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nextbigfuture
@nextbigfuture
Brian Wang | NextBigFuture: Deep Tech Insights on AI, Drones, Space, Energy & Investments | Proven prediction track record (Metaculus rank 8)
5.1K Following    20.4K Followers
Kim Jong Un of North Korea and Mojtaba Khamenei of Iran in the dead axis of evil.
🚨 UNCONFIRMED REPORTS CLAIM KIM JONG UN HAS DIED Rumors are spreading that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un suffered a brain hemorrhage, fell into a coma and later died after being transferred for treatment in Beijing. The same claims allege China sent 9,000 troops to Pyongyang and placed its Northern Theater Command on heightened alert amid preparations for a possible succession involving Kim’s daughter, Ju Ae. None of this has been independently confirmed.
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Tesla shareholders letter on Monday, highlighting its 2026 progress and confirming its annual meeting for December 3 at Gigafactory Texas. Re-elect Elon Musk, Robyn Denholm and JB Straubel for three-year board terms. Tesla’s highlights include: • More than 10 million vehicles delivered to date • Model Y on track to be the world’s best-selling vehicle in 2026 • Robotaxi service expanded to 7 U.S. cities • Cybercab production started at Gigafactory Texas, with vehicles deployed in its Robotaxi fleet • Nearly 1.5 million paid FSD (Supervised) customers and over 15 billion cumulative miles driven • Tesla Semi launched and the next-generation Roadster unveiled • More than 130 GWh of energy storage deployed to date • Megapack 3 production started in Texas, alongside record deployments from Megafactory Shanghai • Optimus V3 prepared for mass production, with production lines being developed • Investments in battery production, chips and AI training
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Why does the US have technologically dominant companies? Most institutions systematically fail to recognize 4–5σ talent and do not create an environment for top talent to thrive. $SPCX $PLTR Alex Karp: “To appreciate talent you need to be within a standard deviation of that talent.” A 1400 Elo club chess player cannot meaningfully evaluate a national master. Same dynamic in engineering, AI, and manufacturing. Leaders who can identify and fully leverage the outliers (Musk, Karp, Lonsdale) create the performance gaps everyone else treats as impossible.
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This electric propeller system did happen. It is not AI. He tried to do it with turbojet thrusters but it caught fire.
Tech blogger 神奇阿宇 from Hubei, China, built a working hoverboard. Electric, with 10 brushless motors pushing over 30kg of thrust each—enough to lift 4 people—and peak current hitting 2,000 amps. 2 STEPX Neo phones as the board's brain. One inside the board reads posture data in real time; the other on his wrist feeds AI voice prompts through his earbuds—"Weight's shifting left!" "Bend your right knee!" After 10+ days of brutal training and AI-assisted correction, he achieved man-machine sync.
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WORLDCHANGING Technology is hidden inside the Tesla Roadster Tesla's Roadster flies. Cold-gas thrusters lift it for about 10 seconds with no ramp, but the thrusters and precision control are the bigger story. The same technology could enable SpaceX to bring cargo back with precise landings anywhere on Earth from space for a tiny fraction of what a Dragon capsule costs. Billions of dollars from better drugs and materials produced in microgravity. $SPCX $TSLA
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More than 10 gives of ai day center by adding minihard data centers every month. 400 megawatt for gb300 data centers and 600 megawatts for Rubin data centers
cursor XAI At $6B ARR now. Maybe $8 to 10B ARR by year end. $SPCX
no I get it we should be freaking out a mere [checks notes] 400% year over year growth at the frontier
If this is correct then a 400 MW 220,000 B300 chip minihard would only cost $13 billion. the minihard saves 15% on electricity by having more density and lower energy losses. This would mean if Deutsche bank is correct that $26.7 per year of rent from 220,000 B300 chips then there is a 6 month payback. $SPCX @ARKInvest @elonmusk @nvidia
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what does a gigawatt cost? Perhaps as little as $33b per GW...
5,000 Starship launches a year. Nearly 14 EVERY DAY. At 200 tonnes per flight, that moves 1 million tonnes into orbit. Cheap launches are only the beginning. Towers, reliability and satellite factories must keep up. $SPCX My SpaceX space-AI breakdown:
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Anthropic will reveal financials tomorrow with its public S1. This will be important data on the state of AI.
BREAKING: @AnthropicAI S1 is dropping tomorrow and @jonbma just released his full financial model in anticipation of the release. Tweak to your heart's content!
GPT 6 is AGI and other models like Fable 5.2 and Grok 4.7 will also be AGI or near AGI. All models from Dec 2026 onwards will be AGI. Question is just how successful and profitable AI is. Fear of AI bubble goes to fear of AGI.
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Ok, one more chart today proving the AI bubble doesn't exist Global AI revenue just hit a $229B run rate, up 3.5x in a single year and now doubling every 7.2 months "But revenue doesn't cover the capex!" I know. Here's why that argument is stupid Firstly, Exponential View shows $140B of actual AI revenue over the last 12 months, $229B annualized run rate. The run rate sitting way above trailing means growth is ACCELERATING, not slowing But Hyperscalers are spending $600B+ on capex this year and AI revenue is "only" $229B. Well, capex is growing roughly 36% this year while AI revenue grew 250%. That means, revenue is compounding 7x faster than the spending And per Exponential View's own analysis, AI revenue now clears the depreciation bar on the compute base. That was Michael Burry's entire short thesis (the chips depreciate faster than the revenue shows up). So we have Debt to keep the build moving and now we have revenues growing fast enough to pay for it. The AI bubble is no longer I'm positioned all through the AI infra stack (compute, memory, power) and if this was helpful, my company runs a service where 5 top-tier analysts share their research and real-time portfolios so you can see exactly what we're buying. It's just $1 to try it out (insane price just to check it out), learn more here: Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets
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Tesla is reportedly ordering enough parts from suppliers to build 15,000 Optimus units by the end of 2026 — about 1,000/week by end of September, ramping to 2,500/week by year-end. That's a run rate of 100,000–125,000 units/year heading into 2027, and it confirms what many doubted: humanoid robots at scale is happening now, not years from now. $TSLA
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Tesla ordering parts for 15000 Optimus start September through December and scaling to 1000 per week by end of September 2026 and 2000-2500 per week rate by end of December 2026. 125,000 runrate for 2027. $TSLA Congratulations to the Tesla Team @Tesla_Optimus @Tesla_AI @elonmusk
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OMG ITS HAPPENING. Tesla optimus is scaling to 15000 by year end 2026 and 125,000+ Annual runrate.
GOOD NEWS 🤖 According to supply-chain vendors and today’s report by Jiemian News, Tesla has issued an initial batch order for roughly 5,000 Optimus robots 🔥 Following earlier pilot runs of just a few hundred units, this marks the program's first production order in the thousands. The new order establishes a firm baseline delivery target of around 15,000 units this year. More importantly, it signals a critical pivot: the supply chain is moving past merely proving the robot can be built and into the phase of testing real volume manufacturing. The immediate hurdle is a crucial round of domestic supplier audits scheduled for September—Tesla's standard gateway for bumping vendors from provisional status to certified mass-production partners. That timing fits right into Tesla’s procurement guidance, which calls for suppliers to hit a run rate of 1,000 units per week in September, ramping up to between 2,000 and 2,500 weekly by year-end. While Tesla has a track record of sliding timelines, this milestone carries different weight. With purchase orders officially cut, audits on the calendar, and suppliers actively stocking inventory, the program is shifting from executive talk to real execution on the factory floor.
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About a dozen videos from top AI reviewers are either declaring that OpenAI GPT 6 is AGI or have a serious discussion if Astra is AGI
Good news. It was unneeded drama. These are technical and business debates. There is the reality of supply chains and deployed systems and business models. Waymo is modifying less than 10 cars per day at the Mesa integration facilty. There are supply chain issues getting the robotaxi grade Lidar. Those are not scaling beyond 10-20k/year lidar robotaxi per car in 2027 or 2028. Even that needs buildout. Factories do not exist and are not funded. Tesla has 1.5 supervised FSD 14.X cars with paid software and has 4.5 million hardware ready and deployed and adding almost 2 milllon per year. Factories fully ramped, supply chain ramped and over deployed ready to activate systems. Uber buying in would add 150,000 vehicles for every $10 billion. Assuming they buy Cybercabs and Tesla sells them Cybercab. Tesla is getting others..fleet partners to bring their own capex. Tesla spends to scale platforms and factories. 10-20% of the total needed capex. And even then still Tesla constrained.
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My hyper-bull case is that 30% of global rides will be driven by AVs in 10 years. This will require ~120M+ cars doing ~25 rides a day ~360 days a year. It will cost ~$5T to build these cars at ~$40,000 each. 12M cars are built a year on average, but there will be a slow and steady ramp; perhaps 250k in 2027, 500k in 2028, 1m, 3m, etc (build your own model). Predict Tesla will be #1# in this space with 40% market share -- which would mean building ~50M cars in a decade. Zero to 40% market share and 5M cars a year on average is an insane ramp up -- but Tesla is the company best positioned to do this. Uber will be in second place with 35% market share, with two dozen partners putting absurdly cheap Chinese, Japanese, and purpose-built robotaxis into their fleet -- as no car maker wants to go head-to-head with Tesla building cars AND building a network. Waymo will buy a car maker in the next 12 months, creating a hybrid of Tesla and Uber: full-stack cars built in its factory, deployed on its network, and also added to Grab, Lyft, Uber, and other networks to increase utilization. The big story? Someone will need to fund FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF CARS 120M+ cars @ $40,000 each on average; some will be 15-20k two-seaters, some will be premium SUVS at $80,000. $7-10T+ in annual revenue is at stake for AVs alone. At a 20-40%+ gross margin, $1-2T+ in EBIDA/cash flow, we will be talking about ~20-30T in market cap. Waymo and Uber are worth ~$120B and $150B; Tesla is worth $1.4T at the moment. There's 18-28T in market cap about to be created. Please run this through your own LLMs and models... move the variables around however you like. $5 average ride, $10 average ride, $50k average vehicle cost, etc. 10% of total rides... 50% of total rides... ... however you slice it, this will be the largest market in the world for AI over the next decade. After that, human robotics will be the TAM/biggest market cap opportunity in the world... but we can do that model next.
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Chris Camillo — the investor who's turned a small stake into as much as $100M — says Tesla's robotaxi and Cybercab story is already priced into the stock. Went through the actual numbers on a whiteboard and show why we think he's missing several layers. FSD subscription revenue today, the Hardware 4 legacy fleet (6M+ vehicles), Cybercab unit economics, and where robotaxi money really comes from vs. where people assume it comes from. Chris Camillo dismisses 1 million robotaxi making $30 billion per year and take many year. Is Waymo or Tesla actually ahead right now? FSD subscription revenue vs. Waymo's robotaxi revenue Hardware payback: how fast Tesla earns back the FSD hardware cost. The 6 million Hardware 4 cars nobody's pricing in. Add ing 6 million FSD is $6 billion per year. Any changes margins. Cybercab unit economics $30K-$50K per vehicle, gross vs. net Why we think this isn't priced in — the real total What IS actually priced in: institutional ownership, optionality Optimus, semi, AI5 chips, and the next leg up What's coming next We're not saying Chris is wrong about everything — we agree part of the story is priced in. Where we disagree is how much, and which pieces (FSD legacy fleet, Hardware 4 monetization, AI5/semiconductor business) the market still isn't counting.
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