tae kim
@firstadopter
"Key Context" Substack covering AI and chips. Reached #1# new bestseller first 24 hrs
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"Be so good they can't ignore you"
10.2K Following 103.3K Followers
"Pathfounders has learned from industry sources that Hassabis wanted to leave at the same time as Dean, but Google management felt the news would cause a collapse in its share price. Indeed, Google’s stock fell 5 per cent following the announcement above.
Instead, Hassabis was persuaded to bump up (or down) to the Chair role, allowing the organisation to settle for a while until he can exit in a dignified manner."
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Google's fumbling of AI is entirely due to Sundar's inept management and inability to retain top AI talent.
"We shouldn't have really gotten to exist. Google should of just run away with it." - Sam Altman
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OH SNAP! 😂
Michael Burry: “This is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel. They all look similar, and probably any single one would do.”
“The fish have gotten very fat, very large, easy to shoot.
Also, so large that it shan’t be long before every last one keels over for lack of oxygen.”
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Elon Musk just annihilated the memory bears.
Elon Musk on SpaceX earnings call: “Limiting factor currently is memory. Memory output is increasing by around 20% per year. Now normally that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large mature industry. But ask yourself is the demand increasing by 20% a year? No, the demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher. So if you've got demand increasing much faster than supply then Economics 101 would suggest that the price increases. It does not decrease.”
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Sanja Fidler, vice president of AI research at NVIDIA, announces she is leaving the company. Big loss.
"World models is where the next breakthrough lies, and it is around the corner."
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FT: "Amazon has completed a $50bn investment in OpenAI, building a roughly 5 per cent stake in the ChatGPT maker ahead of a public listing expected next year."
"The $852bn start-up received the final tranche this week, taking Amazon’s position to roughly 5 per cent"
"Amazon has committed as much as $33bn in the Claude maker, of which $18bn has been invested to date, it disclosed on Friday."
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The funniest thing is @michaeljburry himself is LONG AI WINNER Microsoft! 🤣
AI bears, ignore Microsoft’s and Amazon’s best earnings reports in FOUR YEARS at your peril.
AI compute demand and revenue growth are ACCELERATING. Hold on to your hats.
There’s something happening here. What it is, is exactly clear.
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AI bears, ignore Microsoft’s and Amazon’s best earnings reports in FOUR YEARS at your peril.
AI compute demand and revenue growth are ACCELERATING. Hold on to your hats.
There’s something happening here. What it is, is exactly clear.
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"Microsoft Posts Biggest One-Day Market-Cap Gain for Any U.S. Company" 🚀
OpenAI’s AI optimism ads and marketing campaigns are elite tier now. I URGE Anthropic to do something similar.
We can’t let the disingenuous, intellectually dishonest politicians and bad faith actors win. Our country's future depends on it.
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one of the most beautiful things about OpenAI is that every employee really has a voice.
i wanted to capture what it feels like to work here, what our mission means to me, and why you should join us. so i made this video with Codex, shared it with the team, and they felt it was worth producing and sharing with the world.
this is our mission. and it’s why i’m here.
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Sounds like Apple is expecting further memory chip price hikes in the coming quarters:
Apple earnings call: "Let me back up and talk about memory in general, because I know this is a subject on many of your minds. If you look at, as I'd said on the last call, we paid more for memory in the March quarter than the December quarter. As I alluded to last quarter, we expected to pay significantly more in the June quarter than the March quarter, and that is what happened. It was partially offset by the benefit of carry-in inventory."
"For September, we expect to pay even higher memory costs, and we're able to offset partly by a few factors, and let me walk through kind of what they are. The first is, as you would expect, we have a benefit from some carry-in inventory in the September quarter. However, we believe we'll see decreasing benefit from this over time beyond the September quarter."
"On the pricing front, we reluctantly raised prices, I would say. We did it because we're in what I would characterize as a 100-year flood on the memory pricing, with exponential increases in memory prices."
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CNBC: "Amazon’s AWS posts fastest growth since 2021, citing AI and chip demand"
Wow. Amazon AWS. Huge beat. AWS revenue $42.2B vs. $40.5B est.
AWS going to $1 trillion in revenue? Memory demand/shortage to last for years to 2028.
This is incredibly bullish for AI chips trade across the board.
Amazon earnings call: “We've done this before in the first era of cloud computing. Just over a longer time horizon, where demand built more gradually than it has in AI. But we see the margins and returns in AI tracking what we saw with core at the same point of evolution. Actually, a little ahead. We now believe we will spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026. The higher cost of memory pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about 200 billion. But even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. And I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 to. In fact, the demand we already have for 2028 is striking. And remember, enterprises are still very early in using inference at scale in their current production applications. We've long believed AWS could become a few hundred billion dollars revenue business and now believe it will be at least double that and very possibly be $1 trillion annual revenue business for us in time with very appealing accompanying free cash flow and return on invested capital.”
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Amazon says we're in early stages of AI demand: "We have so much demand right now .. what we've talked about in 26 .. the lion's share of capacity in 27 and we're adding a lot of capacity .. is largely reserved. And we have quite a bit of capacity. It's already been reserved for 28."
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Wow. Amazon AWS. Huge beat. AWS revenue $42.2B vs. $40.5B est.
AWS going to $1 trillion in revenue? Memory demand/shortage to last for years to 2028.
This is incredibly bullish for AI chips trade across the board.
Amazon earnings call: “We've done this before in the first era of cloud computing. Just over a longer time horizon, where demand built more gradually than it has in AI. But we see the margins and returns in AI tracking what we saw with core at the same point of evolution. Actually, a little ahead. We now believe we will spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026. The higher cost of memory pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about 200 billion. But even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. And I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 to. In fact, the demand we already have for 2028 is striking. And remember, enterprises are still very early in using inference at scale in their current production applications. We've long believed AWS could become a few hundred billion dollars revenue business and now believe it will be at least double that and very possibly be $1 trillion annual revenue business for us in time with very appealing accompanying free cash flow and return on invested capital.”
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Insane day and week for my @x account's reach. Millions of impressions is incredible. Thank you all for reading.
Just hit 100,000 followers on this platform after 18 years. I'm grateful for all of you. Thank you for reading. Here's to many more years ahead. I appreciate this community so much.
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Wow. Amazon AWS. Huge beat. AWS revenue $42.2B vs. $40.5B est.
AWS going to $1 trillion in revenue? Memory demand/shortage to last for years to 2028.
This is incredibly bullish for AI chips trade across the board.
Amazon earnings call: “We've done this before in the first era of cloud computing. Just over a longer time horizon, where demand built more gradually than it has in AI. But we see the margins and returns in AI tracking what we saw with core at the same point of evolution. Actually, a little ahead. We now believe we will spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026. The higher cost of memory pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about 200 billion. But even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. And I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 to. In fact, the demand we already have for 2028 is striking. And remember, enterprises are still very early in using inference at scale in their current production applications. We've long believed AWS could become a few hundred billion dollars revenue business and now believe it will be at least double that and very possibly be $1 trillion annual revenue business for us in time with very appealing accompanying free cash flow and return on invested capital.”
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The Big Lesson from the Implosion of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s $20 Billion Situational Awareness Hedge Fund
On a day when many AI-related stocks are up 15% to 25%, the two bearish calls I made on my Substack, Qualcomm and Alphabet, are trading down. Fundamental analysis works.
Trading Places is the best movie of all time. Hard stop.
Podshop lackey: Boss, we're up BILLIONS on the trade in 5 hours. What do we do?
Boss: Not yet ... almost ... NOW
(I'm imagining the Dan Aykroyd scene from Trading Places right now)
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Podshop lackey: Boss, we're up BILLIONS on the trade in 5 hours. What do we do?
Boss: Not yet ... almost ... NOW
(I'm imagining the Dan Aykroyd scene from Trading Places right now)
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Narrator: It was a good sign
