$AAOI earnings:
- $1B-$1.5B LTA disclosed with a hyperscaler customer
- 2nd LTA coming soon, worth 5x+ more (implying $5B-$7.5B), in its final stages.
This LTA explicitly includes lasers, very material for AOI that they're moving to supplying merchant lasers.
- "The demand is exceptional, unprecedented. I do not know what kind of superlatives to use to describe the amount of demand that we are seeing out there in the industry"
Yeah this commentary doesn't sound like any optical demand would slowed down if it's "exceptional + unprecedented"
- Rejected hyperscaler slowdowns from political changes with little effect.
- AOI Can only meet 80% of demand, in case there's a kind of reduction, the demand would be bigger than AOI future capacity
- Moving toward other financing methods than ATMs (thank god), US bank loans similar to what $NBIS is doing, I'd argue is positive, given FCF coming in later.
- Delay in meeting capacity projections into H1 2027. $471m/month targets pushed back into H2 2027, due to electrical procurement and construction logistics, which existed before Texas governor changed.
This part is negative part of the earnings call. To qualify this, I don't quite think hyperscalers would sign a $5-$7.5B LTA if they didn't think AOI couldn't deliver.
- Near term Q4 guidance cut was DSP availability. AOI revised near term projections down slightly to $385M and $420M in revenue.
Said DSP supply would ease early 2027 and that they're qualifying more suppliers.
- Gave hiked H2 2027 capacity projections from their expansion, near term revision downward.
- 4 to 5 ongoing UHP laser eval/quals for CPO
UHP laser segment alone would far outweigh their $3.8B MC, especially if you're executing on multi billion dollar contracts with 60%+ gross margin laseres.
TLDR:
- Long term visibility improved a lot, with est. $6-$9B cumulative LTA contracts coming soon.
- Shift toward supplying CPO lasers merchant is fundamentally material vs. just transceivers, and what I wanted to hear
- Capacity guidance hiked into H2 2027, near term delays from electrical/DSP related procurement + installation.
I still think we're reached peak fear levels, but wouldn't dismiss disappointing short term procurement delays + Q4 DSP bottlenecks.
AOI likely signing an additional +$5-$7.5B in likely hyperscaler LTAs and entering merchant UHP CPO market dominanted by $LITE + $COHR.
Factored in with the valuation drop has made medium-long term opportunities very compelling.
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Broadcom earnings call. Best hand-picked excerpts:
“This was our Q3 AI semiconductor revenue, which grew 221% year on year and up 54% sequentially.”
“Demand was simply hot and we're just getting started. Our six XPU customers are accelerating their adoption of custom accelerators and AI semiconductor revenue."
TPU v8i “is comparable, if not surpasses the Vera Rubin GPU.”
“Broadcom is now shipping the TPU version eight ahead of the Mediatek version”
“In Q3, we also shipped Jalapeno OpenAI first generation custom accelerator, which outperforms Grace Blackwell's GPU for inference workloads.”
On Google TPUs: “We are planning to deliver multi tens of billions of dollars of TPUs annually over the next several years. We expect this growing demand in 28 and 29 to be fulfilled through successive generations of the increasingly complex TPUs.”
“We expect Anthropic to deploy another five gigawatts of TPU version eight in 2027. And in 2028, we have clear line of sight to deliver another and incremental ten gigawatts even as we expect Google to grow for us.”
“Anthropic is on track to become our largest XPU customer in 2027.”
“OpenAI .. on track for the planned deployment of 1.3GW in 2027 .. we have a line of sight for OpenAI to deploy over five gigawatts of Jalapeno and its successors [in 2028] .. would make OpenAI our second largest .. customer”
"Here is our outlook for our AI semiconductor revenue. In 2027, we have secured the supply to again double AI revenue to approximately $115 billion. Our demand actually exceeds this outlook and we will work to improve supply. In 2028, we expect the trajectory of growth to continue. We have line of sight for fiscal 2028 a semiconductor revenue growth to again double to $230 billion. Here again, we have secured the supply to meet this outlook.”
“As a result, I got to say, we are very much on target to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal 2028.”
OpenAI and Anthropic: “They are using cloud services third party services to deploy their models. Long term, we see these guys to be no different from a hyperscaler and will run their own data centers and be first party to offer generative AI APIs .. models to the world. So we see that happening. It's not speculation. It's actually happening. And we are in the midst of enabling that”
Net-net: Looks like Jensen secured the HBM for 2027! Broadcom's 2027 AI revenue guidance is disappointing relative to buyside bogeys, but the 2028 outlook is strong. That said, you have to discount a two year out guide.
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Dell earnings call. Best hand picked excerpts:
"Revenue was $47 billion, up 58%, and earnings per share was $7.04, up 203%.”
“Over the past 12 months, we have booked more than $130 billion in AI server orders.”
“Our AI server momentum continues to accelerate. We booked $60.9 billion of AI orders in this quarter, the most in our history. We are also seeing AI-related tailwinds in traditional servers and networking, along with early signs of increased storage demand as customers prepare, manage, and protect growing volumes of data.”
“Demand is broadening across Neoclouds, sovereigns, and enterprise customers, and our customer count has surpassed 6,500.”
“We are seeing a growing trend of customers that require meaningful CPU compute capacity to support AI and agentic workflows.”
“If I look at the longer-term trends, I know you're a believer of this, but as we see it, agentic demand is reshaping the data center and the underlying infrastructure. Inference is past training and is pure demand on our industry. We think the tokens that inference drives is going to grow 87x to 3,600 quadrillion tokens by 2030. Training demand grows 5x to 850 zettaflops by 2030. Enterprise agentic is expected to be the single largest workload by 2028."
"We're expecting AI to be 75% of all data center demand by 2030, adding 200 GW of power over that same timeframe, and half of that, we believe, is right in our sweet spot with our customers, the Neocloud sovereigns and enterprises. If you look at that math, we think the opportunity in front of us is more than a trillion dollars over that time frame.”
“If we think about this across agentic workloads as we head towards physical AI and what's going to happen in manufacturing and IoT sensors and robotics, which drive tremendous amounts of multimodal unstructured data, Arthur likes to call it unstructured repositories. There's a lot of structured data in databases. The growth of that is immense, and we actually see it accelerating, not slowing down.”
“The constraints remain the same. DRAM, DRAM, DRAM followed by NAND, NAND, NAND. We have spotty CPU shortages. There are shortages with disk drives. If you go further down in the supply chain, just about every product going through a leading node is constrained. Mature nodes that are building MOSFETs, power ICs, microcontrollers, drivers are constrained. There's shortages of ABF substrate, T-glass, all of which we monitor. There's shortages in optical. The AI supply chain is working red line all out to build CDUs, power racks. Welcome to the life of a supply chain person at Dell. This is what we do, chasing parts. We love it.”
“But the underlying demand for the technology is significant. I think about the new use cases, that's all new use cases, all new growth, which is being driven by agentic AI, essentially running the harness, if that makes sense. We continue to be optimistic about the prospects. Again, demand outran supply last quarter. Demand outran supply this quarter. The pipeline remains robust.”
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