Nicole Kagan
@nkagan_official
Research & Markets @ Kalshi
52 Following 656 Followers
We’ve just made all of our Midterm model data comparisons public @KalshiResearch. You can see them here:
Today, the NYT claimed prediction markets were 'worse' than election models in the lead up to the midterms. But they ignore a few key pieces of the puzzle 🧵
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Thank you for having me @CBSLosAngeles to speak about prediction market hedging!
Many speculate (or "bet", as you call it) on prediction markets, just like they do on any derivatives market. But the exchange structure harnesses that speculation for price discovery and enables risk management for individuals and businesses, big or small.
Over time, prediction markets will let people manage exposure to most things outside of our control. We're in the early innings of that. Incredibly excited to be part of building that future.
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The Fed held. Kalshi called it with higher conviction than Fed Funds Futures, weeks in advance.
