I bought Henan Shijia Photons Technology Co., Ltd. (Shijia Photons / 仕佳光子, stock code: in the deep. It operates an IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) model covering the full process: chip design, wafer manufacturing, chip processing, packaging, and testing.
Especially Active chips: DFB, FP, EML laser chips.
Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd.
The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high.
AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029)
Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years"
Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years.
Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments.
We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix).
Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales…
I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.
We are on the dumbest timeline.
The golden age of unhinged silicon.
Take your shot or forever wonder what could have been.
The king bleeds, long live the king.
-"存为王"