Abstracts of UMC (2303 TT, UMC) Acceleration in PIC/TFLN(薄膜铌酸锂 Thin‑Film Lithium‑Niobate)
📈 Buy | TP lifted to NT$160 - PIC/TFLN upside unlocks a higher-margin cycle
• High-margin PIC business acceleration mainly driven by:
– Hyperlight (could have made significant progress with Google)
– TeraHop (key customers: Nvidia, GOOG)
• TFLN 8” Wafer shipment expectations:
– 20k wafers/month by 4Q27
– 40k wafers/month by 4Q28
• PIC economics far superior to corporate average with Gross margin >70%, ASP ~$2.5k per 8” wafer (vs Normal 8” ASP below $1k), Expected EPS contribution of NT$0.7 in 2027 and NT$1.5 in 2028
• That said, TFLN will help UMC shift its product mix toward higher-value AI segments (including optics)
• Possibility remains open for UMC to extend its PIC wafer business into packaging over the mid/long term
In addition to PIC/TFLN,
• UTR expected to keep rising, driven by: AI (incl. optics), CIS / ISP
and DDIC (benefiting from Apple moving Mac from 8” to 55nm)
• Although the market has less appetite for the price-hike theme, visibility has been extended to 2H27
• Intel collaboration: Management earlier reiterated the partnership remains on track Tape-out targeted for 2027 on Intel 12, and we now expect the Capacity to be more than one phase
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