Paper Trade 软 Rug 了?
10 月 20 日,Papertrade 官方突然宣布,现阶段没有开放 PAPER 代币转让的计划。这意味着,用户通过交易亏损挖到的 PAPER,短期内仍无法自由出售。
消息一出,Paragon 随即暂停 PAPER 永续合约交易,Aster 也宣布下架相关盘前合约。
1️⃣为什么不让 PAPER 流通?
由于 Papertrade 允许用户直接与协议资金池对赌,亏损可以获得 PAPER 代币,质押后分享协议的 USDC 收益。
但如果 PAPER 能在外部市场做空,攻击者就可能一边操纵 BTC、ETH 价格从资金池获利,一边做空 PAPER 赚取代币下跌的收益,让攻击变得更有利可图。
除了暂缓流通,团队还宣布了两项调整:
1. 提高短线套利成本: 调整小幅波动区间内的平仓费用,主要针对高频机器人策略。
2. 修改 PAPER 增发规则: 未来每 100 万美元符合条件的交易亏损,约增发当前供应量 0.1% 的 PAPER,长期将逐步稀释早期持有人的收益份额。
2️⃣交易挖矿八年了,Papertrade 又玩出了新花样
Papertrade 的亏损挖矿,其实让我想到了 2018 年的 FCoin,以及后来的 ZKFair。
当年 FCoin 推出「交易即挖矿」,用户支付手续费获得 FT,持币还能分享交易所 80% 的收入。后来 ZKFair 把这个玩法搬到了 L2,用户消耗 Gas 获得 ZKF,质押后分享网络手续费利润。
如今 Papertrade 又换了一种玩法:直接把交易亏损变成 PAPER,质押后分享协议收益。
问题在于,用户亏损多少,不等于协议最终赚了多少。PAPER 可以随着亏损不断增发,但可分配收益未必同步增长。
2018 年,CZ 曾评价 FCoin 的交易挖矿是「变相 ICO,而且是高价 ICO」。他当时还指出,交易挖矿本质上是换一种方式卖币,平台长期有没有价值,最终还是要看有没有真实用户。
3️⃣KOL 观点汇总
冷静冷静再冷静
@hexiecs|XHunt 排名:1322
观点:这次更新对早期刷Paper的人是利空(代币短期内不TGE,且份额会被更快稀释);但对项目是好事(增强对后来真实用户的激励),成败取决于1000x零滑点产品能否吸引真实需求用户,即使没有farmer项目也不会死。
alvin617.eth
@Alvin0617|XHunt 排名:1687
观点:这次改动(代币继续不可转让 + 调整铸造曲线)是为了防止早期优势固化或被攻击、同时吸引用户持续交易,让机制更接近赌场“返佣”(把抽水按比例退给玩家)。
妙蛙种子
@NintendoDoomed|XHunt 排名:4719
观点:Papertrade上线才10天就以“防恶意做空”为由不开放代币转账、又涨机器人手续费并改增发稀释老持有人,本质是在给韭菜发越攒越贬值的积分卡,而非真正返佣,套路熟悉得像要变成“欢乐豆”。
深潮
@TechFlowPost |XHunt 排名:680
Papertrade上线仅10天就中途改规则、焊死$PAPER转账并大幅稀释早期持有者,让靠“亏钱挖矿”押注先发优势的玩家既无法变现又面临无限稀释,陷入被反撸的被动局面
黑色马里奥
@blmario669|XHunt 排名:39303
观点:Papertrade不开放 $PAPER 转账,亏钱换来的代币只能靠后续不断有人继续亏损才能分红回本,收益高度不确定且会被持续稀释,这种玩法只适合麻吉这种超级赌狗,普通散户别特意去亏钱挖矿,偷鸡不成蚀把米。
最尴尬的还是早期用户。
原本的逻辑是交易亏损获得 $PAPER,再靠质押分红或者未来卖币回本。现在卖币遥遥无期,持币份额还可能持续被稀释。
Papertrade 选择优先保护协议的长期生存,但代价是把更多不确定性留给了早期参与者。
A note on transferability.
Papertrade is a complicated primitive, and managing it from a risk standpoint is a complicated problem. The PAPER token is far more integrated into the economics of the primitive than most tokens are in their respective protocols today, and, broadly, was designed to act as a counter insolvency incentive coupled with a rebate mechanism to losing traders. Market makers and exchanges are by far the two most profitable businesses in crypto, and our goal was to try and externalise as much of their margins back to users as possible. We are now just over a week into the life of papertrade and we are becoming increasingly confident that this is both possible, but also a likely outcome as agentic led software becomes the norm.
As it stands, the paper token traded as a perp becomes a leveraged bet on bankroll solvency - and being able to short bankroll solvency materially changes the payoff curve of a manipulation attack. The target number goes from the bankroll, to the bankroll + short side exposure on paper. We can, and do limit bankroll size specifically to control this payoff curve and ensure it never becomes existentially problematic, but external perp markets are not something we would have any control over if left to float of their own accord. For example, if our bankroll is $10m, an attack costing $15m manipulating the price of bitcoin or ether is not viable. You simply lose money. If however you were also able to put on $10m of PAPER short side exposure, suddenly an attack costing $15m is very viable indeed.
If we were to make the token transferable at this point, we are confident we would quickly enter a state too dangerous to allow any material exposure to be taken on papertrade, an end result that benefits no party beyond the wolves who have done the math on the short and are waiting in the wings with sharpened knives.
We would also like to thank the various perps teams who have reached out about pre-market listings for their understanding and patience regarding this issue, and especially to the paragon team who, despite jumping the gun on us, have behaved with the utmost integrity and transparency once a dialogue was opened.
Perps on PAPER will always act as a self-limiting exposure ceiling for a token with this type of utility, and we think it would be a shame to limit the growth of papertrade to the extent that allowing perps would necessitate. As such, at this juncture we do not have plans to allow off-contract token transferability.
Structurally, papertrade is limited by the quality of the data it receives from hyperliquid, but we strongly believe that hyperliquid has a very large part to play in the future of global exchanges, and expect their books to continue to thicken and strengthen over time.
A note on fees.
Papertrade launched with a deadband fee from entry of 0.2bps. This means you don't earn anything until the price has moved by 0.002% in your favour. Over the months before launch, we played around with many different curves and fee structures affecting exclusively positions closed very close to entry price in order to try and devise a structure that removed the edge against the bankroll low time frame scalp bots have, whilst also minimally impacting the traders around which and for whom the product was devised. We were never able to find anything we were absolutely happy with and so decided to stay with the 0.2bp deadband fee through launch. This has however meant we have had to be very restrictive when it came to certain parameters, such as OI caps.
Now, however, we have enough live data to fully understand exactly which strategies work, and to make the necessary changes to stop them. The changes we are making will have an on hours and off hours fee mode to account for the relative differences in liquidity the hyperliquid books see between these two time periods, and the ease with which low time frame moves are signalled. The changes we are making will only affect positions closed within 6bps of entry (0.06%) in on hours, and 10bps (0.1%) in off hours. Any trades closed above these threshold price shifts will see no change to their fees at all. On a look back to launch basis, these changes affect the profitability of bot strategies roughly 15x more than they do normal traders, for whom a very small proportion of overall winnings come from within this band.
These changes should serve to flatten much of the edge our microfee structure necessarily creates on low time frames, and will help with long term exchange sustainability. This should hopefully allow us to open up parameters such as OI caps a little more so those of you who wish to can put on the size you want to, when you want to.
It is possible these changes are still too lax, and that further revisions to this structure may be necessary going forwards. If so, we will notify users ahead of time.
A note on paper tokenomics.
In conjunction with the fee changes, we will also be implementing a change to the token issuance curve.
Going forward, every $1 lost mints a fixed share of PAPER's supply at that moment, roughly 0.1% of supply per $1M lost (the exact number depends on the mint rate at the time the contracts are upgraded). PAPER minting in and near insolvency will also change, switching from a flat 100 per $1 of loss, to a time weighted multiplier on the curve growing over time, effectively acting as the house running a discounted auction on its own future cash flows. This change also removes the risk of the paper-mint-straddle-attack, temporarily pushing the protocol insolvent by closing only the winning side of a large straddle position and then attempting to mint as much paper as possible.
In the immediate term these changes will only have a very subtle effect on PAPER minting, but in the long run will structurally change the outlook of the system beyond the first few weeks, serving to slowly dilute out older holders and leaving more recent users with an advantage. Reconstituting the PAPER system into something much closer to the exchange rakeback it was intended to be.
We have been very reticent to touch this particular aspect of the system for obvious reasons, but ultimately we believe that these changes provide all users with the optionality to take a smaller piece of a potentially much larger pie than the current dynamic might necessarily allow.
Other, miscellaneous notes.
These contract upgrades will include a few other contract changes, including the addition of builder codes so that builders can utilise papertrade in whatever capacity they choose to. This will be a whitelist only to begin with and we will have more for you later in the week on where/how this will be rolled out. A small change to contract permissions on the reward distributor and a change on how below bust closes are processed by the exchange are also included, largely to block gas griefing attacks.
These changes will be pushed to docs in full over the coming day, and we will further announce once the changes are queued into the timelock pending final security passes, scheduled to go live 24 hours after that point.
Final note.
We'd like to thank everyone that has tried out papertrade over the last 10 days. It has been a labour of love building this product and both of us have been taken aback at all of the positive feedback we have received. We'd also like to thank all those of you who have spent considerable time musing on the system we have built, and much of your advice has been taken onboard and will likely affect the colour of what papertrade becomes going forward. We know some of these changes will be unpopular with some, but we would not be making them if we did not feel them to be absolutely necessary.
- blurr, jez
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