SentimenTrader
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The Sentimentrader Advantage: Over 20 years of exclusive, data-driven insights and unrivaled market sentiment tools.
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Half the stocks in $SOXX are now below their 200 day moving averages. Just five sessions ago, only 20% were.
Breadth fell 30 percentage points in five sessions, ranking among the worst 0.8% of five session changes since 2009.
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Bitcoin's trend setup has turned bullish, with both Trend Scores at least 8. A strategy invested only under those conditions returned 92.5% annualized historically. Recent returns have been smaller than in Bitcoin's early years.
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The KOSPI fell 3.7% Tuesday, with a sharp reversal in market breadth.
Its advance/decline reading swung from +435 to minus 584 in one session.
Of 4,633 daily breadth changes since 2008, only 18 were this large on the downside.
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Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-20)
• Smart Money 0.5 | Neutral
• Dumb Money 0.48 | Neutral
Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader:
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More stocks fell than rose in both the DAX and FTSE on Monday.
DAX advance/decline swung from +28 to minus 22, while FTSE fell from +49 to minus 61.
The DAX swing ranks among the worst 2% of daily breadth changes since 2008.
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That extreme optimism in $XLP faded fast.
Oct. 19: $XLP sentiment dropped from 95.41 to 68.30 in just one trading session.
Meanwhile, $XLY sentiment reached 83.25, now in extreme optimism.
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Consumer staples sentiment is near euphoric. Nasdaq-100 sentiment is near the floor.
Oct. 16: $XLP sentiment reached 95.41, while $QQQ sentiment plunged to just 8.98.
A sharp divide between defensive staples and tech-heavy growth.
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Backwardation in crude oil futures is intensifying.
The term structure ratio climbed from 1.1055 on Friday to 1.1328 on Monday, with nearby contracts commanding a growing premium over later deliveries.
Both the daily and five day increases rank in the top 1% since 2008.
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$GDX members above their 50 day averages plunged from over 90% to 8% in 21 sessions.
A bounce was common after past washouts. Staying power was harder to find: 8 of 10 completed signals rose in month one, but only 4 gained from day 21 to day 63.
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Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-19)
• Smart Money 0.52 | Neutral
• Dumb Money 0.48 | Neutral
Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader:
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Consumer staples sentiment is near euphoric. Nasdaq-100 sentiment is near the floor.
Oct. 16: $XLP sentiment reached 95.41, while $QQQ sentiment plunged to just 8.98.
A sharp divide between defensive staples and tech-heavy growth.
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High beta is losing ground to quality stocks. Fast.
Oct. 16: The S&P High Beta / High Quality relative ratio rank plunged from 83.46 to 19.31 in just five sessions.
That 64 point rank drop ranks among the most extreme 0.2% of five day declines since 2011.
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Oct. 16: $TSLA's Trend Score fell to 1, while sentiment dropped to 21.09, nearing extreme pessimism.
Yet 20 day volatility sits near a six month low at 31.44.
Weakening trend, bearish sentiment, but no volatility spike.
Track $TSLA's trend, sentiment, and volatility via SentimenTrader Light Data API:
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Consumer Staples breadth has snapped back.
In 21 sessions, the share of $XLP stocks above their 50-day average rose from under 10% to over 67%.
The 5-to-12-month record was exceptionally bullish. The next-week win rate was just 30%.
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Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-16)
• Smart Money 0.53 | Neutral
• Dumb Money 0.47 | Neutral
Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader:
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The S&P 500’s unfavorable seasonal stretch ended at the October 14 close, opening the historically favorable year-end window. Since 1985 the index rose through this window in 33 of 41 years, an 80% win rate. The lone caution is small caps, now in a correction.
Five reports this week. Weight of Evidence: Constructive, selective.
U.S. Stocks • Defensives • Year-End Tilt • Transports • Small Caps
Read the full Weekly Research Signals:
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The S&P 500 just entered its most favorable stretch of the calendar.
Since 1985, holding from mid-October through year-end turned a dollar into $5.44, a 444% gain, with the index higher in 33 of the past 41 years. Healthcare, Technology, and Industrials have led this window historically, while Consumer Discretionary and Energy have lagged.
This week's TradingEdge Weekly video covers the year-end window, bullish signals building in transports, a Titanic breadth warning, and small caps back in correction territory.
The full SentimenTrader market view:
Read full analysis:
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Semiconductor breadth has collapsed in just six trading sessions.
Oct. 15: Just 3.3% of $SOXX constituents remain above their 10-day moving averages, down from 66.7%.
The recent pullback has become broad-based across chip stocks.
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Even after $IWM entered correction territory, 47% of Russell 2000 stocks remain above their 200-day averages.
In five prior corrections from 3-year highs with breadth above 40%, four were higher six months later.
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Small Cap Stocks $IWM have entered a technical correction after falling more than 10% from their August all-time high 🚨
Long-term Treasury sentiment has swung from one extreme to the other.
Oct. 15: $TLT sentiment surged to 87.59, up from near 10 in late September.
Yet $TLT's price rebound has been far more modest.
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