TAIEX has outperformed globel peers YTD, making Taiwan the fourth equity market in the world. This is not only TSMC's achievement but also reflects the breadth of Taiwan's manufacturing base, which holds a pivotal position in the supply chain.
Looking into Q4, it’s typically the strongest quarter of the year for Taiwanese markets. In particular, Google's TPU v8t begins shipping in 4Q26, and led by MediaTek it should continue to drive revenue growth across PCB, thermal, optical and ODM.
Although valuations will still be affected by bond yields and the US–Iran conflict, the dominant variable remains AI capex, which is not expected to decelerate until 2028.
Taiwan's P/E does still look somewhat elevated against the S&P 500. But on the back of strong revenue growth, MSCI puts Taiwan's forward P/E at just 18.9x, and some companies are already booked to capacity through 2027.
With Q4 momentum close to assured, the most important question is where the bottleneck moves next in the AI supply chain.