russia is mounting interceptor FPVs on Molniya-2, three per carrier. This is what a technical talent injection looks like. They are actively recruiting engineering students into Russia's unmanned systems forces, scaling to 165,000 by the end of 2026.

In eastern Ukraine 🇺🇦 the battle for the fortress belt is slowly ongoing with the final target, -the castle- Kramatorsk 14km from the frontline The fortress belt is a 90km long urban area in the Donbass, eastern Ukraine, which stayed under Ukrainian control in 2014-15 and became a central base in the region for the army. If we usually include 4 cities, I chose to add two more. To the south, the mining and industrial city of Toretsk served as the southern bastion, located directly on the Donbas front line and heavily fortified between 2014 and 2022. The urban conurbation extends toward Kostiantynivka, followed by Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk (the de facto capital of Ukrainian Donbas since 2014), and Sloviansk; across the Donets River lies Lyman (captured and subsequently liberated in 2022), which forms the northern bastion. These six cities, spanning a 90-kilometer stretch, were preceded by an initial line of defense that fell between 2023 and 2025: the Bakhmut (2023)–Soledar (2023)–Siversk (2025) line. In 2024, the Russian army focused on the southern Donbas, capturing Ukrainian strongholds on the outskirts of Donetsk and pushing westward into the countryside to neutralize the Pokrovsk hub, which fell between late 2025 and early 2026. Concurrently, the battle for Toretsk, which began in 2024, continued into 2025, ultimately allowing Russian forces to reach Kostiantynivka by the end of the year. ➡️Currently, the Russian 🇷🇺 army is pushing in several directions. After breaching the line in the south, it has seized part of Kostiantynivka (fighting is still ongoing in the north of the city and is expected to last until early autumn) and is continuing its advance toward Druzhkivka—the last stronghold before Kramatorsk—along two axes: from Kostiantynivka and from Pokrovsk. ➡️At the same time, the Russian army is advancing toward Sloviansk, although its chances of entering the city from the east appear limited given the terrain. An urban battle for Mykolaivka, east of Sloviansk, is expected to take place in the autumn, while Russian forces will be able to set up artillery and drone positions to strike Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the coming months. ➡️To the north, the battle for Lyman—which was expected to break the tactical deadlock around Sloviansk—has stalled. The main reason is a counter-attack by the Ukrainian 3rd Corps, which threatens to trap thousands of soldiers north of the city. Even if Lyman were to fall, crossing the Donets River poses a major obstacle to any advance on Sloviansk. ➡️Finally, an offensive is underway at Dobropillia, in the western part of the Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are attempting to approach this city from Pokrovsk; Dobropillia serves as the southern flank of the Donbas "fortress." It is backed by several defensive lines and smaller towns leading to Barvinkove, the logistical hub that currently anchors the entire Donbas region. Right now, 3 logistics roads remain, leading to Oleksandrivka (and then Pavlohrad), Barvinkove (and then Lozova) and Izium (and then Kharkiv). These roads are not yet under constant fire, but FPV drones are already operating in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, while airstrikes continue to fall in the area. I do not believe there is a set timetable, but I think we can make some assumptions about the next stages of the battle. The fall of Kostiantynivka will be complete by autumn, paving the way for the battle for Oleksievo-Druzhkivka. The battle for Druzhkivka could begin before the end of the year, though this is open to doubt given the time required to secure its approaches. The battle for Dobropillia could also start soon. Given the intensity of the fighting and the Ukrainian resistance, the war for the Donbas could drag on into 2027 and perhaps even longer. This battle remains central to the conflict, although we must also keep an eye on other fronts—particularly the southern front and the border areas.

2 months ago, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched a counter-attack north of Lyman, in order to relieve pressure on the city At the same time, Russian 🇷🇺 forces continue to infiltrate the city and attempt to isolate it from all sides. Very few informations filtered regarding Ukrainian counter-attack in the direction of Lyman. As the operation is still ongoing, I will outline the situation as it stood a little over a month ago, without going into much details. In late May, as Russian infiltrations into Lyman were increasing, the Azov 3rd Army Corps, a well-trained unit and one of the Ukrainian army's best, launched an attack to relieve pressure on the city. The offensive began with a mechanized assault that penetrated deep behind enemy lines; only a few fiber-optic drones that had escaped jamming managed to strike a handful of armored vehicles. Ukrainian troops, deployed behind Russian lines, were able to clear several villages, thereby expanding the "gray zone." Several geolocated videos show Ukrainian positions more than 5 km deep within the "red zone" on the DeepState map; notably, there has been a complete absence of footage showing a Russian presence in the area for over two months. Starting in late June, Russian aviation intervened to stabilize the situation, carrying out more than 200 airstrikes in the area during July, an indication of significant Ukrainian advances. The situation I am describing reflects the state of affairs in late June; operations have continued since then, with the most recent geolocated video from the sector dating to July 2 (both sides have published almost no footage, confirming what I previously said regarding OPSEC). Elsewhere, Russia continued to launch deep infiltrations, especially on both sides of the Siverki Donets river where they advanced. The town of Lyman, a Ukrainian stronghold remains firmly under Ukrainian control, with regularly Russian soldiers reaching the city center after a long walk. The main challenge for Ukraine is the difficulty to organize logistics, with strikes everyday on key roads and bridge over the Donets. Further north, Russian infiltrations continue in the forest areas near Pryshyb, with regular attempts to target drone and artillery teams. In total, more than 450 airstrikes fell on the yellow circles I added on my map, mainly in June. The situation in Lyman is not particularly good for Ukraine, but there is still hope the situation can improve if the 3rd Corps offensive succeeds, which would give Lyman additionnal months to survive and Sloviansk some air. Despite many people saying this is a secondary front, I disagree. This area is directly linked to the main Donbass front, with Lyman being the northern flank of remaining Ukrainian Donbass. Lyman has a similar role to Kostiantynivka or Dobropilla, as the entrance door of the fortified valley. Further update will come later, when informations will be more numerous.

⚡️ 2 Skelia soldiers charged with torturing comrades as abuse investigation widens. The investigation followed a report by the Ukrainian outlet Babel, which alleged widespread abuse within the regiment and documented at least 26 noncombat deaths among recruits between late 2025 and spring 2026.

For months, the situation on the Sloviansk front has been deteriorating The new Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian 🇺🇦Army, Mykhailo Drapaty, must respond as the first Russian 🇷🇺 units have reached approximately 10 km east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Since the fall of Siversk in December 2025, attributed to errors by several local commanders, this front has been the most successful for the Russian army throughout 2026. Not only have Russian forces managed to consolidate their hold on Siversk, which had resisted them for three years, but they have also pushed 10 to 15 km westward, drawing significantly closer to the last major urban centers of the Donbas: Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. While a future assault on the cities from the east seems unlikely due to the terrain, this strategic position allows the Russians to monitor and bomb the urban area and its logistical supply lines. Three weeks ago, the first Russian infiltrators were captured in Mykolaivka, a town about 10 km east of Sloviansk. Recently, Russian soldiers have been spotted in buildings on the eastern edge of the town; this could signal the imminent start of the battle for the town, which serves as the eastern gateway to Sloviansk. Russian forces are advancing on Mykolaivka along two main routes, following the Siverskyi Donets River and moving through forests via Kryva Luka, Pyskunivka, and Starodubivka, while taking cover in houses and wooded areas. Countering these infiltrations is difficult due to the dense forests along the Donets River. The second infiltration route runs through a forest north of Rai Oleksandrivka. Russian forces have been actively using this forest for over a month to enter Rai Oleksandrivka. This small village, seemingly insignificant at first glance, is actually of strategic importance, as the surrounding high ground overlooks the city of Sloviansk. In recent weeks, Russian forces have been consolidating their hold on the village and the surrounding heights, even though Ukrainian troops still maintain positions in many areas. Further south, the situation is hardly better. Russian forces are infiltrating daily along the Donets Canal, with some units crossing this canal, which serves as a makeshift fortification, to advance toward Kramatorsk. Several villages west of the canal have thus shifted into the "gray zone," a source of growing concern for the Ukrainian command. If these infiltrations continue, we could see the first Russian soldiers in the Bilenke district of Kramatorskbefore the end of the year. Why is the situation so difficult for the Ukrainians? First, the geography complicates the Ukrainian defense: the Donets Canal aids the Ukrainian defense just as much as it facilitates the Russian offensive. The situation here mirrors the one described yesterday, but in reverse. Crossing the canal, reaching Mykolaivka, and massing troops there is a highly complex undertaking. The Russian army will face the same challenge: crossing the canal, particularly around the Sloviansk power plant and its network of waterways, will come at a very high cost, especially given the extensive fortifications the Ukrainians have built in the area over recent months. Consequently, it is highly unlikely that the battle for Sloviansk will begin this year, not least because the fighting in Mykolaivka is likely to be prolonged. Another key factor is the high frequency of Russian airstrikes targeting forests and buildings, particularly in Mykolaivka, as illustrated in the map included in the following tweet. Ultimately, Ukrainian resources in the area are insufficient - comprising only five or six brigades - though doing better is difficult given the local logistical challenges. Russian losses in the sector are significant, particularly when troops are forced to advance across open ground; nevertheless, this has not halted their steady progress this year. In the coming weeks, attention must shift to the Donbas, specifically the area between the Donets River and Dobropilla, where the Russian army is concentrating its forces. Elsewhere, however, potential offensive opportunities are opening up for Kyiv. Thank you for following this new analysis. Sources include open source data, sattelite images, geolocated videos and some private sources.