Forward Guidance
@ForwardGuidance
Macro Investing Podcast
Hosted by @fejau_inc
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Staples rose 14% in October. @WarrenPies says a market led by energy and staples is an unhealthy one
Diesel has been above $200 a barrel for months. @fejau_inc asks @WarrenPies what brings crack spreads down
"We really just took risk off." @WarrenPies on the midterms
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Europe is hiking into an energy shock.
Calling compute a commodity sounds bullish until you remember commodities don't set their own price.
Oil's peace premium is gone, Europe is hiking into an energy shock, gold broke $3,900, and the AI trade is unwinding. The week in under 4 minutes.
The most meaningless Fed meeting in a long time.
Leverage built the AI trade. Now the capex misses are taking it apart.
Bonds rallied this week. Gold still broke below $3,900, its lowest in about a year.
The Brent–WTI spread was $2–4 before the war. Now the US gets a $13–14 per barrel discount. @qthomp on why markets may be front-running a crude export ban.
Crypto's bottom won't be a V. @qthomp on why, with no liquidity, a real bottom can take many, many months.
.@qthomp: "The only way out is through." Either much higher prices via escalation, or prices high enough to destroy demand.
Macro meets crypto at DAS London, Nov 10–11. George Osborne, BlackRock, JPMorgan and the UK Shadow Financial Secretary on policy and TradFi's move into digital assets. @blockworksDAS, prices rise Nov 4.
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Front-month Brent: $112–113. March 2027: $101. @qthomp on the $12–13 roll yield he earns by being long oil futures.
Weekends aren't "a short period of time." They're two or three days when news hits and most retail can't hedge.
@JohannKerbrat on what 24/7 trading changes
We expected a federal framework so one product could launch in all 50 states. It didn't happen. @JohannKerbrat on the CFTC, the SEC and the US path for perps
"You're not betting against the house like a CFD." Perps run on a clear order book, not a spread built in for the broker.
@JohannKerbrat on why $HOOD is going all in on perps
Robinhood says more than 70% of its stock-token volume happens outside exchange hours, mostly nights and weekends.
@JohannKerbrat on why markets are going 24/7
More German companies are going bankrupt as Europe faces a choice to keep prioritizing inflation and the bond market, or spend more to rebuild its industrial base.
The first risks more bankruptcies, job losses, and political backlash. The second risks higher inflation and borrowing costs. @AidanGarrib
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