So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.

What a week for the Outlier Capital Portfolio. Congrats to all the followers! +15.2% in 7 days. No leverage. No options. Just stock picking. S&P did +2%. We crushed it. 5x+ returns in 5 years is the target, repeatedly. Let’s go!

I know the main concern around $CRDO right now. AEC estimates for FY2028 are all over the place. People worry that multi plane architectures could push some links beyond the practical reach of AEC, or that optical transceivers could eventually replace AEC on certain connections. And because management kept raising FY2027 guidance, simply maintaining the optical outlook also disappointed some investors. I understand all of that. But my view is a little different. 👇

- This was more than a broad index rally, with particularly strong moves across AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and optical connectivity names. - The Nasdaq 100 gained 2.83%, well ahead of the S&P 500's 1.49%, indicating concentrated buying in growth and technology stocks. - $AXTI rose 14.14%, $INTC 12.14%, $SIVEF 9.47%, and $LWLG 7.45%, placing them among the strongest names on the screen. - Optical connectivity names also moved broadly higher, including $GLW +5.89%, $MRVL +5.38%, $CIEN +4.92%, $TSEM +4.57%, and $AAOI +3.33%. - Equipment and testing names were also broadly positive, with $AEHR +3.68%, $VECO +3.51%, $KEYS +2.10%, and $FORM +0.79%. - Larger optical-component names participated as well, with $LITE +2.53% and $COHR +1.31%, suggesting strength extended beyond smaller speculative names. - $VICR was particularly notable after hours, adding another 11.12% after gaining only 0.53% during the regular session. > The most interesting part of today's tape is that many of the photonics, optical-connectivity, and semiconductor-equipment names I follow moved higher at the same time. This looks less like a single-stock event and more like AI-infrastructure risk-on sentiment spreading across multiple layers of the supply chain. > The much larger moves in smaller optical and materials names such as $AXTI, $SIVEF, and $LWLG compared with $LITE and $COHR are especially interesting. It may suggest investors are extending exposure beyond established optical leaders into materials, light sources, and component-level names. > With the Nasdaq up 2.83%, the overall market was clearly a major tailwind, so one strong session should not be interpreted as a fundamental change in every company. Still, the fact that the broader AI-photonics basket materially participated is worth watching.

Get well my friend! @aleabitoreddit Lasers going brrr isn’t random. $LITE just put Qualcomm silicon + Corning fiber on a 1060nm VCSEL die-to-die link at ECOC. ~1 Tb/s/mm shoreline density now. Path to ~4. Built for CPO/NPO + UCIe scale-up. That’s the interconnect wall leaving copper. Optics is pricing it. Bullish! $LITE $COHR $AAOI $SIVE

I'm not having a fun day since I got sick today. But the bottlenecks are having a good time: $AMD +9.13% | $INTC +14.16% | $ARM +14.33% CPUs go brrr $SIVE +10.32% | $AAOI +3.39% | AMS OSRAM +24.61% Lasers go brrr $EWY +4.08% | $DRAM +2.83% | $MU +2.23% Memory go brrr $NBIS +4.7% | $CRWV +5.03% | $IREN +1.73% Compute go brrr Probably most material developments were CPU:GPU ratio expectations + CPU demand (from new AI releases). As well as optical developments from ECOC 2026 (as seen with $MRVL PR + others) Still a lot to catch up on.

ROTHSCHILD REDBURN LAUNCHES COVERAGE ACROSS AI DATA CENTER NAMES $NBIS: SELL, $84 PT Says Nebius has a demanding valuation and questions the sustainability of its unit economics. Upside could come from newer-generation GPUs, faster growth of its Token Factory inference business and stronger capacity execution. Risks include customers bringing compute in-house and higher funding costs. $CRWV: SELL, $54 PT Redburn questions CoreWeave's unit economics and ability to convert its pipeline into attractive returns. Key risks include hyperscalers or AI labs bringing capacity in-house, falling GPU pricing and higher financing costs. $DLR: BUY, $227 PT Highlights Digital Realty's global wholesale and colocation footprint, long-term tenant contracts and expansion into larger, higher-density facilities built for AI workloads and hyperscale customers. $EQIX: BUY, $1,261 PT Points to Equinix's global interconnection ecosystem as a key advantage, with AI, HPC, enterprise and cloud customers increasingly needing high-density compute close to networks and other infrastructure. $IRM: BUY, $132 PT Iron Mountain has expanded beyond its legacy records-storage business into data centers, information management and IT asset lifecycle services, while developing more power-dense capacity for AI workloads. The miner-to-AI names were treated much more cautiously: $APLD: NEUTRAL, $22 PT Says unit economics and pipeline-conversion risks are already well priced in. Upside comes from lower build/operating costs and additional large tenant signings. Risks include local opposition, construction delays and tenant insolvency. $IREN: NEUTRAL, $40 PT Sees upside from additional large-scale AI tenants and better execution at existing sites. Risks include difficulty securing tenants, higher funding costs and delays or cancellations. $WULF: NEUTRAL, $15 PT Potential upside comes from securing additional U.S. capacity and signing more major tenants. Permitting issues and state-level opposition are key risks. $CIFR: NEUTRAL, $18 PT Sees better or faster grid-capacity allocation and more major tenant deals as upside. Tenant pullouts and buildout delays are the main downside risks. $HUT: NEUTRAL, $96 PT Upside depends on faster data-center execution and securing additional grid capacity. Delays or cancellations in the buildout remain the key risk. $CORZ: NEUTRAL, $16 PT Core Scientific has been shifting capacity from Bitcoin mining toward AI/HPC hosting after emerging from bankruptcy, while continuing its mining business. Its proposed acquisition by CoreWeave collapsed last year after shareholders rejected the deal.

My prediction — $AAOI 2031 market cap: $75B. From $9B today. Mgmt’s own mid-2027 run-rate: ~$471M/month of data-center optics. That’s ~$5.6B annualized before mix shifts to 1.6T and own-laser content. Demand is not the constraint. Texas InP + U.S. capacity is. If they clear 35–40% Gross Margin with vertical lasers and hold even a mid-single-digit share of 1.6T/CPO modules, $75B from here is doable on a business the Street still models as “commodity transceiver.” I’m positioned. NFA.

Bernstein models $IREN scaling to ~5.8 GW longer term with cloud revenue reaching ~$17B and adjusted EBITDA ~$13B by 2030. Interesting that they assume Childress stays flat at 750 MW so almost all of that upside comes from proving Sweetwater design can be repeated across Oklahoma, Australia and Europe. Thats where the opportunity gets really large if IREN can execute with three-year contract pricing already up 125% even as the note also models ~$65B of incremental CapEx before the full revenue ramp.