Summary of CPO/NPO Market Update
🚀 NVIDIA CPO: Spectrum-X CPO switches for Scale-out are officially in mass production. Our forecasts: 15k units (2026E) & 100k units (2027E).
*Supply Chain: To support the CPO Scale-Out ramp, TSMC has expanded CPO inspection equipment capacity (notably adding Insertion 2/3 capacity), alongside strong progress from key suppliers in FAU, shuffle boxes, and system assembly.
* Scale-Up Architecture: Rubin Ultra is now expected to adopt a 9-18-9 tray design. While mechanical challenges from the 0.75U height could potentially lead to a reversion to a 10-9-8. This shift will have no impact on optical engine (OE).
📈 OE Shipments: NVIDIA platform optical engine (OE) shipments expected at 6m (2027E) & 19m (2028E). Total industry-wide OE hitting 11m & 40m.
☁️ Amazon Trainium 4: AWS projected to consume 5m (2H27E) & 12m (2028E) OE units, primarily 6.4T specs.
* Trainium 4 will likely have 3 configurations, with two expected to adopt NPO.
💡 Key Plays: LITE/COHR (CW laser upside), Browave (10k+ shuffle box per quarter in 4Q26E, followed by acceleration in 1H27E.), SMTC/MRVL (TIA/Driver), TSEM (NPO PIC exposure).
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