Gene Munster
@munster_gene
Managing Partner @deepwatermgmt. Investing in tech-driven growth. All views/opinions are personal and not investment advice. 🚀
Joined July 2019
145 Following 105.2K Followers
$TSLA Sep deliveries are the latest sign the EV winter is thawing for Tesla (and $RIVN), while traditional car makers remain in a deep freeze.
Sep 26: While traditional car makers like GM are reporting EV's down 70% plus y/y, Tesla was down 2% in the face of the tough tax credit comp a year ago. The Street was expecting down 7%. I thought it could be flat.
Thats good news for CY27 deliveries. The Street is at 9% growth. I expect it will be above 15%.
Rivian was up 46%, but the numbers are small. Rivian delivers are 1/24 the size of Tesla.
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Tesla Deliveries land tomorrow a.m.: The EV Winter Thaws
• For the Sep quarter, the Street is looking for 461k, down 7% y/y.
• I’m looking for 497k, which would be flat y/y.
• The Street’s looking for a decline because of the tough comp from the US EV tax credit sunset last September.
• The broader EV commentary has turned more cautious recently, with sales of GM EVs down around 70% y/y.
• I believe the opposite is happening, that we’re exiting the EV winter that started three years ago. Tesla demand is stronger than expected based on a combination of continued high gas prices and the word slowly getting out that FSD is the real deal.
• U.S. extended lead times point to stronger demand. I estimate about 40% of deliveries are in the U.S. Since last fall, Model Y and Model 3 lead times have essentially doubled, going from around 5-6 weeks to about 10 weeks. That’s an average across all trims. $TSLA
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