Housing & Economic Analyst. Based in Dallas. As seen on Fox Business and Bloomberg. Boston Marathon Qualifier. Media Inquiries: amynixonmedia@gmail.com
When people say they want rate hikes, what they actually want is asset price depreciation
They don’t actually want it to cost more for them to borrow money
But guess what?
We hiked 11 times between 2022 and 2025, and asset prices went up across the board (with a few outlier pocket housing markets) because our goverment won’t stop spending and printing money
So, for people who didn’t yet own assets before 2021, those assets now both cost more AND require higher interest payments if you don’t have the capital to purchase them outright
You don’t want rate hikes. You just think you do.
People seem to not understand this, so let me explain what rate hikes cannot do:
➡️ A rate hike cannot drill oil
➡️ A rate hike cannot end a war
➡️ A rate hike cannot manifest a house
If you live in a supply-constrained housing market that is not building, rate hikes won’t help, and likely make it worse.
We saw this from 2022-2025
Fewer people with locked in low rates move. Wealthy people with money to bid on the few existing listings are impervious to hikes. They simply adjust their portfolios based on the yields, and continue to obtain free money (passive income) on all their invested capital
US home prices continued to rise nominally during 1978-1984, despite 18% mortgage rates AND rolling recessions, because home prices don’t respond to high mortgage rates. Nor do they necessarily respond to recessions. They respond to supply and demand
We basically did NINJA loans again but this time with non-US citizens
Many homebuilders, such as Bloomfield Homes in Celina, TX offered access to FHA loans for H-1B visa holders through their preferred lenders until May of 2025, when Trump had HUD shut these lending practices down
Some of these FHA loans offered 100% financing through a combination of a standard FHA loan and access to State assisted first time homebuyer grants for the 3% downpayment
Yes, you read that correctly, your tax dollars funded home-buying grants for non-US Citizens during the Biden administration
Is it just a coincidence that home prices began falling at a rapid pace in Celina, TX almost immediately after Trump shut this program down?
How many people bought a brand new home with zero money down at peak 2022-2024 pricing?
You won’t see an impact at a national level, but you WILL see it in certain markets with a lot of H-1B tech workers and new construction