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Kyle
@zeroxkyle
discretionary investor | sub for investment analysis research @defillama | prev. @defiancecapital @artemis not financial advice
313 Following    62.1K Followers
RT @Evan_ss6: It was a little over 2 years ago when I capitulated to crypto being mostly a joke. 2+ years later, here we are, glorifying se…
u know in hindsight, when gcr said long degeneracy and the endless casino, he really was just talking about pumpfun and memecoins wasn't he
Pumpfun has officially lost the plot. I'm not sure what their endgame is here, but I know for a fact that nobody is going to read “Be the next Kimchi” and suddenly feel an overwhelming urge to sign up for Pumpfun and start buying shitters. I never thought we'd reach the point where this needs explaining, but absolutely nobody outside CT knows who Kimchi is. And a good chunk of CT knows that the whole “made $40M trading Trump” story is straight up larp and what he was actually doing, was deploying and rugging coins 24/7. The fact that, out of every ace this multibillion-dollar company could have up its sleeve, they chose to make Kimchi their poster boy speaks volumes about how out of touch they are with the space, the community that made them what they are, and the outside world as a whole. I'm telling you, there isn't a single normal adult who wakes up in the morning wanting to “trade internet trends.” Not a single one. Because what the fuck does trading internet trends even mean? These guys made their bread from memecoins, and whatever name they built for themselves in this industry was a direct consequence of coins that actually went somewhere. Pumpfun wouldn't have taken off the way it did without Sharkcat, and it wouldn't have captured the market share it did during AI season without GOAT and Fartcoin launching there. People buying “internet trends” with a lifespan of 24 hours, only to get thrown into endless PvP against increasingly sophisticated players across a dozen different pairs, is precisely why Pumpfun struggles to break into the mainstream and onboard retail that actually STAYS. And these absolute idiots have somehow decided to make that their entire selling point. You genuinely couldn't make this shit up. The average person Pumpfun is supposedly trying to onboard is drowning in bills, trying to make ends meet, and navigating a society that's becoming increasingly isolated. He doesn't give a fuck about speculating on internet trends. He probably doesn't even recognize most of them. What he wants, whether he realizes it or not, is to feel like he belongs somewhere. A place where he can make internet friends who share his humor, aesthetics, and beliefs. Somewhere he can log in after a shitty day, talk shit with like-minded people, and actually feel like he's part of something. A fucking community. And the funny thing is that memecoins, of all things, can genuinely provide that. I think people massively underestimate how many guys are sitting at their desks right now, aimlessly scrolling the internet, who would happily spend money to be part of an online community where they can make friends, share jokes, and rally behind something together. Take NEET, for example. I'm convinced that if you explained the whole “not open to work” movement to a thousand normies, a surprisingly large percentage would find the idea of joining a global community of people who share that attitude genuinely appealing. Now imagine telling them there's also a coin attached to that movement, and that if enough people rally behind it, they can potentially make money together. That's a much easier sell than asking them to gamble on whichever celebrity happened to tweet something stupid fifteen minutes ago. And it's not just NEET. Think of all the internet subcultures, recognizable characters, aesthetics, and movements that people can actually identify with. Things that give someone a reason to hold a coin, talk about it, make content around it, and bring their friends into it without needing a new catalyst every six hours. That's how you build something that lasts. Instead of building their campaign around any of that, Pumpfun decided to spend millions telling people they could become the next Kimchi, a complete nobody to the audience they're supposedly trying to attract, and inviting them to gamble on internet trends. They actually spent millions of dollars on this stunt. It's genuinely incredible how disconnected they've become from reality, their own customer base, and seemingly basic common sense. My father used to always tell me to never attribute to malice what can be attributed to stupidity. And I'd genuinely love to attribute Pumpfun's incompetence to stupidity, but that's not the case here. They've made hundreds of millions from coins that people actually wanted to own. Coins that went to hundreds of millions in market cap, made entire communities rich, and brought thousands of new people into the ecosystem. They know this model works because it's the very model that made them rich. But if having everyone PvP the same Elon tweet through twelve different pairings and launch modes means they can squeeze another 10% out of trading fees, I'm increasingly convinced they'll happily sacrifice everything else to get it. And at this point, it's becoming pretty difficult to pretend otherwise. I think there are fatigue signals everywhere, and every day we're getting a little closer to the end of the Pumpfun dynasty despite a bunch of terminal badges trying day and night to convince you otherwise. Someone will eventually build a place where people actually want to stay, where communities are worth more than the fees generated from destroying them. And when that happens, I genuinely don't think Pumpfun will understand why everyone left.
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?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? turns out the bulls were right - don't worry about btc quantum risk, because the internet would go down first
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🚨DEFCON 1🚨 In a few hours, a critical vulnerability that affects ~70% of web sites will be disclosed. It allows an attacker to upload and execute arbitrary code. It's probably best if you stop browsing the internet for the rest of the week.
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the gist is that generally crypto is like an ouroboros - no external demand, any unicorn app has to depend on internal participants - launchpads as the best example of this. revenue numbers of launchpads (and i'm talking purely launchpads) are usually spiky but with no consistent growth over time because meme launches are an extremely crypto native thing that doesn't attract outside users perps on the other hand, can see increasing growth over time as more and more people (non crypto people) trade on the venue. same with stablecoin demand, payments, inference usage, etc. and that's what you have to long. stuff that trends up over time due to extraneous demand, that is not reliant on crypto liquidity growing larger over time defi falls into the former category, because "lending/borrowing tvl" is just such a crypto native metric that is wholly dependent on crypto native userbase growing which is just a foregone conclusion this era. same with other aspects like "bridging volume", or "dex volumes" etc. not to say they can't make money, i just believe that it is much more +EV to just have longs on the latter type of assets with hockey stick growth from external sources, just because it makes it so easy to hold
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genuinely believe that the simplest strategy this cycle is to buy what's real - everyone seems to know this but no one seems to actually do it and the moment risk is on people buy starknet and arbitrum like what's up with that? just buy whichever tokens exhibit this
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do u guys remember how 2 cycles ago there was a dichotomy between NFT CT and CT CT i feel the same way now, just that this time with meme CT and CT CT like idfk who kimchi is, and i'm just shocked a post like this has 300k views lmfao we are all living in k shaped realities
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genuinely believe that the simplest strategy this cycle is to buy what's real - everyone seems to know this but no one seems to actually do it and the moment risk is on people buy starknet and arbitrum like what's up with that? just buy whichever tokens exhibit this
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man there are so many projects led by S tier founders / teams this cycle, with genuinely value accretive token structures how can you not be bullish?
man there are so many projects led by S tier founders / teams this cycle, with genuinely value accretive token structures how can you not be bullish?
Unitree Introducing: H2-X Kung Fu Legend Guardian🤖 Powerful performance to serve and guard you, with a maximum endurance of approximately 8 hours. Please use the robot safely and in a friendly manner.
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glad we have evan telling everyone 10m is in fact, not enough, and that 25m is the minimum to genuinely make it. CT no longer has to debate about it. ggs
Once you sustain $5-10m net worth, you've made it. Almost. Rich enough to be comfortable, poor enough for one bad bet to send you back. Here's what actually changes at this tier, and how to get to $25m 👇 -Self-funding, barely. A 3% draw on $7.5m is $225k/yr pre-tax, ~$150k after. You can quit but probably shouldn't. Earned income is still the cheapest capital you'll ever get plus it’s more reliable.
-Risk capacity is real but finite. A venture bet going to zero is a bad year. Size so the worst case costs you a year or two, not a tier demotion.
-Borrow, carefully. SBLOCs work here, just at worse spreads than the private bank crowd gets. Keep LTV under 20% so a drawdown doesn’t become a margin call.
-Skip the fancy structures. Estate exemption is $15m per person. You don't have an estate tax problem, you have an income tax problem. QSBS, solo 401k, tax-loss harvesting, no state tax residency or Puerto Rico if extreme/mobile. Boring, cheap, compounding.
-Claude Max is 0.03% of your net worth. Fading the singularity at this tier is a choice. How to get to the next tier: 👇
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couple days ago i said equities down crypto up and i still believe that holds true. plur puts it well, and on top of that i'd just like to add that equities is coming off a 2y+ bull market in AI names whereas crypto just underwent a 1y+ bear market it's cinema
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Counterintuitively crypto is good for this low liquidity environment because the space is so small in the grand scheme of things. Despite money being tight at the moment, there exists an immense desire for retail traders to speculate, as we are in the later stages of a long cycle in risk appetite. Liquidity has a tendency to flow towards corners of the market where it can have an impact. There are fewer than 10 viable coins and it doesn't take much to move them. In terms of the competing destinations for flows: gold has been challenged for a while now and AI is weighed down by concerns around financing availability and model-level pricing power. It is hilarious and upside down that crypto would be the beneficiary of these conditions but it also makes sense in a strange way. At the end of the day, crypto is a tiny financial playground that is driven by the memetic consensus of a narrow group of people. In that sense it can transcend broader macro conditions.
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GM degens, miss you all. Have been sick forever after Token As mentioned the bull market has returned, still maintain this view After some cleansing of leverages in the past 2 weeks, $BTC and alts have corrected to levels worth bidding again. As long as 80k is held, the correction is over and BTC is likely going for another leg up towards ~95k which could be the final leg up this year We should see that within 2 weeks. R/R still high with ~3k of downside for ~12k+ of upside, not to mention if you bid the good alts. Should I share what alts I've been bidding? What drives this move would be capital rotation from those who got crushed in the semis capitulation and even for Gold maxis like @PeterSchiff. After all, BTC has been more resilient than Gold with a lower drawdown since the last high in Sep, and is better positioned for another leg up The 500m+ ETF inflow yesterday was one of the hints
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NEAR protocol and its team are out executing almost every other L1 protocol team here, extremely impressive for them to have so much positive development in one single quarter.
we are at that point where basically if you even leave your laptop out in the open you will get drained what is the point of software these days
PSA: Do NOT use public WiFi or shady DNS servers for the next few weeks. SSL is practically broken and you can be attcked with an MITM attack. Your ISP and other intermediaries can also spy on you. Use a trusted VPN. It will take a few days at least to flush out this crap CA.
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i tend to agree
if you aren't paying attention to venice ai, you should be. - 5 million users - API Calls are up 400% since July this is fueling $10.4M/yr burn for base:0xacfe6019ed1a7dc6f7b508c02d1b04ec88cc21bf
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this is gonna be a fun cycle
MAYBE I WAS WRONG ABOUT BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY I wrote about how I always used to make fun of the guys who said things like "Bitcoin is speculative, but the underlying blockchain technology is interesting." And now I think maybe they kinda had a point.
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Would you rather own PUMP or SOL? To me, it’s not as obvious as it may seem by pure analytics. You must think about the TAM… @zeroxkyle @Tradermayne @DefinitiveFi $PUMP $SOL
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in case it wasn't clear enough, i'm bearish equities and bullish crypto
pretty sure we've reached the point where S tier operators are realizing that it is far more efficient to drive value to your token rather than have an equity vehicle and pray for an acquisition / IPO - and so it makes way more sense to just "do the right thing" creating internet capital markets and making every liquid fund's dream come true
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