Forward Guidance
@ForwardGuidance
Macro Investing Podcast
Hosted by @fejau_inc
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105 Following 28K Followers
Markets always test big players with a target on their back.
@fejau_inc says it's not a coincidence SK Hynix missed just as leverage peaked.
Short sellers smelled blood and reflexivity took Situational Awareness out on a stretcher.
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Warsh got everything he wanted without hiking.
Equities weakened, credit spreads widened and real rates moved to levels that should slow housing and consumption.
@qthomp argues Warsh may be using the long end and balance sheet to tighten financial conditions before resorting to a hike.
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The bet Warsh is making before midterms:
Hawkish communication can tighten conditions before the political calendar makes another hike increasingly difficult.
“By the time we get to September, we may not need those hikes because the long end has already taken care of it.” – @fejau_inc
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AI could hit an air pocket before mass adoption arrives.
@stevehou says current CapEx cycle may lose momentum while large enterprises are still struggling to integrate AI into their workflows.
“The fastest adoption and most ROI show up in the smallest enterprises, but those are going to be small by dollar amount.”
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AI will not be a winner-take-all model market.
@stevehou argues enterprises will use cheaper open models for low-value tasks and reserve frontier intelligence for their most important work.
“The orchestration layer is going to accrue a lot of the value.”
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Michael Burry was wrong about chip depreciation.
@stevehou says growing inference workloads are turning older chips into durable workhorses.
Inference demand is so robust, even the A100 chip rental rate is going up.
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The US-China AI race may strengthen the hardware cycle.
@stevehou says both countries are investing more aggressively as China approaches the frontier models, potentially doubling overall compute demand.
“Chinese memory probably gets eaten up by Chinese demand by itself.”
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“The Kimi moment felt very similar to the DeepSeek moment.”
@stevehou says AI models will keep becoming more memory-efficient, putting pressure on pricing even as total usage continues growing.
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LLMs are great consensus detectors.
@donnelly_brent explains why AI-generated analysis often reflects the institutional average, not a differentiated view.
But consensus framing tells you what is already priced and what everyone else is probably looking at.
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Retail attention is a a great timing signal.
@donnelly_brent explains why a theme first appearing on WallStreetBets can be bullish, while weeks of dominance can mean the consensus is already in the price.
Early attention can fuel momentum, while sustained crowding can mark the point where the trade is already fully owned.
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Bitcoin’s biggest problem is narrative exhaustion.
“What are you actually cheering for? What are you hedging?”
@donnelly_brent says BTC’s prior strength came from repeatedly attaching itself to new macro and market stories, but the next bull run may require a new story that isn't obvious yet.
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ICYMI NEW POD
We Cover:
🔸 The trader’s mindset
🔸 Using LLMs to trade
🔸 Is Warsh actually hawkish?
🔸 Dollar-yen intervention
🔸 Bitcoin’s lost narrative & more!
@donnelly_brent @fejau_inc
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:00 Trading Outside The Box
06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk
12:46 AI As A Trading Tool
19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets
25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed
33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook
41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable?
43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative?
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“Coordinated intervention has worked almost every time.”
@donnelly_brent says dollar-yen only gets a durable top if Japan gets real policy coordination, not another unilateral smash.
Otherwise, the trade stays tactical: short into intervention, cover quickly, and wait for the real catalysts.
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“The key to making money in markets is thinking what everyone else thinks, but just a bit before them.”
@donnelly_brent says short-term edge has shifted from predicting policy to predicting people.
Trading is less about knowing the perfect macro answer and more about anticipating where human attention moves next.
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When positioning is this extended, you don't need much for an unwind.
@fejau_inc points to $META's possible compute sales and memory-efficiency rumors as the perfect storm when everyone is crowded into the same theme.
"Suddenly you just have this momentum factor implosion that we're seeing."
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NEW POD: The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking
We Cover:
🔸 AI momentum unwind
🔸 NFP & labor market cracks
🔸 How we’re trading the transition
🔸 BTC sentiment reset
🔸 Is gold back & more!
@qthomp @fejau_inc
Links Below ↓
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Forward guidance is really one of the best podcasts for macro context these days.
@qthomp Brings the hot takes
@Tyler_Neville_ brings the data
@fejau ties it all together with balanced composite analysis
Good track record of thinking where the puck may be headed.
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“If we deem you worthy, you get access to Mythos. If we don’t deem you worthy, you get Fable.”
@fejau_inc explains why AI model access could become a structural gatekeeping problem.
If frontier labs decide who gets the best models, they stifle innovation with permissioned access to intelligence.
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“It’s a very simple choice: the dollar or the bond market.”
@LukeGromen says Warsh will have to make a sacrifice.
He either lets rates rip or lets the dollar fall.
“We’ve hit max asymmetric hawkishness.”
@fejau_inc explains with two hikes already priced into the curve, the asymmetric trade is around cuts.
Even if the Fed stays flat, that is still a passive ease where SOFR has to price out hikes.
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