What type of people are successful on Kalshi? We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found: Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds. -79% went to public school -They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street -65% are self-taught The majority of top traders: : -Actively seek out primary documents for research -Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs -Outperform the public on numeracy tests The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.

Continuously trading markets let you trace the path of expectations. Watch the path to the hike below, priced by markets that were found more accurate on FOMC decisions than fed funds futures. More insights here:

Inflation is running hot and the job market hasn't cracked. Core CPI +0.3% in August, payrolls +162k, unemployment 4.1%. Warsh at Jackson Hole: it's the Fed's job to deliver stable prices. Traders are reading that to mean hike. Read our FOMC preview:

Kalshi markets are pricing a 5th straight hold at 3.50%-3.75%. Real-time markets don't just call the next meeting; chained together, they price the whole path. Read our FOMC preview:

The 2026 World Cup was the largest financial event sports has seen to date $40B in GDP impact. $10.5B on ad placements. $500M in kit sponsorships Exposure that has historically been expensive to price and difficult to hedge Kalshi markets change that: