anyways, for the liquid fund or altcoin players who are sidelined on-chain and waiting for the fabled alt season, here's my high conviction play
firstly, imo there are two big risks w this thesis - first, the fact that on-chain has been very hot (hot ball of money is there) ; and secondly, that crypto x ai play has been left for dead due to many failures that have no pmf (only vvv works, and yes, this is a crypto x ai token)
decentralized models - failed ; gpu renting - failed ; agents - failed;
these risks cut both ways - one, you are pre-positioning for the "eventual puck" - but it may never come, and i may be stuck in this position that does nothing. But if it DOES come, then this is under-positioned and offer asymmetric upside and has good r/r. you can't have your cake and eat it two
but the silver lining is - looking at VVV's success, we can conclude that market DOES have appetite, but for things that *work*. and alts HAVE just done a 2-4x since the bottom, and have just been chilling, so all things considered, odds are in your favour
now for the thesis
- n of 1 vertical, practically impossible to copy bc it's relationship driven biz in an atomized world (not bits)
- right place, right time, jensen started gpu financing - was laughed at 1y+ ago but now it's starting to gain traction
- also, in a vertical of crypto, like mentioned earlier, has been left for dead, yet has shown strong pmf in their metrics, and has the right tailwinds of bringing RWA yield on-chain, good tokenomics, in a secular high growth vertical (AI)
- tvl up and to the right, closed sharon ai (leopold holding) + few other neos
- overloaded with borrow demand, could write 10x loan TVL (3bn) in next three months.
- top of funnel ~13bn in loan originations; constraint is not demand, but deposits ; aave + sky integration upcoming to provide material boost over the next few months
- listed on every exchange - upbit, robinhood, binance, coinbase
- expecting tokenomics update on value accrual in next few months. founder has shared public views on how he thinks about value accrual, expect this to be very positive. he takes lessons from HYPE / VVV ;
- as an example, 65bn nasdaq listed tech company bought tokens three months ago
- team just hired ex CRWV CFO as Senior Advisor
- 80m MC with no unlocks till q1 27
- oh , and chart looks like this
fucking send it
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