#Lumentum’s# laser supply crunch is getting worse. In April, CEO Michael Hurlston told Bloomberg that products were essentially sold out through 2027, despite capacity expansion in Japan and a new U.S. wafer fab acquisition. Six months later, the outlook is even tighter: • Some products are shipping 30% below demand. • Shortages could extend into 2028. • 2029 capacity is already nearly sold out. • Another product category could face a 70% supply shortfall next year. The real bottleneck isn’t demand. It’s laser wafer fab capacity. In just six months, the sold-out horizon has shifted from 2027 to 2029. AI infrastructure is expanding faster than the optical supply chain can keep up.

Huber+Suhner jumped today after Lumentum said "we are experiencing considerable tightness in" OCS. Lumentum's MEMS OCS is the best but it doesn't have the capacity to meet all the growing demand, giving opportunities for others. We've seen this in chip manufacturing (TSMC is the best but no capacity so Samsung and Intel getting another look) and AI chips (Nvidia best but you need to get in a very long line, so rather have AMD than no AI chips) Huber+Suhner's piezo OCS has its own advantages of course (very low insertion loss)

Marvell and Lumentum's historic $115 billion deal > Largest M&A deal of 2026 (equity basis) > Second-biggest tech transaction on record > Biggest merger between two public companies in history

Marvell is buying Lumentum. 4.5 $MRVL shares for every $LITE share. A $115B enterprise value, all stock. In June, Jensen told Marvell's CEO: "You're going to be the next trillion-dollar company." How do you get there? You own the infrastructure layer. Marvell's custom chips plus Lumentum's optics: the compute and the light that connects it.

Bullish — $LITE $COHR $AAOI $SIVE Deutsche Bank: Lumentum’s advanced 200G lasers are “sold out for the foreseeable future,” at roughly 2x the prior-generation ASP. The Street is finally waking up and positioning. The next bottleneck is not the GPU. It is the laser that lights the link. Sold out, and the price went up. That window does not stay open. Move now, take advantage of this dip!

CEO of Lumentum, Michael Hurlston, on Lumentum's business: > Undershipping demand of some of their products by 30% into 2028, and almost sold out for 2029. > Some other products being undershipped by 70% next year. > Biggest bottleneck is laser chips. > Company is considering potential M&A to add CMOS into business portfolio, likely within the next year. > Chinese transceiver ban would be beneficial to Lumentum. > Have been able to work with the Chinese government to get supply permits on InP. > Chinese transceivers essentially have 100% market share in China, and 70% in USA. $LITE