Peter Wolff(@peterjwolff):No sugar coating it, the next 12-18 months are incredibly important proof of execution and of significant AI-related revenue acceleration months for $CIFR $IREN $WULF. In the midst of the Iran War, macro uncertainties, and market volatility, the market’s decided to continue pricing them as high risk, expensive ventures that are unlikely to succeed or to hit their aggressive revenue targets. Over the last couple years, these companies been setting up the right building blocks for everything to work, but this market now wants to see the real proof in the numbers. In this AI compute constrained, energy starved environment, I remain optimistic on these teams to deliver on their plans. I also believe the “time to compute” factor will become increasingly important over the next 12-18 months as many inferior datacenter projects deliver subpar results. Even through this year’s fear and volatility, $NBIS has been rewarded by the market for their proof of superior execution and real revenue acceleration this year, and I remain a happy shareholder with this company too. Thank you for the detailed explanation of this @CipherInc deal @rftylerpage. Many longer term shareholders like myself appreciate these thoughtful updates.

2026.09.26 19:35

No sugar coating it, the next 12-18 months are incredibly important proof of execution and of significant AI-related revenue acceleration months for $CIFR $IREN $WULF. In the midst of the Iran War, macro uncertainties, and market volatility, the market’s decided to continue pricing them as high risk, expensive ventures that are unlikely to succeed or to hit their aggressive revenue targets. Over the last couple years, these companies been setting up the right building blocks for everything to work, but this market now wants to see the real proof in the numbers. In this AI compute constrained, energy starved environment, I remain optimistic on these teams to deliver on their plans. I also believe the “time to compute” factor will become increasingly important over the next 12-18 months as many inferior datacenter projects deliver subpar results. Even through this year’s fear and volatility, $NBIS has been rewarded by the market for their proof of superior execution and real revenue acceleration this year, and I remain a happy shareholder with this company too. Thank you for the detailed explanation of this @CipherInc deal @rftylerpage. Many longer term shareholders like myself appreciate these thoughtful updates.

Tyler Page@rftylerpage

2026.09.26 11:10

I think you are oversimplifying the concept of “spot” rates for leasing. Generally, tenants are very interested in powered shells available in the near-term and become less interested in ones available further into the future. This relative level of interest is reflected in what they are willing to pay in rent. Leases that are being signed and announced now are typically for sites available 12-18 months out, and they are being signed at the highest rates we have seen. But if you ask a hyperscaler about what they would commit to pay right now for a long-term lease for a site available in 2030+ (if they would even be interested now), they might offer to pay 7-8% YOC. At those levels, we would not commit to a lease and will wait if we have such a site available. The binding commitment we received here is for a lease starting 10 years from now at a rate in-line with today’s elevated market rates for powered shells available in the near-term from a very large and successful leading AI lab. This is a big deal and evidence of a long-term sustained demand environment in my opinion. I saw a few other questions along the lines of “Why sign now? Why not wait?” Presumably this logic is based on the idea that we should just wait 8.5 years until interest will be higher. My answer is that we have never seen interest at today’s elevated rates for a lease starting that far in the future and it provides an excellent projected IRR on our investment. Also, if we follow that advice, why should we ever sign a lease at all? Just keep waiting for infinitely higher lease rates. I don’t believe that is a winning strategy. Lastly, keep in mind that headline lease rates don’t tell the full story in an inflationary environment with fast-changing design and engineering standards. You need to consider other elements that can control your costs and financing risks. We are focused on maximizing a return on our investment while managing risks. (Note that this is also why revenue comparisons with neoclouds are somewhat irrelevant—they have a completely different cost and risk structure)

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