two weeks ago i went on @swyx's pod and said some things that i... should not have said. a lot has happened since then, i owe you all an apology. i'm sorry that i was right about every single thing. a) re megakernels are dead why are megakernels useful? you spend two months writing a kernel to save time on launch overhead and poor inter-kernel overlap. you had PDL but then people said it wasn't perfect, that you could still get some marginal gains due to straggler CTAs and therefore- wait, sorry, I forgot, Rubin fixes that (kernel two needs 10 CTAs and kernel one has seven finished and three straggling, kernel two launches seven of its CTAs). given a long enough timeline, it all evens out. no serious inference provider is using a 67k loc hand-fused forward pass kernel in production, and the teams doing that are doing so out of pure research. dead. b) re ASICs are dead i'm sorry. to be specific: data-center transformer-inference ASIC companies (not naming any) who etched the arch into silicon have bet on architectural convergence. read kimi's architecture. read deepseek. qwen. we did not converge, and probably will not. dead. c) re gpu kernel dev is dead this one kind of hurts because it is (was) my job. gpu kernel optimization is the single most RL-able task in existence correct=check_correctness(kernel, shape) for shape in shapes if all(correct): time(kernel) give an agent ncu cli and an mcp with nvidia's tribal knowledge and it's done. dead. d) re NVIDIA is scared of AMD humans hate programming AMD. i'm sorry. it's just true. fine taking a performance hit as long as i don't have to touch rocm or a programming paradigm that says a warp is 64 threads (wtf?)...but an agent does not... so assuming software no longer moat, HBM capacity and bandwidth matter, and currently on perf / price they're goated. 'bUt NvIdIa iS gOaTeD oN hArDwArE sOfTwArE cOdEsIgN' and that's the new moat. watch how much tooling they open source to get kernel devs on nvidia. apologies all.