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that1618guy
@that1618guy
Founder @Stateofblocks Prev @delphi_digital Going all in every time is the mathematically optimal strategy
667 Following    25.8K Followers
The way Elysium memecoins looking at me rn
u thought i was joking?
Why buy $HYPE? to speculate on the highly advanced, societal altering coins launching at 100k mcap on Elysium of course who cares about the perp dex anyway
Monday: Anthropic postpones IPO to Q1 2027 pls?
dude just postpone this IPO man wtf
Wanted to expand on the graduation point from my last Elys post imo tokens launched on @Enter_Elysium have a shot at the full HL lifecycle: onchain → HL spot → HL perps e.g. on RH chain most protocols want to get listed on the RH app as a form of validation. On Elys tho, the next step up is HL itself. huge distro perk for builders rn most of the launches are happening on @MontraXYZ as with every new chain, the first and fiercest battleground is... you guessed it, the launchpads lol using data from elysa terminal: > ~65% of launchpad volume in the last hr, ~62% over 24h (vs ~27% all time, so flow is rotating in) > ~66% of new tokens in the last hr, 11K of 18.6K in the last 24h > $EACCAT is the biggest trending token at ~$4.4M on Montra, followed by $BLOB at ~$2.7M on Elyspump and $CHAMELEON at ~$2.2M on Montra > 3 of the top 5 trending are Montra launches > ~20 launchpads on the chain rn and Montra is doing ~2/3 of the flow before mainnet goes live Nov 9 will be interesting to see if they can hold the lead going into mainnet, but the flow dominance so far (volume traded, tokens launched, highest mcap coins) is a strong start anw tech wise, the pad has one uni v4 pool per token, no migration + fee sits in the pool not the token. protocol cut buys back $MONTRA via the kinetiq:native pair, so it depends on volume holding up after TGE (the rev buybacks and xRev narrative here will be one to watch again) interesting spot to consider from the Elys onchain -> HL spot/perps lifecycle narrative, and imo the tokens with the best narratives will stand the best chance at doing so (i.e. $CASHCAT listing on RH few weeks into chain going live)
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+the graduation from onchain to HL spot + perps listing is also another distro perk
> if you shit your pants, dont stand up
top tokens on @MontraXYZ going head-2-head, what an amazing sight to see
dude just postpone this IPO man wtf
JUST IN: Anthropic plans to IPO before thanksgiving at $1.5 trillion valuation, FT reports.
um... DXY (1st chart) looking to try break the upper range + VIX (2nd chart) now closing above the 22 range i highlighted in below post not looking too hot atm, unless there is some sort of fed / usg pivot soon both charts are atm pointing higher, and higher here = not good
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the VIX (2nd chart) getting slammed back down after a pop into the 20-22 region last thur/fri this area marked out has been resistance on every pop since April of this year. above 22 = no good. but rn looking like a clean rejection off the range DXY (first chart) popped above range highs, looking for a sign of a deviation back lower, similar to what we saw in early Feb of this year if VIX above 22 + DXY breaking up... markets in for a decent deeper pullback imo
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$orbio model usage metrics still up and to the right, usage isnt slowing down revenue numbers will make a comeback once more trading volume returns and then users will reprice the token based on revenue moving higher i still believe at these levels orbio is very attractive
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pls give local low for nice bounce on $INTC im long on this retest after a 60% drawdown in 6 weeks, is that too much to ask tradfi gods?
eh so when is $INTC a buy, perhaps rn for a decent bounce at the 1W 200ema?
Why buy $HYPE? to speculate on the highly advanced, societal altering coins launching at 100k mcap on Elysium of course who cares about the perp dex anyway
Keep seeing folks say crypto is "just gambling" Yeah it is lol. But so is everything else, sooner we acknowledge it the better > 500k / 2M mcap coin is a gamble, that's also why the r/r is so skewed > 50M / 200M mcap is also a gamble, just lower risk Earnings call is a gamble that whatever gets said isn't priced in yet, or better, that ur a better judge than the market Technicals? A gamble that the algos that have been selling get squashed by the buy algos math Gambling is basically just how you express your view on probabilities and everything in life is probabilistic Odds of you taking a step out of your house and Satoshi is waiting outside for you to hand you his keys? Low, but not impossible That's why you do the research, not to stop gambling but to make ur odds better Tldr life is a gamble, and you size accordingly
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+the graduation from onchain to HL spot + perps listing is also another distro perk
What isn’t $RAETO team on, that’s a better question they can’t stop shipping lol reminds me of early PRIORS, same type of hunger for more
@that1618guy @priors_trade already on it. the format is published, with test vectors so anyone can check their own reader. it's written as a sibling to priors' 8466 on the same erc-8004 registry, so any app that already reads priors can read ours with almost no extra work
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Ok this is shaping up to be a good thing
eh so when is $INTC a buy, perhaps rn for a decent bounce at the 1W 200ema?
Was a great stream chatting markets with the @MCGlive folks. Touched on a bunch, including where we go post Binance hack, swing trading majors, RH chain, Elysium launch and much more Give it a watch
Today on MCG @Stateofblocks w/@that1618guy Highlights :n ex Delphi analyst and founder of State of Blocks, a trading community that shares setups and research. Highlights Include: 00:58 - Marcus's Background 03:24 - Relative strength is only relative until the fall catches up 07:03 - @AnthropicAI IPO could drain liquidity like @SpaceX 10:10 - Add risk early and cut risk late 11:21 - Crypto has no passive bid so the marginal buyer rules 11:54 - Calls the Bitcoin low in at $60K 14:21 - $NEAR at $1.80 vs $4 and fundamentals follow price 16:36 - Bitcoin Google searches explain price 18:13 - HYPE at $70 with everyone talking was the warning 20:16 - What gets retail back into crypto? 25:23 - Binance hack of $6B with half frozen 26:00 - Real test is the bank run 28:36 - Bybit handled its hack like a masterclass 31:04 - Bids $HYPE and @Lighter_xyz as the marginal buyer returns 32:50 - Bullish Robinhood Chain after 70-80% pullbacks 33:14 - The trench special bids at a 78% pullback 33:34 - Likes $ORBIO for real revenue 35:05 - Priors dev call at a $2M market cap 43:19 - $700K rewards post was an overreaction 48:36 - Too many copy paste launchpads 49:18 - $BUN is different with AI market making 54:13 - Four agentic finance picks 57:19 - Loves $HOOKR and $STONKBROKER 1:00:06 - HYPE attention and why Kinetic is the beta play 1:03:03 - State of Blocks Discord
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chatting state of the market w the folks from @MCGlive, tune in
Please note today on MCG we will be starting with @that1618guy at 12pm EST to give ourselves more time to talk markets, tickers and ideas. @ChillTRD and @DineroDom0 will be hosting.