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Pepe Maltese
@pepe_maltese
Economist & investor. Ex-bank trading desk. AI, capital cycles and the businesses that get paid. Spreadsheets meet the real world.
188 Following    3.7K Followers
The timing of this whole AI credit freakout is almost comical. Market spends 2 weeks having a collective nervous breakdown over neocloud CDS, financing gaps, circular capex and the impending death of the entire AI industrial complex. Every macro tourist with a bloomberg terminal is suddenly an expert in GPU depreciation and nobody is making any money from AI except NVIDIA selling chips to companies that will all go bankrupt. Then Anthropics S1 drops and, well, would you look at that. Turns out the revenue base might be considerably more diversified than the bears have been telling us. Awkward fucking timing. Remember the argument that 80% of Anthropic's revenue came from just 8 companies? Meta supposedly 10% by itself? According to the quoted s1 numbers, the top 5 customers accounted for just 21% of Q3 revenue, down from 36% in Q1. Nobody individually exceeded 10% over the first nine months. That's a pretty dramatic broadening of the customer base in six months. My view is that this shakeout may have arrived right before the market gets much better evidence of actual AI monetization. And if that's true, the setup becomes pretty nasty for the overcrowded bear trade. Because if a few financing deals close, CDS stops screaming, the existential discount starts evaporating and everyone discovers that they were shorting a capital intensive industrial transition as if it were a demandless Ponzi scheme. For $IREN, $NBIS and $CRWV, this is a scenario worth watching.
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