will end up re working most of the deck. will still aim to have my polished thoughts published mid next week. here were some initial thoughts on the potential winners
i had been working on a hip4 report for the past week or so. i feel like hip4 has been covered incredibly well since the initial proposal was published and there are tons of good analysis on what it is, how it works, and why you should care. the one spot i felt like most ppl missed in their reports was the growth of hyperliquid's native stablecoin - USDH - and the non cyclical revenue line that this would create as it's not tied to trading volume
i guess this is all largely scrapped now. in the end, the reason it took me some time to get comfortable writing about hip4 is i thought it was fairly overhyped. yes, it is a huge unlock to enable binary options for users. i especially think it is quite bullish vault growth on hyperliquid over the long run. and yes it is a huge unlock to have spot, perps, and binary options unified in one venue. no doubt this is a huge unlock. however, i think assuming hip4 outcome markets will eat the majority of polymarket/kalshi usage is misplaced. it very well might have the majority of the up/down underlying asset outcome markets (e.g. will btc be > 80k by end of week) but i think adoption on the other more niche markets takes some time.
it looks like hype's stablecoin revenue via this new deal with cb/circle will now surpass by 12m estimates for usdh. gg
i think from a blockchain principles standpoint i hate the deal with circle/cb (would rather be in bed with bridge/stripe which in a way usdh was) but from a biz standpoint hl has all the leverage.
hyperliquid