Small Cap Snipa
@SmallCapSnipa
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Bernstein models a ~2 GW cloud buildout for $IREN by CY28E with revenue ramping up by CY29E
Needham’s $25 price target on $CIFR excludes Colchis entirely (1 GW):
With the same lease economics as Stingray, a future Colchis lease would contribute $15.61 per share with zero terminal value.
“If we include a 14x terminal value, a future Colchis lease would contribute $34.10 per share.”
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We’ve reached a point where $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang has to go on national television and say the world will not end in 2030:
“There is zero percent chance. It is not grounded on facts. It is not grounded on science.”
The FUD industrial complex is working.
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@SmallCapSnipa Yup. I have been accurately describing this ramp and the timelines for several years now. 2028 is the earliest time to begin looking for any slowdown.
Chamath: Within a year, the top three models will be open source. The economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them.
$IREN & $NBIS
He also mentions Baseten, Together, and Fireworks. All three are customers of IREN or Nebius.
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Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source.
Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them:
Nebius
Iren
Baseten
Together
Fireworks
Is anyone bullish AI infrastructure?
JUST IN: OpenAI projects $278 billion in negative free cash flow through 2030
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS NO AI SLOWDOWN:
“The capex cycle through the end of 2027 is likely to remain elevated and in line with our estimates, which are higher than the Wall Street consensus.”
GS expects US hyperscalers to deploy $1.4 trillion in 2027. Constraints including power & land as well as memory.
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NEW YORK TIMES: ANTHROPIC LOOKS TO HAVE 5 GW OF COMPUTE AVAILABLE TO USE BY YEAR END
$IREN $NBIS $WULF $CIFR
Morning Developments: Anthropic & OpenAI hunt for smaller data center deployments of 20-30 MW
Northland Capital starts $IREN with Outperform rating and $99 price target
Morgan Stanley maintains $CIFR Overweight rating and raises price target to $54 from $43.50
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$CRWV down on dilution but the silver lining for Neoclouds is ~$40M/MW on short-dated contracts.
A year ago these deals struggled to get $15M/megawatt.
It’s likely the next short-dated $IREN & $NBIS contracts print closer to $50M per MW as prices continue to increase.
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JUST IN: CoreWeave crashes after announcing $3B in convertible notes and plans to sell up to 35M shares
$CRWV currently trades at $80
Wells Fargo initiates $CIFR with Overweight rating and price target of $25:
The firm said CIFR is the only HPC name that trades at a premium to contracted net asset value, but with significant upside if it can deliver on its pipeline.
Bring it home @rftylerpage
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$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang believes he created a new source of AI demand that will require massive data centers.
He said token generation demand is up 25x in less than a year and new testing systems will push AI data center demand even higher.
$IREN $NBIS $CIFR $WULF
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Jensen Huang: GPU rentals off a 1 GW AI factory are around $50 billion
$NBIS just raised on-demand GPU prices another ~20% across the board
Grid connected power + land + GPUs
JUST IN: Nebius raises on-demand GPU prices ~20%
Needham reiterated $CIFR buy rating and $25 price target on ERCOT Batch Zero conditional classifications:
They believe a 16.5x their 2028 EV/Adj. EBITDA estimate is appropriate given Cipher’s long-term contracted cash flows, vertically integrated development capabilities and embedded optionality across its site portfolio.
The firm believes 1GW of conditionally approved Base Load capacity still represents a significant pipeline of capacity, despite the headline "miss" on expectations.
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Jensen Huang says the ROIC is about one year for a 1 GW AI factory:
“Each gigawatt of NVIDIA AI factories is about $50-$60 billion. However, the rentals of that one gigawatt AI factory is about $50 billion per year. They get to use that for many years, well beyond five and six.”
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Connecting the dots again.
The AI race isn't won on chips.
It's won on power.
$BE's 800V DC fuel cell just rewrote the math: $3.6B off a 1 GW build, transformers obsolete. The bottleneck was never compute.
Who's still betting against the power play?
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$BE says it’s 800V DC fuel cell can cut BILLIONS from data center costs and eliminate the need for transformers
It’s 800V DC can reduce non-compute capital expenditures for a 1 GW AI data center by $3.6 billion, or 27%, and five-year total cost of ownership by $5.5 billion, or 9%.
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$CRWV BRINGS UP MULTI-RACK NVIDIA VERA RUBIN NVL72 CLUSTER
The announcement puts hundreds of NVIDIA Rubin GPUs into a single scale-out cluster for agentic AI. Multi-rack Vera Rubin NVL72 clusters allow for training and inference jobs to run across hundreds of Rubin GPUs.
The Rubin era is here.
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$CRWV SIGNS 15-YEAR ANCHOR LEASE AT BLOCKFUSION NIAGRA FALLS CAMPUS
• Lease and expansion agreements replace a prior non-binding LOI including two 5 year renewal options
• Niagara Falls campus repurposes a decommissioned power plant into a predominantly low-carbon, liquid-cooled AI data center
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$CIFR ERCOT BATCH ZERO DESIGNATIONS:
Base Load: 1.1 GW
• Stingray: 100 MW
· Colchis: 1 GW
Studied Load: 2.1 GW
· Mikeska: 500 MW
· Apollo: 900 MW
· Stingray Phase II: 200 MW
· McLennan: 500 MW
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After the conclusion of follow-up discussions with our transmission service providers, Cipher has received the following designations:
Conditional Base Load
· Stingray (100 MW)
· Colchis (1 GW)
Conditional Studied Load
· Mikeska (500 MW, PCLR qualified)
· Apollo (900 MW, PCLR qualified)
· Stingray Phase II (200 MW, PCLR qualified)
· McLennan (500 MW)
As a reminder, Barber Lake (300 MW), Black Pearl (300 MW), and Odessa (207 MW) are already energized, and Reveille (70 MW) and Ulysses (200 MW) are fully interconnection-approved.
We look forward to complying with the comprehensive audit and will share final designations when available in December.
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