I have spent a good 6-8 hours this weekend using @Muse and my reaction is bullish. I just updated my thesis on how Muse can provide a catalyst to $META earnings going forward in my latest article on @artemis which can be read below:
Yesterday Kevin Warsh hiked rates by 25bps with core CPI at 2.4% YoY, the lowest reading since March 2021. His explanation was that inflation is too high and has been for too long.
Core inflation was 80bps higher when the Fed cut by 50bps than it was when the Fed just hiked. It gets stranger when you look at the monthly data. The August 2024 core print before the cut was 0.3%. The August 2026 core print before the hike was 0.3%. Identical monthly numbers produced opposite policy decisions.
I get the pushback. Headline is 3.4% now because energy ripped and the funds rate was 5.25% to 5.50% then vs 3.5% to 3.75% now so the starting points were different. That still doesn't explain how 3.2% core justified easing into an election while 2.4% core justifies tightening.
Either the Fed was too easy in 2024 or it's too tight now. Both can't be the right call at those inflation levels. Every Fed official says policy is data dependent yet the same 0.3% monthly core print produced a 50bps cut in one cycle and a hike in the next. The 2% target isn't setting policy. Discretion is.
I would love to see what Fed Chair Warsh would say to this. @federalreserve@SecScottBessent@realDonaldTrump
Navarro's right and the Fed's own history proves it. Bernanke's 1997 paper with Gertler and Watson found that most of the economic damage following postwar oil shocks came from the Fed's tightening response rather than the oil itself. The Fed hiking into energy spikes is a big part of what turned the 70s oil shocks into recessions.
2011 ran this exact experiment in real time. The same oil spike hit both sides of the Atlantic. The Fed looked through it and the US expansion continued. The ECB hiked twice into it and the eurozone went straight back into recession. One of those central banks got it right.
An energy shock is a tax. Nobody opts out of gas, diesel or heating so every extra dollar at the pump comes straight out of discretionary spending. Diesel at $6 flows through freight into the price of everything on a shelf. The shock does the Fed's demand destruction for it.
A 25 bps hike doesn't produce a single barrel of oil. It stacks restriction on an economy where job growth averaged about 31K a month over the past year, real hourly earnings are falling and mortgage rates sit above 7%. That's fighting a supply problem with a demand weapon and the Fed's own research says it ends badly.
I think $SOFI delivered an incredible quarter and I put my analysis in this article below. Congrats @anthonynoto as $SOFI is becoming a true compounder across the board.
$SOFI - SoFi Technologies Q2: The Everything App Inflection Just Showed Up In The Numbers
I just finished my article discussing how Micron just confirmed that we are in the early stages of the A.I. Buildout which can be read below on @artemis $MU just backed up everything in $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT, $ORCL, and $GOOGL earnings reports