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Capex component of @RichmondFed Manufacturing Index slid further into contraction in September and hasn’t expanded in over two years
AI capex looks insane. Until you see the backlog.
"AI capex build will continue as is because, for one, all of these things we spoke about are very difficult to implement."
More safety = more compute
Via @semidoped
📌 Capex
US hyperscalers are on track to spend $806 billion this year, with annual capex projected to reach $1.234 trillion by 2027. That kind of spending points to an AI infrastructure supercycle, not just another phase of cloud growth
👉
@GoldmanSachs
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Railroads CAPEX ran 6% of US GDP ... wave after wave of bond defaults. Telecom, just $1T... also everyone went bankrupt... AI data centers? ... does history repeat... that is the question.
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Quarterly capex for the AAMMO hyperscalers has crossed the $181 billion mark, bringing the 4q moving average above $141 billion
Hyperscaler capex will 2x in 2027 to ~$1.6 trillion (up from ~$800 billion this year) per recent reports.
Demand for AI compute is incredible...even though stocks aren't reflecting it currently.
However, given the widening supply-demand inbalance, bottlenecks like power, memory and optics will deepen.
Ultimately meaning that companies like $BE, $MU, and $LITE will report astounding growth next year.
Share prices are bound to follow upwards.
Time will tell!
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Hyperscaler capex is set to hit $1.3 trillion in 2027 as cloud industry backlogs top $2 trillion, according to Nvidia CFO Colette Kress.
To capitalize on the surge, the company is expanding its long-standing partnership with AWS to scale its compute footprint even further.
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AI capex is projected to reach $765B in 2026, passing oil and gas for the first time. Compute is now getting its first futures contract. Here is what has to be true for it to work…
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AI capex boom = GDP growth tailwind?
Math: massive corporate spending on semiconductors/infrastructure is driving imports (Asian chip manufacturing); U.S. export benefits remain muted
Result? GDP’s import/export equation shows drag despite investment boom
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