Philip Pilkington
@philippilk
Macroeconomist/investment professional. Author: The Collapse of Global Liberalism. Host of the Multipolarity podcast, @MultipolarPod.
352 Following 53.1K Followers
If this is just aimed at suppressing oil futures prices while crack spreads blow out and Trump tries to talk down retail price on Truth Social in a desperate gambit to firm up support for the GOP in November this is one of the most bizarre series of happenings I’ve ever seen. 😵💫
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One Oil Tanker visible in the US corridor this morning.
Heavy Air cover is active 24/7. A very costly operation ..
Oil futures probably have an impact on prices at the margin and in the very short-term, but to a very large extent prices are dictated by supply and demand. The only thing Trump can do to stop “gouging” is price caps which will rapidly create shortages. 🇺🇸🛢️
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Bloomberg is trying to convince me this morning that Oman control half the Strait of Hormuz. Note to the editor: the internet exists. 🇴🇲
Decent chance oil hops around $70-80 for a few weeks. Expect reserves - both commercial and strategic - to drain pretty rapidly at these fake prices. 🛢️
CRUDE OIL RISES AS U.S.-IRAN PEACE TALKS RESUME, HORMUZ RISKS LINGER
• WTI ROSE 2.2% TO SETTLE AT $70.75 A BARREL, WHILE BRENT GAINED 1.6% TO $73.15
• OIL PRICES ROSE AFTER THE U.S. AND IRAN AGREED TO HALT ATTACKS AND RESUME PEACE TALKS IN DOHA
• HOPES FOR AN EVENTUAL FULL REOPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CONTINUED TO SUPPORT MARKET SENTIMENT
• TANKER TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINED BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING RECENT ATTACKS, KEEPING SUPPLY RISKS ELEVATED
• IRAN SAID IT WILL CONTINUE PLANS TO MANAGE MARITIME TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
• TRADERS ARE CLOSELY WATCHING SHIPPING FLOWS, INSURANCE COSTS, AND SUPPLY CHAIN NORMALIZATION
• MOST OF OIL'S WARTIME RISK PREMIUM HAS NOW BEEN ERASED AS DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS GAIN MOMENTUM
• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DIESEL EXPORT RESTRICTIONS COULD TIGHTEN GLOBAL FUEL SUPPLIES AND SUPPORT OIL PRICES
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The cover-up has begun: Brussels-backed liberals made impossible promises during the campaign. Now the truth is emerging: austerity is coming.
And financial newspapers are already helping them sell the narrative - while celebrating the end of Hungary’s patriotic economic policy.
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“Strait is Open” op is now dead - except on Bloomberg or whatever. Reports suggest Iranian leadership say technical talks aren’t even on this week. Gasoline prices are rallying but to the extent prices have been held down, they’ll only empty inventories quicker over the summer.
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is back to the same level as it was during the wartime period
The MoU signed in Switzerland raised it from approximately 5-10 vessels a day to 15-20
Before the war, around 150-200 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis
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Gasoline is going higher.
It will drag crude up.
We’re doing a Q&A round on @MultipolarPod this week. Leave your question in the comments of this post. Thanks! 🎙️
QUESTION AND ANSWER WEEK ON THE POD.
Sling your questions in the comments below, and we will endeavour to answer on the show.
New House Prices have dropped below Existing Homes for the first time in history 🚨🤯
Hedge Funds dumped tech stocks last week at the fastest pace in history 🚨 🚨
Bursting Of AI Bubble, Collapse Of Circular Deals Are Among Top Risks To Global Financial System, BIS Warns
Buffett seems to be betting markets are about to crash. Maybe the all-hands-on-deck attempt to get oil prices down is to try to put a floor under a very wobbly stock market and economy? 📈📉
Warren Buffett is waiting for a bigger drop in stocks 🤯👀 He says March was nothing 👻📉
Putin seems to have just said he’s taking Odessa and the entire coastline. 🇷🇺🇺🇦
If the Mag 7 ETF $MAGS falls below $60, the Stock Market is headed for a "risk off" summer, warns Bank of America 🚨 🚨
Prediction markets think the Strait won’t reopen this summer. Only professional financial market journalists and trading algorithms disagree at this stage. 🛢️
Only a matter of time before the war in Ukraine spreads. 🇱🇻🇷🇺
Oman has reportedly told European allies that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz could face new navigation or environmental service fees, per Reuters
Imagine being a financial journalist. Oh your (short-term) employment is secured, but your credibility? Nah bro, that’s finished. You look like a complete idiot. Hope whatever it was was worth it. 🤷♂️🫡
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The upcoming round of talks between the U.S. and Iran have been canceled. - i24NEWS
Moscow.
War is coming to Europe. Likely before 2027. Make your plans accordingly. 🇷🇺🇪🇺
To no one’s surprise the future Prime Minister of Hungary @_OrbanAnita turns out to be a creature of some of the most lunatic late-Cold War networks in America. Good to see certified madman and huckster Richard Pipes of Team B-psychoanalysis-as-strategic-analysis turn up. 🤡
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