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Many Web3 projects may be overestimating the appeal of lottery-style rewards. TaskOn recently ran a community poll: Would you rather get a guaranteed $2 or have a 10% chance of winning $20? Same expected value, yet the vast majority chose the guaranteed $2. When users spend time completing tasks and walk away with nothing, it still feels like a negative experience, even if the expected value makes sense mathematically. A better incentive model might be: Guaranteed base rewards + high-value bonus opportunities. The former builds trust and predictability. The latter creates excitement and drives organic sharing. Of course, guaranteed rewards can also attract airdrop farmers. The real challenge is tying those rewards to meaningful user actions rather than just task completion.