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tae kim
@firstadopter
"Key Context" Substack covering AI and chips. Reached #1# new bestseller first 24 hrs Subscribe "Be so good they can't ignore you"
10.2K Following    106.6K Followers
Congress needs to act NOW. Think about how ridiculous this is. He's waiting until after an election to put more American lives at risk. Not to mention the surging interest rates and energy prices, which are crushing daily living affordability. "has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, U.S. officials said."
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This is insane. Why even take the meetings this week and do the leaks to the media? WSJ: "President Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, U.S. officials said."
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This is insane. Why even take the meetings this week and do the leaks to the media? WSJ: "President Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, U.S. officials said."
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Charlie Munger does not miss
Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer was asked by Charlie Munger, in front of a whole golf club, why he held his Microsoft stock when his partners sold. Then Munger added: "I know you're not that smart." Ballmer's comeback: "No, but I'm that loyal."
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A line in Reuters' latest revised Iran war story: “US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.” CBS News just now: “Moments ago a US official told CBS that the Trump administration is having "positive and constructive discussions through the mediators."
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Moments ago a US official told CBS that the Trump administration is having "positive and constructive discussions through the mediators." Iran has proposed a 7 day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but this US official said the following: "The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz, so we are not in a rush. Over the last 48 hours, nearly 40 million barrels of oil have transited the Strait. " h/t @saraecook
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Some of the headline framing that moves markets is ridiculous. This has been Iran's position the entire time. A phased deal first (lifting the blockade in exchange for reopening the Strait), followed by nuclear talks.
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SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO REUTERS: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL REMAIN CLOSED, NO NUCLEAR TALKS WITH UNITED STATES UNTIL IRAN'S CONDITIONS MET
pod bros!
That sound you hear is the pod bros high-fiving each other over finding their next big pair trade.
Satya says the AI agent era is the biggest total addressable market expansion EVER for Microsoft
SHOTS FIRED. Microsoft will go after Meta's Muse! From @alexeheath 's interview of @satyanadella : "He wants to bring Autopilot’s AI chief of staff to your personal life, too. Built on a hardened version of OpenClaw, the agent gets its own computer, workspace, and memory to work continuously. When I ask about Microsoft’s consumer strategy, he points to its 100 million-plus consumer subscribers: “Autopilot should also go to the consumer side.” He sees consumer agents potentially cutting out today’s middlemen, making that market more zero-sum. In the enterprise, he thinks agents will make the market bigger than cloud “by orders of magnitude.”
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SHOTS FIRED. Microsoft will go after Meta's Muse! From @alexeheath 's interview of @satyanadella : "He wants to bring Autopilot’s AI chief of staff to your personal life, too. Built on a hardened version of OpenClaw, the agent gets its own computer, workspace, and memory to work continuously. When I ask about Microsoft’s consumer strategy, he points to its 100 million-plus consumer subscribers: “Autopilot should also go to the consumer side.” He sees consumer agents potentially cutting out today’s middlemen, making that market more zero-sum. In the enterprise, he thinks agents will make the market bigger than cloud “by orders of magnitude.”
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I think investors are realizing there's going to be a LOT of competition in both the "OpenClaw for normies" and "OpenClaw for enterprise" spaces after Microsoft's OpenClaw announcement this morning. It's game on time. Meta shares are down 3.8%, while Microsoft stock is up 3.4% right now.
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Holy crap. OpenClaw personal AI agent for the Enterprise. Is this a Muse moment for Microsoft?
Microsoft is building on top of @openclaw Really cool. "We are building Autopilot on @openclaw"
Today we announced the preview of Microsoft Autopilot is rolling out to our first customers - "Autopilot is a persistent, proactive and personal agent that keeps working even when you’re not" It's been a while since I updated you all on what we are building. First Scout is now Autopilot, and my team leads building this personal agent. We are building Autopilot on @openclaw, working with @steipete and the OpenClaw Foundation to make it a fantastic enterprise grade runtime. Re-introducing Sebastian, my Autopilot - and he is as excited as I am!
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Holy crap. OpenClaw personal AI agent for the Enterprise. Is this a Muse moment for Microsoft?
We’re building Copilot as a new OS for work that spans every model, every form factor, and every task. Today, we’re announcing our biggest update to Copilot to date, bringing four things together: · Autopilot: proactive and long-running agent built for the enterprise · Code: build apps with Copilot, hosted inside your company’s tenant · Home: Chat + Cowork together · Office: now fully embedded in Copilot (and Copilot embedded in Office, of course!) Plus, you can invoke Copilot in Teams, and we’re introducing Today, a proactive experience that surfaces the most important information from across M365 without needing to ask for it. The way we work is changing and so are our workflows. This update brings AI into that flow, from answering a question, to building an app, to getting work done on your behalf.
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Spot on. "When we got attacked, our team initially turned to frontier closed-source APIs that blocked us because of safeguards that still can’t always tell the difference between attackers and defenders. I acknowledge that these safeguards are created with good intentions, but they can put defenders at a disadvantage while attackers jailbreak them, increasing the asymmetry of capabilities. In our case, as we started hitting those guardrails, fortunately we could use the @nvidia version of an open-source model" "Cyberattacks may increasingly come from proprietary models behind closed doors, while much of the defense may end up being powered by open-source tools because they are less restricted, more privacy-preserving, and orders of magnitude more affordable for organizations across the globe. The world needs open-source AI more than ever to defend itself." "during this cyberattack, we learned how AI can stoke fear among the public and policymakers, especially through anthropomorphic framing and sci-fi imagery." "We strongly believe that fear-based narratives are not the way to make the right decisions about the future of such a foundational and empowering technology or bring the public along with us." "Even though we were the victims of this cyberattack, we believe more strongly than ever that AI will be beneficial to cybersecurity and make the world safer, just as major technologies before it. We were attacked by AI, but more importantly, we defended ourselves with AI."
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Ultra high power laser demand at Nvidia is ramping for December quarter. Spectrum-6 co-packaged optics biz above plan, according to Lumentum management Stifel: "Management said NVDA demand on LITE for high-power lasers has gone up meaningfully into year-end and for CY2027. Within that framework, LITE (at this point) will not be able to meet the incremental demand for the December quarter despite ramping as fast as it can." "management indicated NVDA December-quarter UHP demand has increased materially as Spectrum-6 CPO attach is tracking above prior plan"
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It's wild that the S&P 500 is less than 2% off its high when transports and consumer stocks look like this
Frontier models have been used in major cyberattacks, while open-source models have been used for cyber defense. Maybe she should look at Reid Hoffman's financial incentives before amplifying this garbage argument. If she was a bit more competent, we wouldn't have Trump as President.
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We're used to thinking of open-source models as an unadulterated good. But in the case of AI, they can actually pose additional dangers, as @ReidHoffman and I got into at #CGI2026#. I appreciated this nuanced discussion.
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OpenAI is taking share from Anthropic "• Anthropic still #1# in spend, but went 69% → 40% • OpenAI: 10% → 24% in spend • GPT-6 Astra + GPT 5.6 Sol are ripping • OpenAI now leads in tokens #"
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Spend of OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open (Vercel AI Gateway, last 2 months) • Anthropic still #1# in spend, but went 69% → 40% • OpenAI: 10% → 24% in spend • GPT-6 Astra + GPT 5.6 Sol are ripping • OpenAI now leads in tokens # • Kimi K3 + DeepSeek took ~half of Anthropic's loss • Opus 5.5 is up to 10% of spend in 2 days • OpenAI is 62% of image generations Watch here:
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The Meta Muse computer is real! Told ya. "I’ve seen a couple of posts about this so wanted to demystify. Today, every Muse user gets a free computer in the cloud. It's a real computer" "Just as you can when you install Linux on your home computer, you can poke around and see all the files that make the system work - both debian system files and the binaries and data files that implement the parts of Muse" "your Muse Secure VM truly is your own computer in the cloud. You can install software in it, write and compile code, use the browser to surf the web: it is your own Linux box that you can operate as you choose with your Muse." "We’re really proud to be able to put a real computer in millions of people’s hands with a similar level of transparency." "when you ask your Muse to show you its entire filesystem, and receive gigabytes of files you’re seeing the full contents of the runtime cell."
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I’ve seen a couple of posts about this so wanted to demystify. Today, every Muse user gets a free computer in the cloud. It's a real computer, and we’ve designed the security architecture of the Muse Secure VM carefully so you and your Muse can do almost anything you could with a computer sitting under your desk while keeping you and the system safe from threats like prompt injection. We wrote about this at length in our security blog post – Activity in the “runtime cell”, which you share with your Muse is unfettered, but sensitive actions are all overseen by the Sentinel, which runs outside of that cell. Similarly, all sensitive secrets - like the passwords you enter into Muse’s secure credential storage - are also stored outside the runtime cell. The runtime cell gets its own root filesystem (including a full Ubuntu linux image) separate from the host filesystem where your other more sensitive data lives. Because it is isolated from the sensitive stuff that runs on the same box, this means that we can, and do, offer users full visibility and control over the files in the runtime cell. Just as you can when you install Linux on your home computer, you can poke around and see all the files that make the system work - both debian system files and the binaries and data files that implement the parts of Muse which run in the runtime cell. This was a very deliberate choice - your Muse Secure VM truly is your own computer in the cloud. You can install software in it, write and compile code, use the browser to surf the web: it is your own Linux box that you can operate as you choose with your Muse. Poking around in this computer doesn't give you any privileged access to Meta infrastructure, or to other people's data If I may geek out a little here for a second… As a kid I loved to take things apart to see how they worked. As a teenager I got into computers and soon found myself drawn to C:\WINDOWS\SYSTEM and the system registry, later Slackware’s /dev/, /proc/ etc – I could see how the system was laid out and as I explored what DLL files and .so files actually did, I gradually became able to meld the computer to my own will. We’re really proud to be able to put a real computer in millions of people’s hands with a similar level of transparency. We built a file explorer right into the Library tab of the UI. We want you to be able to see the markdown files Muse writes while it thinks about how to serve you better, and explore the internals of the system if you’d like to. So, when you ask your Muse to show you its entire filesystem, and receive gigabytes of files you’re seeing the full contents of the runtime cell. It’s yours to explore and enjoy! If you’re not a geek like me, or simply want to download the data that you personally have created directly with your Muse, we added a feature for that too in Settings > Data controls > Download your agent data.
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