Narrator: Anthropic BLEW OUT expectations for October ARR WSJ: "Anthropic’s run rate—a metric used to estimate annual revenue—topped $80 billion at the end of October, up from the prior month, according to a person familiar with the matter."

Re: Texas governor election. Let's take a deep breath. If companies ask for no subsidies, promise a ton of union jobs, and guarantee that water and electricity costs won't rise/plus add supply, data centers can be built under her governorship. This is directly from Gina's website:

New York Times on Anthropic GW at year end: "This year, it is expected to have more than 3.5 gigawatts of computing power, two people with knowledge of its plans said" The crazy thing 3.5 GWs is nearly exactly what OpenAI estimated Anthropic would have back in April!

"On Sept. 22, Anthropic released a much better model Opus 5.5, which I expect is sparking a rebound in Anthropic's business. And when Anthropic releases Fable 5.5 soon, ARR should re-accelerate into IPO"

Exactly what I've been writing and saying. OpenAI had been gaining share since July and then Anthropic's September 22 release of Opus 5.5 won some of it back. Competition is a good thing. Analysts need to assess product release quality and momentum from a bottoms up basis rather than blindly extrapolating with their 20-tab Excel models. Product, product, product.

Oct. 28: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on AI sector financial conditions tightening. Iran War -> Energy prices -> inflation -> the discounting of forward rate policy matters. "CHAIRMAN WARSH: Thank you, Claire. So, there was a narrative for quite a while, maybe even in this room over the course of the last several press conferences, well, they're going to raise rates, they're talking about raising rates, but it's not going to have any effect on AI, because the returns that investors are expecting are so different. I was skeptical of that view. Interest rates get in the cracks, interest rates affect directly or indirectly, almost everything. And what have we seen? Since early September what we've seen inside of the technology complex, outside of the technology complex, whether you pronounce it AI or SI, Claire, is up to you, what have you seen? Interest rates have had an effect. You've seen market participants that are discriminating between the kinds of investments they want to make. You've seen credit spreads for certain assets widen out, gap out. For others you've seen some tightening in financial conditions, but not significantly. So on the thrust of your question of -- with respect to the new technology and this investment surge, do interest rates matter? I believe they do. And I don't believe that they're somehow divorced from the rest of the economy."

Fine, I'll play the Bill Ackman role here. The White House needs to realize financial conditions are tightening as markets deteriorate. Soros reflexivity at work. Credit and equity funding may dry up even though the underlying fundamentals and payback periods are solid. We're at the end of the runway on $110+ oil, inflation and rates. We need credible Iran war resolution now to lower energy prices/inflation/rates or risk the most senseless self-inflicted recession in history.

In what universe is SpaceX investment grade but Anthropic isn't after the S-1 revealed its inference economics, limited cash burn alongside exponential growth, leadership in the most important market of this generation and net cash position? Are the rating agencies insane?

Amazon is noticeably off its panic selling lows. The absolute numbers were fantastic. The AWS outlook of 40% growth over the next two years is extremely strong. Sometimes the beat/miss bogey game is lame and makes people miss the forest for the trees.

BofA slashes Apple iPhone sales estimate and says Wall Street models for gross margin are WAY too high due to higher memory prices "We lower our F27 iPhone est. by 9mn units to 247mn (vs. St at 260mn)." "We see a gross 900bps impact from memory on iPhone GMs which is netted down to a negative impact of 500bps based on price, mix, and cost actions. We estimate about 250bps negative impact on total company GM. Sep quarter GM guide is 47-48% which includes 100bps of positive impact from tariff refunds. Assuming a Sep base GM of 46.5% (ex tariff impact), by the Mar qtr, we would estimate total company GM to be 43.6-44.6%, much lower than current St. ests (47.7%)."

Phone sales are as bad as PC sales. Qualcomm is suffering the most "Global smartphone SoC shipments declined 21% YoY in Q3 2026, driven by rising memory costs, longer replacement cycles and cautious inventory management by smartphone OEMs." "Qualcomm also faced headwinds from Samsung’s decision to use a mix of Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 and its own Exynos 2600 chipsets in the Galaxy S26 series, alongside softer sales among Chinese smartphone OEMs."

"On Sept. 22, Anthropic released a much better model Opus 5.5, which I expect is sparking a rebound in Anthropic's business. And when Anthropic releases Fable 5.5 soon, ARR should re-accelerate into IPO"