Instinct founder Noah Shinn says its compute needs are effectively doubling every week. He says Instinct is currently scaling even faster than Claude Code or Codex. h/t to @patrick_oshag

“Some of the greatest investments of my life did not go straight up. There were ugly drawdowns, bad quarters, terrifying headlines and long periods when the market disagreed with me. The money was not made by predicting every short term move.” Excerpt from this great reminder post from @realroseceline, I agree. My greatest investments over the years have been these type of stocks. Patience is underrated on FinX and CNBC. Narratives follow price action, most of it is just noise.

I know of several medical colleagues over the years, including doctors, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants, who seriously injured themselves (or worse) in terrible accidents related to high-risk recreational activities shortly after they graduated from their intense educational programs. Be careful out there!

Each of these companies has successfully delivered operating AI datacenter infrastructure in the last few months, but we as investors need to see these buildouts translate into significant, sustainable, recurring AI revenues in their upcoming earnings reports. These projects are expensive, complicated, and time-consuming. Any hiccups in the "time to compute" factor could prove very costly. These companies' theses remain strong as long as AI compute demand remains insatiable, energy access remains scarce, and other datacenter projects remain delayed/challenged over the next few years.

No sugar coating it, the next 12-18 months are incredibly important proof of execution and of significant AI-related revenue acceleration months for $CIFR $IREN $WULF. In the midst of the Iran War, macro uncertainties, and market volatility, the market’s decided to continue pricing them as high risk, expensive ventures that are unlikely to succeed or to hit their aggressive revenue targets. Over the last couple years, these companies been setting up the right building blocks for everything to work, but this market now wants to see the real proof in the numbers. In this AI compute constrained, energy starved environment, I remain optimistic on these teams to deliver on their plans. I also believe the “time to compute” factor will become increasingly important over the next 12-18 months as many inferior datacenter projects deliver subpar results. Even through this year’s fear and volatility, $NBIS has been rewarded by the market for their proof of superior execution and real revenue acceleration this year, and I remain a happy shareholder with this company too. Thank you for the detailed explanation of this @CipherInc deal @rftylerpage. Many longer term shareholders like myself appreciate these thoughtful updates.

I calculate the price I’d be willing to pay for the stock, and I try to purchase the stock with a margin of safety, a certain percentage below my calculated fair value. You have to be careful only using favorable analyst targets. If analysts were always right, they’d likely be much richer.

Too many people seem focused on timing the exact tops and bottoms on their favorite stocks. I prefer accumulating my favorite assets at fair prices, rather than waiting for the “perfect price.” The longer the price stays fair, the more shares I’ll end up accumulating over time.

2026 has been a year of dollar cost averaging through the chop for me. My share counts across my favorite holdings have significantly increased over the course of the year. Despite all the market uncertainties and trending bear posts, I too remain quite optimistic.

Impressive early numbers and growth rate for Grok Bot Agent users. The recently launched Muse is number one on the App Store. Regardless of many 2026 market headwinds, agentic AI for the general public has launched with incredible, real consumer demand. We need more compute.

Elon + SpaceXAI are building a company live with Grok Bot 👀 Live demos. Hands-on builds. The team behind Grok Bot. Grok Bot Galaxy starts tomorrow in SF + livestream. This could get wild.

JPMORGAN UPGRADES $IREN TO OVERWEIGHT, RAISES PT TO $65 FROM $46 JPM says IREN is emerging as a top-tier neocloud provider, helped by its NVIDIA partnership, stronger customer momentum and rising AI infrastructure pricing. The firm notes neocloud contract pricing has moved from roughly $10-$15/W to $15-$20/W+, while customer prepayments of 25%-50% are helping fund GPU purchases. IREN has also raised its year-end 2026 ARR target to as much as $4B, with roughly $1B of operating ARR today. JPMorgan highlighted IREN’s Microsoft buildout, recent deal with an unnamed frontier AI lab, and contracts with NVIDIA, Figure AI, Perplexity, Together AI, Fluidstack, Cohere and others. Looking into 2027, JPMorgan believes IREN’s planned ~0.5 GW expansion could command materially higher pricing than earlier contracts. Deals above $15/W would provide significant upside to its financial outlook. The main near-term risk cited is potential delays from Texas data center interconnection reviews, although IREN’s Sweetwater 1 and 2 projects were recently conditionally included in ERCOT’s Batch Zero process.

$IREN CEO on Anthropic call for frontier slowdown: “Even if models never improved from here… just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years” I agree, and current narrative is reminiscent of the $NVDA DeepSeek selloff or the $GOOGL TurboQuant scare. Guess what happened? These scares once or twice a year all turn out to be immaterial to the overall AI buildout. Especially when we have contracted demand all the way into the 2030’s now from advanced packaging to memory procurement.

Wild 24 hours for AI and lots of different proposals have been made. TLDR; the only *tangible* new fact is that OpenAI and Anthropic are going to have embedded 3rd party evaluators from unknown organizations with Dario floating METR as a possibility. Having 3rd party evaluators is smart as there is no Section 230 style liability shield for model outputs and showing a “duty of care” will be important in future litigation. Several internet companies might have gone bankrupt without Section 230 so limiting liability really matters. There are minimal investment implications from this single new fact, but I do think that for anyone who wants a “smoother for longer” cycle then most constraints are good: wafers, watts, real rates and spreads. Excessive regulation is a different matter but I don’t think we are anywhere close to this even if the vector changed over the last 24 hours. To summarize the events: Dario made the most maximalist proposal of the weekend: embedded 3rd party evaluators, a national regulatory regime for models beyond a certain capability/ingredient threshold, a broad international regulatory pact between democracies, stricter limits on compute/distillation for China and then a different international regulatory regime that encompasses China. Before there is a national regulatory regime, he wants a Sherman act waiver so that Anthropic can safely coordinate with OpenAI and other frontier labs without antitrust fears. TBF, this latest proposal is much less maximalist than some of his prior proposals like “Policy on the AI Exponential,” where he advocated for an FAA for AI. I believe he is sincere in his beliefs. And despite all the protestations, all of this would also probably be good for his business over the long-term. Sam agreed that embedded 3rd party evaluators were a good idea and stated they would implement them. Again, this is smart as should help limit future liability. Elon said “Dario is right” and later specified that “Dario is right that there should be some oversight. Peer review of AI by competitors is the right way to start this off.” This would be a MPAA like self-regulatory structure for AI with regular calls between the labs plus a process where each new model is evaluated for safety by competitors for a 1-2 week period before being released. That is *wildly* different from Dario’s proposal and in-line with what David Sacks has been proposing. Elon also stated that nothing was going to slow down open-weight models. Demis said that Dario’s essay was a “step in the right direction.” Dario also said that he was also open to Demis’ idea of a FINRA like self-regulatory structure as part of his proposal. David Sacks had a thoughtful post where he said that Dario and Sam should pace unilaterally, called the antitrust waiver a cartel request and denied that METR was truly independent given their ties to Anthropic. Sriram Krishnan, former White House AI advisor, noted that it would be important to have the 3rd party evaluators come from independent organizations that are not affiliated with any lab, which is basically an indirect statement about the relationship between METR and Anthropic which Sacks was explicit about. Clem from Hugging Face said they were open to being a neutral 3rd party evaluator, which is interesting especially if Jensen was consulted before that post. Alexander Wang from Meta noted that alignment would be an increasing focus going forward. An executive order seems likely after all this and the language in this EO is going to be really important. It is possible to democratize and distribute AI broadly and safely without centralizing it in the hands of a few corporations who might each become more powerful than any single government. I do not want a few humans in control of intelligence. I want us all to have our own intelligences that reflect our own values and human variation in all of its richness. Intelligence distribution over intelligence centralization FTW.

Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead. You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier. Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want. Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well. So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it. If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.

Truthfully, I’ve used debt in the past to accelerate my net worth, including student loans, business loans, margin, and a house mortgage. In recent years, I’ve become more debt averse as AI has continued its rapid progress. There’s a possibility that many people’s current careers could be disrupted/displaced by this technology in the next few years. I do believe new job opportunities will fill the gaps over time, but I still expect there to be a difficult period of transition for many individuals. One of the last things one would want in the case of unexpected job disruption is recurring expensive monthly payments. I hope I’m wrong on the difficult transition period, and I hope it goes smoother for most people than my expectations. One caveat: Of course, a low 2-3% interest mortgage that has payments requiring less than 25% of one’s monthly income is probably not going to be detrimental. But this optimal kind of debt situation is rare these days.

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch Study the great investors’ strategies, writings, and temperaments to help you endure the more volatile seasons in the market.