Thoughts... The sweet spot is having enough exposure to wake up excited to open the charts and see what the fuck happened overnight, while still being able to sleep like a kid. Enough to care, never enough to fear.

I’ve said this before and will say it again (I’ve seen many good soldiers killed by it): Leverage should be understood as an accelerator of time rather than a multiplier of risk. I am almost certain the person cranking it to 10x isn’t sitting there thinking, “I would like ten times the variance.” Nah, he is thinking: I have 100K and I just cannot tolerate how fucking long the unlevered path to 1M takes. The algo has completely fried our sense of how long that path is supposed to take. It disproportionately feeds you the 20-year-old who supposedly made $30M or the token that hit 100x overnight, and now with social trading you get to watch all of it happen live. So you end up recalibrating your clock against outliers. Add to that the fact that we are now being called uncs and plumbers at 30, and suddenly making it at 35 feels mediocre. It’s all a lie.....DO NOT believe it.....It’s an artificial deadline for success created by capitalist propaganda. If you are thinking or using leverage, understand what the actual fuck you are getting into. The more leverage you use, the less room there is for anything to go wrong. At zero leverage, being “right eventually” can still make you money, but as you crank it up, “eventually” starts disappearing. Being right on direction is no longer enough if the move happens too late or price takes the wrong path before getting there. And it gets worse once you understand ergodicity.....If you are a leverage junkie, you probably haven’t heard the word, so let me introduce you to it: Your outcome is determined by the sequence you live through, not by the average across hypothetical outcomes, and if one event in that sequence wipes you out, everything that could have happened after it becomes irrelevant. So when you say, “I only have a 10% chance of liquidation,” you are usually thinking about that trade in isolation. But you are going to trade again and again.....keep introducing a small probability of terminal failure into a long enough sequence and eventually that probability has a very good chance of finding you. Which is why the obsession with being early in life becomes so destructive. It makes you waste the one thing you have in abundance: future attempts. Do not collateralize them through leverage because you think you are running out of time. Get rid of that moronic idea.....You are not old at 30, 50 or 60.

Thoughts... Be careful who you take your inputs from....Most of these pseudo-"celebrity traders" I keep seeing on my TL are a pure illusion of intellectual depth created by their "status." Most seem to turn the camera on with absolutely no fucking idea what they are about to spit out, so they end up badly reconstructing some combination of the things they have read, heard, or absorbed from people further upstream. Epistemic laundering, basically.... Takes move from the source to someone with more distribution, while 99% of the reasoning that made the OG take useful gets lost, and what survives is a broken conclusion. Issue being that most of these "traders" got their epistemic authority through luck, fraud, or some fraud godfather, and people end up mistaking that status for experience or knowledge. If what I am saying makes sense, then put some effort into getting your takes from the source. If you find a clip with a good take, trace it upstream...The closer you get to the person who produced the idea, the more intact the reasoning is, and the easier it becomes to dissect it, challenge it, or decide to believe it.

I think that maybe, just maybe, when it comes to the SpaceX IPO, CT is the contrarian and not the consensus. I think there is a higher than 50% chance that, for the first time in a while, we are not the echo chamber. Maybe the echo chamber is normieland, and CT is the insightful room. So when I see people posting “everyone is bearish, so it might be wrong,” ......I wonder. Everyone where? CT has been exposed to this exact setup countless times. We are seasoned on these launches. We have a trained eye for this pattern. Hyped launch. Massive brand. Limited float. Huge implied valuation. Everyone wants access. We saw this through every high-FDV TGE in the token sale meta, And if I am right, SpaceX will follow the same exact pattern, because it is the same setup, to the power of 10. It will follow what I call the "LONG U" Seasoned ruggees, about to be spectators of a global rug.