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China (Jul) Retail Sales YoY — Actual: 0.6% vs 1% previous; est 1.5% China (Jul) Retail Sales YTD YoY — Actual: 1.2% vs 1.3% previous; est 1.4%
The cheapest MiCA-regulated crypto exchanges ↓ (bookmark for later) Revolut – 0% / 0.09% OKX – 0.08% / 0.1% Gate – 0.1% / 0.1% Bybit – 0.1% / 0.3% Bitvavo – 0.2% / 0.3% Blockchaincom – 0.2% / 0.4% Bitpanda – 0.3% / 0.3% Kraken – 0.3% / 0.4% Bitstamp – 0.3% / 0.4% Cryptocom – 0.3% / 0.5% Robinhood – 0.5% Bit2Me – 0.5% / 0.6% Coinbase – 0.6% / 1.2% eToro – 1% Swissquote – 1% / 1% Data from @DefiLlama.
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🟥 Things I'm looking at today 🟥 Powered by @yeet Subscribe: Crypto higher, ETH ETF inflow streak ends, Broadcom outlook disappoints Crypto * BTC: 78,893 (+2%) | BTC.D: 59.6% (+0.1%) * ETH: 2,429 (+1%) | BNB: 713 (+4%) | SOL: 102 (+3%) * Fear & Greed: 64 | 24h Liq: $286m * BTC ETFs: +$101M | ETH ETFs: -$48M * Top Gainers: MARSCOIN, BR, AKE, USELESS, PONS * Crypto higher, as ETH ETF inflow streak ends * Strategy holds $66b reserves, second to Berkshire * BTC-Nasdaq correlation falls to 33%: Grayscale * BTC downside limited above $76,350: Bitfinex * Average BTC investor in profit at $80K: Schwab * ETH top pick, expect 3-5x move: Hayes * HYPE enters Hashdex US index ETF at 3.4% weight * Multicoin sells HYPE, has sold 75% from peak * PONS ATH, AI coin winner for on-chain stock pairs * Pons launchpad fees ATH, tops all meme chains * Robinhood Chain DEX volume hits ATH $2.67b * Robinhood Chain RWAs top $100m, 2x in 3 days * Hot money rotating out of AI into crypto: CZ * X foiled mass password-reset attack: US AG * CFTC moves to dismiss CME’s perps lawsuit * Kraken parent delays IPO to Q2 2027 * Wyoming taps Chainlink for FRNT reserves * Tokenised equity holders +134% m/m to ATH * Rain exploit drains $1.1m from card users * Sui protocol Full Sail winds down after exploit * Kalshi seeks CFTC nod for first US WTI perp * NJ asks SC to rule on Kalshi sports contract case * Kalshi faces $500K daily fine in Michigan * DOJ seizes $560K in Hamas funding probe * Singapore proposes ban on stablecoin yield * Coinbase launches 10x BTC futures in Canada Macro * NASDAQ: $26,220 (+0.5%) | Gold: $4,430 (+1%) * Stock market fear at two month high * Trump considers declaring Iran war over * US escorts 40 tankers through Hormuz * US destroyed 28 ships in Hormuz on Tuesday * Rename Hormuz the Trump Strait?: Trump * Iran launches new attacks on US bases * Signs of fresh JPY market intervention * BoJ prefers Quarter-Point rate hike * Global bond rout gathers pace on inflation fears * US Private payrolls data weaker than expected * US subprime auto delinquencies rate hits ATH * Gold, Silver now legal tender in Texas * US gets control of over 65b bbl of Venezuela’s oil * Xi to visit White House on Sep 24: Trump * PBOC fixes CNY at strongest since Feb 2023 * BRICS overtakes G7 in economic output * US moves to isolate Nicaragua * Germany nears destroying all ties with us: Putin * Qatar, UAE turn to LNG ship transfers * 10 years jail for NGOs aiding migrants: Greece * DOJ widens beef price probe to 8 retailers AI & Tech * Broadcom slumps, on weaker Q3 outlook * Researchers fear safety disaster ahead of Astra * OpenAI building automated shutdown for rogue AI * 78% odds OpenAI ships Astra today: Polymarket * Trump admin backs OpenAI in NYT copyright suit * OpenAI sued over Tumbler Ridge mass shooting * Altman warns of AI bubble * Google ships Gemini 3.8 Flash, it 'works harder' * Google avoids break-up in ad-tech antitrust case * Anthropic tightens testing, training safeguards * NYSE used Anthropic Glasswing to fix cyber flaws * Claude Commerce Agents goes open source * Meta drops Muse Spark 1.3, claims beats GPT-5.6 * AI token use will not count in reviews: Meta * Microsoft names half its org 'Agents and Infra' * Wonderful raises $550m at $5b, 2x+ in 6 months * AfterQuery becomes YC's fastest-ever unicorn * AI firms doing 'terrible job' on PR: Bessent * NYC bans AI for students until high school * Snowflake surges after market on stellar Q2 * Nvidia now ~8% of S&P 500, tops 4 sectors * Uber is laying off 10% of staff * Uber to launch robotaxis in London @YEET: Crypto's Casino Just passed $3.2B in lifetime volume! gm
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Tesla is still dominating. In the first half of 2026, they secured over 52% of the U.S. EV market. 1. Tesla: 52.3% — 242,100 units sold 2. Chevrolet: 6.1% — 28,267 3. Hyundai: 5.8% — 26,936 4. Cadillac: 4.7% — 21,855 5. Rivian : 4.7% — 21,770 6. Toyota: 4.7% — 21,767 7. Ford: 3.6% — 16,606 8. Kia: 2.7% — 12,627 9. BMW: 2.4% — 10,790 10. Subaru: 2.2% — 10,064 11. Honda: 1.8% — 8,407 12. Lexus: 1.7% — 7,814 13. GMC: 1.4% — 6,645 14. Lucid: 1.1% — 5,208 15. Volvo: 0.9% — 3,964 16. VW: 0.8% — 3,768 17. Mercedes: 0.6% — 3,010 18. Porsche: 0.6% — 2,967 19. Other Brands: 0.6% — 2,596 20. Nissan: 0.4% — 1,774 21. Audi: 0.4% — 1,697 22. Genesis: 0.1% — 560 23. Dodge: 0.1% — 534 24. Jeep: 0.1% — 418 25. Mini: 0.1% — 307 26. Acura: 0.0% — 108 (Data Via Cox Automotive Q2 2026 EV sales)
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German Government Forecasts Growth Of 0.6% In 2028 - Draft - Raises Forecast For Economic Growth To 1.3% In 2026, Up From 0.5% In April - Raises Forecast For Economic Growth To 1.1% In 2027, Up From 0.9% In April
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Premarket movers Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +1.3%, Meta +0.7%, Alphabet +0.7%, Amazon +0.6%, Nvidia +0.5%, Apple +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%) Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying as Bitcoin rises, putting it on track for its best weekly gain in more than two years. Strategy (MSTR) climbs 8%, Coinbase (COIN) rises 5%. Mining stocks are rising as gold is on track for a third weekly gain after the US Treasury’s unexpected ramp-up in buybacks of long-dated government debt underscored concerns about its burden. Newmont (NEM) rises 3%. Flowers Foods (FLO) falls 4% after the maker of Wonder Bread cut its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year. O-I Glass (OI) rises 5% after Citi upgraded the packaging products company to buy, saying shares appear to be “meaningfully oversold.” OSI Systems (OSIS) falls 13% after the medical device maker’s forecast for fiscal 2027 revenue fell short of the average analyst estimate. Parsons Corp. (PSN) rises 2% after Baird upgraded the IT services company to outperform, saying guidance looks conservatively set. NetEase ADRs (NTES) rise 6% after the company’s core gaming business was seen as resilient and forecast to keep growing steadily. Ross Stores (ROST) climbs 8% after the off-price retailer boosted its earnings per share forecast for the full year.
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Announcing Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3, upgrading Terminal-Bench to 4.0 and adding AutomationBench-AA, an agentic workflow automation benchmark with a private test set. This is a continuation of our rollout of Intelligence Index v5 Changelog (Index v4.2 → Index v4.3): ➤ Terminal-Bench: 2.1 → 4.0, completing our upgrade to the latest version of Terminal-Bench ➤ Replacing 𝜏³-Banking with AutomationBench-AA, our implementation of Zapier's business workflow automation benchmark We are continuing to prioritize keeping Intelligence Index as useful as possible by bringing forward a subset of the changes we had planned for Index v5. Each change in v4.2 and v4.3 stands on its own merits and brings the Index closer to real-world problem solving, adds more private test sets to prevent gaming, and reduces saturation Intelligence Index v4.3 raises the difficulty of agentic coding tasks and broadens the types of agentic workflows tested. Because we use a held-out test set for AutomationBench-AA, in collaboration with @zapier, the weight assigned to evaluations with private tasks or answers increases from 40% to 45%. Category weights are unchanged from v4.2: Agents 30%, Coding 20%, General 30%, Scientific Reasoning 20% Detailed changes: ➤ Upgraded Terminal-Bench 2.1 to 4.0: 66 multi-step tasks testing agents on tasks run in agent sandboxes driven via the terminal, including tasks involving software engineering, machine learning, science, and operations. The 4.0 update recalibrates compute and time allowances, and improves task instructions and verification. We have changed from the Terminus 2 harness to mini-SWE-agent, a minimal, model-agnostic harness. We will also be updating our Coding Agent Index, where we test model and harness pairs, to include Terminal-Bench 4.0 soon ➤ Replaced 𝜏³-Banking with AutomationBench-AA: Our implementation of Zapier’s AutomationBench tests agents on 657 business workflows across simulated applications such as Gmail, Slack, Salesforce, and Jira. Agents must complete task objectives while following business rules. AutomationBench-AA uses Zapier’s private set of 657 tasks, and is built on v1.0.6 Key results: ➤ Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra lead the Intelligence Index: Both Claude Fable 5.1 (max with fallback) and GPT-6 Astra (max) score 53 on Intelligence Index v4.3, followed by Claude Opus 5 (max, 51), Claude Fable 5 (with fallback, 50), Muse Spark 1.3 (max, 48) and GPT-5.6 Sol (max, 47) ➤ GLM-5.3 and Kimi K3 continue to lead open weights models (both at 44): GLM-5.3-Flash (42) is the third strongest open weights model, followed by Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B (40) and DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 (max, 36) ➤ 4 labs occupy the Intelligence vs. Cost per Task Pareto frontier: OpenAI occupies the majority of the cost-efficiency frontier, with all five reasoning efforts of the recently released GPT-6 Astra offering the lowest Cost per Task at their respective levels of intelligence. Claude Fable 5.1 (xhigh, max, 53), GLM-5.3-Flash (42) and MiMo-V2.5-Pro (26) round out the rest of the frontier
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BREAKING: US stock market futures fall as diesel prices hit a record high and Middle East tensions mount: 1. S&P 500: -0.6% 2. Nasdaq 100: -1.1% 3. Dow Jones: -0.4% 4. WTI Crude: +3.0% 5. Brent: +3.0% 6. Natural Gas: +2.0% Today marks day number 197 of the Iran War.
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BREAKING: US stock market futures surge after Pakistan announces that the US and Iran have reached a peace deal: 1. S&P 500: +0.8% 2. Nasdaq 100: +1.3% 3. Dow Jones: +0.6% 4. WTI Crude: -5.0% 5. Brent: -4.0% 6. Gold: +2.0% Pakistan says the peace deal is set to be signed on June 19th.
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CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER Warren Buffett vs Stanley Druckenmiller Buffett stepped down as Charman of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B today. Druckenmiller has never had a losing year in more than 30 years. Here are their full portfolios as of Q2 2026. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - Apple $AAPL: 22% - American Express $AXP: 17% - Google $GOOGL: about 12.6% across both share classes - Coca-Cola $KO: 11% - Bank of America $BAC: 9.2% - Chevron $CVX: 4.7% - Occidental $OXY: 4.3% - Chubb $CB: 3.9% - Moody's $MCO: 3.7% - Kraft Heinz $KHC: 2.6% - DaVita $DVA: 2.1% - Delta $DAL: 1.8% - SiriusXM $SIRI: 1.2% - VeriSign $VRSN: 0.8% - Kroger $KR: 0.7% - Liberty Live $LLYVA: about 0.6% across both share classes - Ally $ALLY: 0.4% - Lennar $LEN: 0.4% - New York Times $NYT: 0.4% - Capital One $COF: 0.2% - Louisiana-Pacific $LPX: 0.1% - Nucor $NUE: 0.1% - Macy's $M: 0.1% - NVR $NVR - Jefferies $JEF - D.R. Horton $DHI DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE - Natera $NTRA: 17% - Insmed $INSM: about 5.7% in shares and calls - Taiwan Semi $TSM: 5.4% - Brazil ETF $EWZ: about 5.1% in shares and calls - Amazon $AMZN: about 4.6% in shares and calls - STMicro $STM: 4.5% - S&P 500 Equal Weight $RSP: about 3.7% in calls and shares - Fox $FOXA: about 2.8% across both share classes - YPF $REPYY: 2.7% - CDW $CDW: about 2.7% in shares and calls - BBB Foods $TBBB: 2.3% - Google $GOOGL: 2.3% - Seagate blockstack:native: 2.3% - United Airlines $UAL: 2.1% - Sea $SE: 2.0% - NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: 2.0% - Russell 2000 ETF $IWM: 1.9% in calls - Sandisk $SNDK: 1.5% - Revolution Medicines $RVMD: 1.4% - S&P 500 ETF: 1.3% in calls - Bitdeer: 1.2% - CRH: 1.1% - Delta: 1.1% - Tesla $TSLA: 1.0% in calls - Fluor: 1.0% - D.R. Horton: 0.9% - Coupang: 0.9% - AMD: 0.8% - Palo Alto Networks: 0.8% - Cleveland-Cliffs: 0.8% - Hut 8: 0.7% - Caris Life Sciences: 0.6% - Argentina ETF: 0.6% - Woodward: 0.5% - Meta: 0.5% in calls - Nuvation Bio: 0.5% - Protagonist Therapeutics: 0.5% - Roku: 0.5% - Cavco: 0.5% - ADMA Biologics: 0.4% - Hyperliquid Strategies: 0.4% - Rambus: 0.4% - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: 0.4% - Champion Homes: 0.4% - Daktronics: 0.4% - PureCycle: 0.4% - Southern Copper: 0.4% - Linde: 0.4% - Entegris: 0.4% - Teva: 0.4% - Unity: 0.4% - Aeva: 0.4% - Riot Platforms: 0.4% - Qnity Electronics: 0.4% - Equinix: 0.4% - Lam Research: 0.4% - Definium Therapeutics: 0.3% - Belite Bio: 0.3% - 10x Genomics: 0.3% - Wabtec: 0.3% - Eli Lilly: 0.3% - Xenon Pharmaceuticals: 0.3% - Olema Pharmaceuticals: 0.2% - Repligen: 0.2% - Rocket Companies: 0.2% - Baidu: 0.2% - Arm: 0.2% - Carvana: 0.2% - Reddit: 0.2% - Alcoa: 0.2% - Thermo Fisher: 0.2% - Danaher: 0.2% - F5: 0.2% - Vista Energy: 0.2% - Skeena Resources: 0.2% - JBS: 0.1% - Monte Rosa Therapeutics: 0.1% - Relay Therapeutics: 0.1% - DBV Technologies: 0.1% - CCC Intelligent Solutions: 0.1% - UWM Holdings: 0.1% - Navitas Semiconductor: 0.1% - Solstice Advanced Materials: 0.1% - FTAI Aviation: 0.1% - Beam Therapeutics: 0.1% - Aurora Innovation: 0.1% - IREN: 0.1% - Grupo Financiero Galicia: 0.1% - Wave Life Sciences: under 0.1% Both own Google, Delta and D.R. Horton. Neither owns Nvidia $NVDA.
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