I think "AI welfare" is morally obscene (given all the human suffering in the world), and will add to the growing anti-AI backlash. AI is a technology that humans created that should be used for our benefit, not a rival species we should be nurturing .

"The role of raw power in intelligence", Hans Moravec, 1976 (!). "The first section discusses natural intelligence, and notes two major branches of the animal kingdom in which it evolved independently, and several offshoots. The suggestion is that intelligence need not be so difficult to construct as is sometimes assumed. The second part compares the information processing ability of present computers with intelligent nervous systems, and finds a factor of one million difference. This abyss is interpreted as a major distorting influence in current work, and a reason for disappointing progress. Section three examines the development of electronics, and concludes the state of the art can provide more power than is now available, and that the gap could be closed in a decade."

New paper: "Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs". Our system (BLF) matches human superforecasters on ForecastBench, and beats all the top methods (GPT-5, Cassi, Grok 4.20, and Foresight-32B). 🧵

I am pleased to announce another update to my RL tutorial ( This time I have added code for RLFT for multi-turn LLM agents, using the awesome Tinker library from @thinkymachines, and the simple ReBN training loop from GEM by @zzlccc et al. With ~100 lines of simple python running on your laptop, you can train an agent based on Qwen3-4B-Instruct to play "guess the number" in 20 minutes.