Talked to
@valueverse_ai folks yesterday. It was interesting.
Apparently, CRV and AERO are probably the easiest to evaluate in "TradFi" ways: prices peg to fundamentals and ignore negative or positive mentions in the media.
- CRV is the easiest: just based on your normal cash flow, just made ve-aware, but nothing complicated.
- AERO is trickier. It has semi-liquid NFTs which makes delta-neutral positions feasible, so shorts suppress the price. Also lots of inflation just has to be sold to compensate IL, which suppresses price below the "naive" estimate further. But possible to analyze.
- UNI and HYPE appear to be valued very far from their fundamentals, traders appear to buy the narrative there more than calculations.
Comparing results for buyback vs. ve-tokenomics.
A small case study comparing two baskets consisting 4 biggest buyback tokens and 3 biggest ve-tokens.
Takeaways:
1. The peformance gap "buyback vs. ve" is much smaller that it was stated in the original post: $67 vs $300 -> $81 vs. $139
2. The highest valuation multiples are concentrated in major assets like $HYPE and $UNI. This suggests that market attention and valuation premiums remain heavily concentrated in the largest projects.
Ongoing observations:
1. Buybacks outperformed on price returns.
$100 invested in each of the four buyback tokens one year ago would be worth $130 on average today (equal-weighted across the group).
2. ve-tokenomics underperformed. The same $100 investment across each of the three ve-tokens would be worth just $72 on average.
3. But price performance doesn't tell the whole story. Both groups generate economic value for token holders beyond price appreciation.
4. To account for this:
- Buybacks: we account the reduction in total supply as a kind of an income, since each remaining token represents a larger share of the supply.
- ve-tokenomics: we account for revenue claimable by token holders.
5. $HYPE was the strongest price performer. Excluding $HYPE, the buyback group's average ending value drops from $130 to $115.
6. Accounting for accumulated revenue in the position:
Buybacks: $130 → $139
ve-tokenomics: $72 → $81
7. $HYPE and $UNI have relatively small supply reductions: just 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively. We calculate these figures against maximum supply (the FDV basis), since buybacks increase the proportional ownership of all remaining tokens.
8. $PUMP and $CAKE burned significantly larger portions of their supply, making their buyback-driven value accrual more substantial.
9. $PUMP and $CAKE trade at roughly the same P/FCFt multiples as $CRV and $PENDLE, around 17x, despite their fundamentally different value accrual mechanisms.
10. $AERO stands out with a P/FCFt below 10x, making it one of the cheapest assets in this comparison on a token-holder revenue basis.
All the results are presented at the infographic
Source: Valueverse API
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