anthropic is probably the best business in AI right now and i still wouldn’t touch it on day one. the whole thing is set up for suppliers and insiders to sell into the index buying.
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CCC junk spreads went from 10.75% on 22 september to 12.02% on 2 october, about 127bp, and the CCC index yields around 17% now. BBB spreads moved 9bp over the same days, 0.95% to 1.04%. so the bottom of the credit market widened about 14x as much as the top.
the fed's hike is landing almost entirely on the weakest borrowers, and investment grade barely noticed. that's the market hyperscalers and the big AI issuers fund themselves in, so their bond deals keep clearing cheap while the companies that were already struggling pay for the hike
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korea announced $919bn worth of datacenters in july. 8.4GW by 2029, 18.4GW by 2035.
meanwhile the whole national program budget to actually produce the model those gigawatts are supposed to run is $350m.
that’s like 2,600x more on the buildings than on the thing the buildings are for...
-- motif trained the best non-chinese open model on ~$15m of compute. under 30 people, 768 b200s, under 2MW.
-- then their scoring was 40% benchmarks, 35% expert review, 25% unblinded user testing. they won the benchmarks, came last on the other two, and got cut.
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