Premarket movers: Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Alphabet -0.3%, Amazon +0.3%, Apple +0.4%, Meta +0.2%, Microsoft unchanged, Nvidia -0.2%, Tesla -0.3) Watch US and Canadian metals, lumber, dairy, automotive and equipment maker stocks as Canada is set to apply counter-tariffs on $20 billion of US products on Sept. 8 after the US implemented a new 50% tax on imports of hundreds of Canadian items. Alibaba ADRs (BABA) fall 2% after raising $10.2 billion in Hong Kong’s biggest follow-on offering, underscoring its willingness to amass and spend vast sums to take the lead in global artificial intelligence. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) tumbles 12% after the company filed for a possible offering of shares. NVent Electric (NVT) slips 1% the maker of cabinets and racks for data centers agreed to buy Maverick Power for $1.75 billion. PDD Holdings ADRs (PDD) rise 2% after the owner of Temu reported second quarter earnings that beat the average analyst estimate. Regenxbio (RGNX) tumbles 25% after the drug developer said the FDA placed a clinical hold on its investigational gene therapy RGX-121 for Hunter Syndrome. The hold follows the discovery of either a small nodules or a cystic mass in spine MRIs of five trial participants.

Applied Optoelectronics just closed above its 200-day moving average on Friday 🚨 Will $AAOI rally as it did in similar situations in Sep 2025, Nov 2025, and July 2026? For magnified exposure, consider the Tradr 2X Long AAOI Daily ETF $AAOX from @TradrETFs

Applied Optoelectronics just told investors it needs another $600 million and doing it minutes after market close on a Friday is the kind of timing that makes shareholders nervous regardless of the underlying reason. The company filed an Equity Distribution Agreement today allowing it to sell up to $600 million in new shares through an at the market program, with Raymond James and Needham acting as sales agents earning up to a 2% commission on whatever they sell. This is actually the company's second ATM program at this exact size within the same year. AAOI already ran a separate $600 million at the market facility that it launched back in May 2026, and had reportedly raised over $538 million through it by the time it reported second quarter results in early August, meaning this new filing effectively refills the tank right after largely draining the last one. The reason for the raise is real and well documented because AAOI is capacity constrained, not demand constrained. The company just posted its fifth consecutive record revenue quarter, with second quarter 2026 sales up 86% year over year to $191.9 million, driven by explosive orders for 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers used in AI data centers, and management has said outright that "revenue is limited by our production capacity and supply chain, not market demand". To catch up, the company is racing to expand manufacturing capacity from roughly 200,000 units per month today to over 650,000 by the end of 2026 and 930,000 by the end of 2027, largely through new Texas facilities, while also expanding indium phosphide laser fabrication by 350%. That kind of physical buildout, new buildings, new equipment, new wafer lines, is exactly the sort of capital intensive expansion that at the market equity raises are designed to fund, and management has guided full year 2026 revenue above $1.1 billion on the back of it. Even so, the timing here deserves real scrutiny. Dropping a dilutive financing filing at market close on a Friday, when trading volume is thin and there's a full weekend before investors can react in real size, is a pattern companies sometimes use specifically to soften the immediate reaction, and it's fair to view it as a weak governance and disclosure practice.

Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle... $AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028. 400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line. On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2). TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online... For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line. Rather than one-and-done off of one year. This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.

$AAOI file another $600M ATM...after hours on a Friday. Fact - There has been increased interest from hedge fund managers I know to short AAOI this week (historically v. easy money). They now have their short positions laid out right in front of them. The timing of this is extremely sneaky too. Not only AH on a Friday, but also post-Rosenblatt summit where they dropped some bullish commentary. Fatten investors up before chucking them in the oven? It's a very bad look for management overall. I will be re-assessing my personal position over the weekend. There is only so much patience I have, and we all know the AAOI management's "shady" track record in the past.

Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.

📊 #MGBX# 24H Market Highlights! 📅August 5, 2026 🪙 #BTC# Price: $64,152.07 +1.06% 🔥 Trending Tokens 1️⃣ #HEI# $0.12605 2️⃣ #SKYAI# $0.05313 3️⃣ #BTW# $0.133052 4️⃣ #AAOI# $130.58 5️⃣ #BANK# $0.05136 📊Market sentiment index: 38 👉 More Insights: Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Added a bit more $AAOI this week. On trailing numbers, $AAOI looks expensive, but the valuation can change quickly if management executes on the 800G/1.6T ramp. Management is targeting $471M/month of DC transceiver revenue by mid-2027. Annualized, that is about $5.65B. If we add CATV, AAOI could be approaching a roughly $6B ARR. At today's roughly $8.4B enterprise value, AAOI would trade at only about 1.4x ARR. The table below shows what different revenue multiples would imply. I don't think AAOI automatically deserves the premium multiples of $LITE or $CRDO today. Its gross margins are around 30%, way below those businesses. If revenue approaches management's targets while margins expand, even a 2–4x sales multiple would imply a very different valuation.