Paul Enright(@pmje73):One thing I was just thinking about was how I am a big fan of applying Kegans work on adult development to investing. If you apply to AI Stage I - socialized mind - there is now a wide and deep set of beliefs on AI. If you get your opinions from listening to others opinions you will contribute to volatility and probably do very badly at this stage. Stage II - self authoring mind - you will have been early and right but the limitation to the self authoring mind is, rather than seeing AI as a chessboard you are playing, you see yourself as an integral piece in the game. This is particularly apparent in AI. You may not objectivity see some of the moves because you are so subjectively imbedded in the game. You will do well if you have staying power but you will endure a lot of volatility Stage III - self transforming mind - you are truly playing the game not watching others play and not making yourself a part of the game. Self transforming minds will do better in this part of the cycle. Self authoring minds can really make the leap to self transforming in these kinds of cycles if they can step back and really look at the game and see if they are too close and need some distance and perspective.

2026.10.17 13:05

One thing I was just thinking about was how I am a big fan of applying Kegans work on adult development to investing. If you apply to AI Stage I - socialized mind - there is now a wide and deep set of beliefs on AI. If you get your opinions from listening to others opinions you will contribute to volatility and probably do very badly at this stage. Stage II - self authoring mind - you will have been early and right but the limitation to the self authoring mind is, rather than seeing AI as a chessboard you are playing, you see yourself as an integral piece in the game. This is particularly apparent in AI. You may not objectivity see some of the moves because you are so subjectively imbedded in the game. You will do well if you have staying power but you will endure a lot of volatility Stage III - self transforming mind - you are truly playing the game not watching others play and not making yourself a part of the game. Self transforming minds will do better in this part of the cycle. Self authoring minds can really make the leap to self transforming in these kinds of cycles if they can step back and really look at the game and see if they are too close and need some distance and perspective.

Paul Enright@pmje73

2026.10.17 11:08

I think this recent volatility continues to reflect the misalignment in the product cycle and the capital cycle. The product cycle itself has gotten more complex not simpler due to the continued presence of multiple competing products and the shifting relevance of open and closed models. The capital cycle is adding complexity on the other side of complexity proving two things can be true. The market can be structurally under supplied compute/infra but the capital complexity to finance the build may be over extended and overly complicated. I observe a lot of frustration about this dynamic. If you are super bullish long term this should be great. I think the issue is people are more bullish about the economics caused by the under supply than perhaps their bullishness on the underlying unit economics of the products on the other side of the shortages. The frustration is driven by not getting/keeping a sustained multiple now on the current economics reflexively driven by the supply/demand imbalance. I wont pretend to know what’s going to happen to alleviate supply or not, or what the economics of the models will look like depending on the slope of supply. I just know this kind of uncertainty usually leads to volatility because the market hates uncertainty more than anything. That means being nimble. Just when you think there is a clear trend, something else will change and make you re-think everything you believe today.

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