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that1618guy
@that1618guy
Founder @Stateofblocks Prev @delphi_digital Going all in every time is the mathematically optimal strategy
Joined April 2018
656 Following    25.9K Followers
some thoughts on the market rn: i'm of the opinion that since on-chain was what onboarded retail via fomo/pf, it would probably be the first place to catch back up again when liq conditions improve (we've been getting small glimpses of this - esp when $BTC makes a tiny move from 80→83k, on-chain stuff pumps hard) we saw RH / SOL on-chain send via "liquidity events," with $PONS going from 0 → 1B and $STONK to 400M, and that capital rotated down the risk curve to everything else on-chain > then lagged as capital flocked to chase majors > then the majors lagged to chase the majors beta > then the beta to the beta > then the beta to the beta to the beta this pb was kinda expected? we saw general weakness in the first major leaders ($ZEC, $ENA, $UNI) even while $BTC was grinding slowly up toward $87k, and it became even more obvious when $TIA and $STRK rallied multiple X's off the lows this isn't a comment on whether those tickers deserved the rally - my view is simpler: there wasn't enough capital in crypto to support these sudden repricings across the board and now we're seeing a general pullback back to my original point, i say it's weird because on-chain is still generally very weak (leaders like $PONS haven't shown much life yet), yet there's clear bifurcation with select on-chain names holding up better than the prior leaders ($HOOKR, #V4#, $PRIORS, $WTH etc.) part of me is wondering if this next run-up on-chain will be driven by other names vs the leaders of the first run. if so, to see another type of run like we did in round 1, we need another protocol to run to the hundreds of millions just like PONS/STONK did for their ecosystems idk which tickers are the chosen ones, but if i had to guess it'll be one with all a combo of the correct narratives (v4 hooks, agentic finance, revenue meta) at the end of the day, profit taking or "level of jeetness" is just a function of liquidity, plain and simple. and crypto in general has been running low on liq for the past few weeks, so every pop has been aggressively sold into to chase the next shiny thing same view as before, $BTC above 88-90k and the next round of musical chairs starts again
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