Here’s what I’m expecting in tomorrow’s 8-k.
$MSTR ATM: ~$2.0B sold
• Aug 3-7: 6.6M shares sold / 50.5M traded = 13% of volume, avg $99.20
• Aug 17-21: 18.3M / 112.1M = 16% of volume, avg $109.88
• Last week: 104.8M shares traded, heaviest on the premium days (Thu 29.4M, Mon 26.1M)
• mNAV: ~1.02 Monday → 1.10 Thursday. They sell harder when premium expands
• ~16% participation at ~$127 VWAP = ~16M shares, ~$2.0B
$STRC buyback: ~$160-190M
• Filed repurchases = 28% then 24% of STRC’s weekly volume
• Last week: 7.1M shares traded at ~$97.5
• 25% of that tape = ~1.8M shares, ~$175M
$BTC: ~23,000 BTC bought
• Cash is at sufficient levels, doubt they added more
• Full deployment of the rest: ~$1.8B
• Stock sold at $127 = equivalent to bitcoin priced at ~$84k on the balance sheet
• Spot averaged ~$79k → every coin ~6-7% accretive
• Holdings above 860,000 BTC
The $1.59B Cash Reserve from the prior week: untouched
• Raised at $109.88 avg = bitcoin priced at $75k
• Using it to buy BTC at $79k would be dilutive
Now we wait.