My take: When will Tesla’s new initiatives make a significant difference on the stock price?
Wall Street needs to see more “evidence” to include the new business in the models. I also think the rerates will happen in stages as Wall Street keeps expanding out the assessable market for each product like FSD or RoboTaxi. Some potential triggers:
♦️A) There is a Surprise like Nationwide RoboTaxi regulation or OEM leasing FSD or
♦️B) WS sees revenues that move the needle on new business lines. We are seeing partial rerates on base assumptions now for FSD take rates and Tesla energy, but only placeholders for Optimus and RoboTaxi.
♦️C) WS expands both the TAM and/or market share.
Events like these will propel TSLA to a higher range where we don’t see TSLA return to today’s prices. IMO they are coming soon; just not yet. We also need supply constraints - like chips - solved.
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Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that SpaceX ( and Tesla ( share technology, talent, and infrastructure under a common mission to transform energy into intelligence. The firm believes that Musk and his team are convinced that value creation in artificial intelligence over the next decade will depend on who can build, power, connect, and equip AI in the physical world. Both companies have established their own physical AI capabilities that can work in tandem and are gradually closing the gap between them.
The firm maintains its “Overweight” rating on SpaceX and a price target of $300; it also sets a price target of $400 for Tesla.
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Resale Value of Used New Energy Vehicles: Tesla Tops the List at 83.5%
According to industry sources, Tesla’s robotics team began factory audits last week at supply chain companies such as Toupu Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Joyson Electronics. These companies primarily supply core electromechanical components, including joint modules, actuators, and precision structural parts. “Prior to these factory audits, all of these companies had already received orders for Tesla’s humanoid robot, though the order volumes varied. The audits will assess the quality and compliance of the relevant production lines, and production will begin shortly after they are approved,” the source noted. The industry insider also stated that the factory audits are not limited to Ningbo, as rumored online; Tesla’s robotics team’s current visits also cover supply chain companies in the Yangtze River Delta region, including Hangzhou and Shanghai
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Six Major U.S. Automobile Associations Send Joint Letter to President Trump: Call for a Ban on Chinese Automakers Selling, Importing, and Building Factories in the U.S.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: From January through August, the top ten passenger car manufacturers by sales volume collectively sold 4.014 million vehicles. Compared with the same period last year, SAIC Motor and Tesla saw sales growth to varying degrees, while sales at other manufacturers declined to varying degrees.
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Samsung Electronics' Taylor plant recently began wafer production using a 2-nanometer process, marking the start of trial production for the AI5 chip. Starting next year, some of the plant's production lines will begin manufacturing AI5 chips for Tesla and will conduct final mass production validation.
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Yonhap News Agency: Solidigm, a subsidiary of SK Hynix, is considering building its first NAND flash memory factory in the United States.
Hyundai CEO: Before launching our in-house autonomous driving technology, the company needs time to collect data from millions of vehicles
To be honest, it’s a bit late. it’s going to be very difficult to catch up with Tesla’s lead
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I really miss 2020.
Back then, a single news story could send Tesla’s stock up 10% in pre-market, intraday, and after-hours trading.
That was truly a crazy year.
I wouldn’t dare predict when 2020 will be repeated,
but I think it won’t be long now.
Hold on and keep it
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Goldman Slashes Tesla Q3 Delivery Forecast to 435,000
My personal estimate is 450,000 units.
According to the Nikkei, the Japanese and U.S. governments are in talks regarding the construction of a semiconductor factory. The project is part of an investment plan in the U.S. agreed upon during tariff negotiations between the two sides and is expected to be worth several trillion yen
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Europe cannot withstand the dumping of Chinese automotive products; once Europe’s industrial base is destroyed, Europe will be completely overwhelmed. Tragically, bureaucracy in Europe is so severe that action is taken too late and too slowly.
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The European Union has asked China to voluntarily reduce its exports of hybrid vehicles to Europe in an effort to prevent the two sides from sliding into a trade war.
The Financial Times
Market News: Tesla recently placed a new order for approximately 5,000 units with its suppliers. This marks the first mass-production order in the thousands, following previous trial production orders for several hundred units. Additionally, Tesla is accelerating factory audits for its Optimus humanoid robot supply chain in China, visiting suppliers in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Xiamen. These dual signals—factory audits and orders—signal that Optimus has officially transitioned from engineering prototypes to a reproducible manufacturing phase. Industry observers believe that Tesla’s visits to Chinese suppliers further confirm the acceleration of its mass production timeline.
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Yeah, since FSD has not yet been approved for use, Cybercab can only be used for demonstration purposes.
Tesla China: This Cybercab event is intended to showcase the company’s product design and technological concepts; it does not involve any plans for the launch or sale of the Cybercab in the Chinese market. Tesla also has no current plans to launch autonomous ride-hailing services in mainland China
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Tesla China: This Cybercab event is intended to showcase the company’s product design and technological concepts; it does not involve any plans for the launch or sale of the Cybercab in the Chinese market. Tesla also has no current plans to launch autonomous ride-hailing services in mainland China
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On July 31, Tesla China announced a vehicle software update (version 2026.14.13) for the Model 3, Model Y, Model S, and Model X. The update began rolling out in phases on July 31, 2026. One of the main features of this update is the “Doubao Large Model”—an intelligent voice assistant, the Chinese version of Grok.
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