Forward Guidance
@ForwardGuidance
Macro Investing Podcast
Hosted by @fejau_inc
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105 Following 28.2K Followers
NEW POD
We Cover:
🔸 The Fed’s stagflation trap
🔸 America’s fading stimulus
🔸 Europe’s coming currency reset
🔸 The contrarian UK equity trade
🔸 Canada’s investment revival & more!
@VincentDeluard @fejau_inc @qthomp
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Joined By Vincent Deluard
01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish?
08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading
13:11 The Return Of Stagflation
21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake?
25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms?
32:35 Why AI Leaders Want Regulation
35:46 Will Europe Follow Japan?
48:45 The European Debasement Trade
59:28 Is The UK The Best Hedge?
01:05:41 Can Canada Reinvent Its Economy?
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NEW POD
We Cover:
🔸 Why stock correlations are so low
🔸 If dispersion trades unwind
🔸 Systematic tail hedging
🔸 AI concentration amplifying risk
🔸 If the Fed can calm markets & more!
@fejau_inc @Dcurnutt @Alpha_Ex_LLC
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed
10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade?
18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit)
20:21 Could Volmageddon Happen Again?
27:16 Why Tail Hedging Looks Attractive
35:35 Can Portfolio Insurance Ever Be Free?
39:55 Systematic Or Discretionary Hedging?
42:33 Where Could Market Risk Emerge?
47:27 Can The Fed Calm Markets?
53:22 Closing Thoughts
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NEW ROUNDUP
We Cover:
🔸 Bessent vs the bond market
🔸 Fed credibility hike?
🔸 Why growth may be peaking
🔸 AI’s political backlash & more!
@fejau_inc @qthomp
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market?
06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%?
11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap
18:29 Ads (TOKEN2049, Avalanche)
20:05 Will The Fed Hike?
26:08 Is One Credibility Hike Enough?
30:29 Is Economic Growth Peaking?
33:04 Can Debasement Trades Keep Running?
37:42 Is The AI Trade Breaking?
43:22 Final Thoughts
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AI may be repeating crypto’s biggest 2021 valuation mistake.
@fejau_inc argues frontier models look a lot like the old fat-L1 thesis: huge valuations built on the assumption that infrastructure captures most of the value, even as competition commoditizes the underlying layer.
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Well Warsh clearly took the first approach. Talk a big game about being serious on inflation, tame the long end, let the front end do some tightening for him without having to actually commit to anything.
Come September, it'll be a whole lotta nothing
There's only so many times you'll be able to play this card, Warsh.
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Druckenmiller’s WSJ Op-Ed could be good for Bessent.
@qthomp says Druck's call out might have been a trial balloon to establish that if long-end yields hit 5.5%, the problem is Congress and decades of fiscal excess, not Bessent.
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Frontier-model margins could be the real AI bubble.
Anthropic is fasttracking its IPO just as revenue growth slows and open-weight models close the performance gap at a fraction of the cost.
@fejau_inc says AI usage can keep exploding while the economics of the frontier-model layer get steadily more competitive.
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What will Warsh do this Friday at Jackson Hole?
@fejau_inc argues he may use hawkish rhetoric as a substitute for tightening with no rate decision actually on the line.
“Jackson Hole gives him a chance to talk a big game, try to tame the long end, and then just reverse course in September.”
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With inflation is screaming across commodities, Warsh’s next move is a credibility test.
If he keeps talking hawkish without actually tightening the balance sheet, his credibility is cooked.
If he doesn't commit, @qthomp says hold onto your inflation protection.
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"How big are the problems that they're doing yield curve control when the S&P 500 is at all-time highs?"
@qthomp says policymakers are clearly choosing inflation and currency debasement to support markets.
“If you wanna know how this ends, go price gold in yen.”
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Treasury's buyback announcement is fiscal Operation Twist.
"We're ramping into midterms. They're gonna goose it. Debasement trade's back, man."
Marginal macro policy is moving from the Fed to the Treasury.
Treasury's new buyback program will use bills to buy off-the-run long-end bonds.
"If that sounds like a different variation of QE, it's because it is."
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NEW POD
We Cover:
🔸 Treasury buyback announcement
🔸 Which hard assets we like
🔸 Midterm macro policy
🔸 Can the Fed stay hawkish?
🔸 Oil’s sneaky comeback
@fejau_inc @qthomp
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 DAS Asia October 7th
03:17 Treasury Buyback Announcement
12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist?
19:17 Where Does The Debasement Trade Go?
24:18 How Long Can They Goose Markets?
29:08 Can The Fed Stay Hawkish?
33:39 When Should You Buy Inflation Protection?
37:58 Is Debt Monetization Next?
41:25 Where Should Investors Hide?
46:12 Where’s The Next Bull Market?
51:58 Final Thoughts
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Markets always test big players with a target on their back.
@fejau_inc says it's not a coincidence SK Hynix missed just as leverage peaked.
Short sellers smelled blood and reflexivity took Situational Awareness out on a stretcher.
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Warsh got everything he wanted without hiking.
Equities weakened, credit spreads widened and real rates moved to levels that should slow housing and consumption.
@qthomp argues Warsh may be using the long end and balance sheet to tighten financial conditions before resorting to a hike.
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The bet Warsh is making before midterms:
Hawkish communication can tighten conditions before the political calendar makes another hike increasingly difficult.
“By the time we get to September, we may not need those hikes because the long end has already taken care of it.” – @fejau_inc
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AI could hit an air pocket before mass adoption arrives.
@stevehou says current CapEx cycle may lose momentum while large enterprises are still struggling to integrate AI into their workflows.
“The fastest adoption and most ROI show up in the smallest enterprises, but those are going to be small by dollar amount.”
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AI will not be a winner-take-all model market.
@stevehou argues enterprises will use cheaper open models for low-value tasks and reserve frontier intelligence for their most important work.
“The orchestration layer is going to accrue a lot of the value.”
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Michael Burry was wrong about chip depreciation.
@stevehou says growing inference workloads are turning older chips into durable workhorses.
Inference demand is so robust, even the A100 chip rental rate is going up.
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The US-China AI race may strengthen the hardware cycle.
@stevehou says both countries are investing more aggressively as China approaches the frontier models, potentially doubling overall compute demand.
“Chinese memory probably gets eaten up by Chinese demand by itself.”
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