121.7% month over month. 2) @paradex nearly quadrupled. Paradex's public RFQ rollout was a huge success. Notional rose 285% to $259.9M, lifting its market share from 3.1% to 5.4%. ethereum:0xb32e10022ffbedfe10bc818a1c7e67d9d87e0fa7 3) @SynapseProtocol is on the board. Notional went from $9.4M to $538.8M, a 57x jump. Hypercall now holds 11.2% of notional share, up from 0.4%, and ranks #2# behind Derive for September. Some of this volume was driven by a short-dated bear put spread. The MM that wrote this option hedged on Hyperliquid and accounted for 15% of all S&P perp volume on HL that day. ethereum:0x0f2d719407fdbeff09d87557abb7232601fd9f29 4) @DeriveXYZ doubled as well but ceded notional share. Derive grew notional by 99.3% to $3.827B, but its share fell from 88.1% to 79.3% as Hypercall and Paradex took volume. On premium, it still holds 91.6% of market share. ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be 5) Notional outran premium. Notional grew 2.2x while 30d premium grew 1.3x to $83.78M. Lower premium per dollar of notional points to more short-dated or out-of-the-money flow, a shift worth watching as it points to more retail activity (exactly what we want). What to watch in October If you’re not already paying attention to onchain options, then this is your wake-up call. The sector is still nascent but doubling volumes MoM is THE growth indicator. YTD volumes are clearly up and to the right. My open question now is whether Hypercall’s notional volume is sticky or a one-month burst. A second month above $500M would make me more confident in the venue’s growth and move me to reallocate my portfolio PAY ATTENTION TO ONCHAIN OPTIONS
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key observations are pretty straightforward: 1. @DeriveXYZ increased their lion's share, with market share by premium vol up from high 80s to now 93-94% 2. @paradex saw the biggest growth in market share, up +35% coinciding with their RFQ rollout. As I've been saying, pay attention to Paradex!! 3. Open Interest went up by 3.8x, from $655m to $2.488B 4. Rolling 30d notional sits at almost 5% of Deribit's volume now Obv ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be, ethereum:0xb32e10022ffbedfe10bc818a1c7e67d9d87e0fa7, ethereum:0x0f2d719407fdbeff09d87557abb7232601fd9f29 etc have rerated nicely with this growth, but im gonna continue to beat this horse: > we are still very early. Onchain options are just now starting to pick up in terms of traction and volume. I think over the next 12 months, onchain notional vol will be a lot closer to 50% of Deribit's numbers. And there's a good case to be made that onchain will eventually flip Deribit adjust your expectations and dream a little, onchain options are the biggest whitespace in crypto
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Spent some time building an Onchain Options Dashboard to track all major analytics Will drop my thesis sometime in the future. TLDR: sector is gonna explode ala late 2024 perp renaissance. And there are a handful of very interesting projects to watch Current Snapshot (August 17, 2026) Premium Vol (last 30d): $24m Notional Vol (last 30d): $1.18B Market Share (by prem, last 30d): @DeriveXYZ 87.1% @aevoxyz 6.9% @ryskfinance 3.8% @paradex 1.7% @SynapseProtocol 0.4% @hypersurfaceX 0.1% Open Interest: $654.9m vs. Deribit: 3.3% Notional Vol by Underlying (last 24h): $8.3m BTC $7.13m ETH $3.75m HYPE $170k XRP $29.44k XAUT $5.7k ZEC Total: $19.38m
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