Tim Willems
@timwillems85
Economist at the Bank of England (previously with the IMF). Views are my own.
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@MayankSeksaria @LJKawa @TheStalwart In reality, learning about highly persistent variables is very difficult, which might explain why the term premium might seem volatile, even if it is quite stable in realty. See, eg:
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@MayankSeksaria @LJKawa @TheStalwart Intention is a loaded word I guess but I thought Joe’s write-up is great!
Relative to our short blog, we might do a better job of setting out the exact mechanism in Sections 2 and 3 of our paper (
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Thanks so much for this excellent write-up, Joe!!! 🙏
@TheStalwart Many thanks Joe, too kind! Some further reflections here:
Why have long-term rates risen so much since 2020? In a new @VoxEU post, Paul Beaudry, Paolo Cavallino, and I show that about 90% of the increase for the US occurred within 3-day windows around Fed speeches and nonfarm payroll releases [1/7]
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