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Bojan Tunguz
@tunguz
Founder and CEO @tabul_ai. Creator of @trainxgb. ML ex Nvidia. Data Scientist. Physicist. Catholic. Husband. Father. Stanford Alum. Memelord. e/xgb. AMDG.
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Analog techno is the thing.
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Hardware shortages may *FINALLY* force us to go back to the basics and search for better and more efficient ML algorithms.
You only have 6 - 18 months to become the person you always wanted to be. After that you can be anything.
What happens in mathematics doesn’t stay in mathematics.
Scary and exciting times ahead.
Some rumors I've heard. I'll start with Google, then Anthropic and OpenAI. Google: Insiders say Google has either cracked RSI (recursive self-improvement) or is very close. Their pace has picked up fast in recent months. They went from GPT-5 level to Opus 5.5 level in months, and speculation is that RSI made that possible. Anthropic: About a week ago, Anthropic started a new pretraining run. It is not Fable 5.5 but what would become Fable 6, or something bigger, to catch up to OpenAI's Bel. OpenAI: Bel (it may have another codename) is the model behind the math results OpenAI published a few days ago, and RSI apparently helped there too. From what I'm hearing, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are all very close to cracking RSI or already have. It will get scary and exciting at the same time.
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When you order a ten-piece Chicken McNuggets and you find out that they only gave you nine pieces.
When I was moving into my ML career after years in academia, I made a pragmatic decision to just focus on getting things to work, instead of learning any theory. I thought one day I might come back to fill in the gap, but at some point I realized that it was in fact largely a waste of time.
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You aren't bad at machine learning math. You were taught by academics who prioritized dense notation over spatial intuition. Traditional math education forces you to memorize symbols before you understand concepts.
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Do not neglect to show kindness to lowbie normies, for thereby some have entertained ASI agents unawares.
American mind cannot comprehend this. Except in California. They totally get it, and then some.
Never build a house in Germany. Never.
I was dunking on AI agents demos about booking flights and similar stuff, but yesterday I used Codex to add our cat to our flight, and I can confirm this was one of those qualitative life improvement things. Airlines really make this process unnecessarily difficult, and having a personal AI assistant do it for you was a great hack.
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Very interesting. Another reason I’m glad I never took any of those stimulants.
I've always assumed stimulants make smart people sharper, but it's the opposite. In a 2023 study, people on Ritalin, modafinil and dextroamphetamine worked harder on a complex problem, but the quality of their solutions dropped. Plenty of people report feeling like their IQ drops by few points on e.g. modafinil. I'd say these might feel useful for tedious work you absolutely disdain, but probably not for creativity.
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What a time to be alive!
BREAKING: Bone-building peptide Entera will enter Phase 3 trials this weekend, and could be a cure for osteoporosis!
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I really really hope that we can go back to curiosity and learning driven culture in science.
“None of the humans involved in these proofs are available to take questions, give talks ...” If we turn every talk into a defense exam (torturing speaker by questions), we shouldn’t be surprised when nobody volunteers. Invite them. Let them present several results, with short AI-generated summaries of the proof ideas. Let the speaker and audience work through the mathematics together, suggest new problems, and help each other understand. Even before AI, plenty of talks were mostly advertising: grand claims about the results, plenty of muscle-flexing, and barely a slide on how the proofs worked. We shouldn’t romanticize that format. Now we could have talks that give us a view of several breakthroughs: AI generated ideas behind them, the techniques doing the work, and the connections worth exploring. That sounds exciting to me. Of course, someone can spend weeks digesting one proof and give a beautiful lecture. But why make that the price of admission to every seminar? There are many results posted that people once wondered whether they would see in their lifetime. Getting an overview of five of them may be a better use of someone’s time than preparing to defend every technical detail of one single result. “Here is what I understand. Here is what I don’t. Let’s figure it out together.” That should be a welcome opening to a research talk.
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This has been a very well established finding in psychology research - “transfer learning” doesn’t really work for humans. The underlying assumption of “transfer learning” is an explicit or implicit justification for almost all of institutionalized education. It has lead to the staggering amount of wasteful effort for decades, centuries even. Hopefully we can reboot all of it soon.
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*inverse watermelon red on the outside, green on the inside
he looks like a watermelon
Crypto was a low math phenomenon.
What happens in mathematics doesn’t stay in mathematics.
Who’s building a solar mega power plant in Yuma?
Yuma, Arizona, gets over 4,000 hours of sunshine a year, the most of any city on Earth.