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MegaETH Economics Note 1 I want to start offering informal notes on the MegaETH economy so people can get a high-level view of what is going on. Please note all figures, tables, graphs, and commentary should be considered preliminary and not to be relied upon (including resolution of prediction markets). Since I wrote on the topic earlier, let’s kick off with an update on the USDM money supply. Full definitions of M0, M1, and M2 are at the bottom. We will ignore M3, since it isn’t relevant for now. April 30, 2026 (TGE Day) M0: ~60 million M1: ~360 million M2: N/A May 15, 2026 (Today) M0: ~51 million M1: ~653 million M2: N/A What we see so far is that USDM supply is overwhelmingly concentrated in Aave. Most of the M0 supply is in DEXes, serving as liquidity primarily on Kumbaya, World Markets, and Prism, in that order. The fall in M0 is appears to be driven by reduced LPing on those protocols, while the M1 supply grew quickly before leveling off at its current level. The main observed demand drivers look like looping USDe and for using USDM as a funding currency, since it can easily be converted to USDC and used to refinance higher-rate debt on other chains. Both appear to be at an equilibrium at the moment. I hesitate to make predictions, but if I were, I would expect M1 to consolidate around here until Aave or another lending protocol provide other offerings that would increase M1. There have been no collateral asset additions to Aave since USDe, and the rate environment on other chains has been settling down, reducing the demand to refinance foreign USDC debt into domestic USDM debt. It’s still early days on MegaETH, so as more apps come online - in particular DeFi apps - I would expect considerable movements in both M0 and M1 supply. It will take deployment of a protocol with time deposits before we begin to see any real difference between M2 and M1. M2 showing up will mean a structured credit market is beginning to develop. I’ll close by noting that the core strengths of MegaETH’s app portfolio at launch have been consumer-facing financial entertainment apps that don’t directly impact the USDM money supply, but increase the velocity of USDM. Given the unexpectedly large monetary base of USDM out of the starting gate, it won’t make discussion of the *overall* USDM velocity of money very high, but are producing legitimate MegaETH GDP. I’ll try to track GDP directly as it grows in relation to the monetary base. Definitions: M0 consists of USDM held by the public outside of deposit-taking protocols, centralized exchanges, and companies M1 consists of 1) M0, 2) demand deposits denominated in USDM at deposit-taking protocols, centralized exchanges, and companies, and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of Other Checkable Deposits and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) M2 consists of (1) M1, (2) time deposits and maturing assets (<6 months) denominated in USDM
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I’ve seen some confusion about USDM supply, which is dropping on many dashboards. TLDR; this is healthy for a new ecosystem right now. But the explanation is long (although not complex): We always talk about “money” as if that’s a simple definition but economists have multiple definitions, each measuring a different set of assets considered part of the money supply. You may have heard terms like M1 money supply or M3 money supply if you read financial news a lot or took economics in school. At the bottom of the stack, the narrowest definition is M0 (which stablecoin issuer @m0 takes its name from). This is physical currency + your banks’ balance at the central bank. ⬆️ This is what most dashboards will show you for a stablecoin’s supply, because it’s relatively easy to count. Just add up the tokens, and of course central banks aren’t generally holding untokenized balances at Circle or Tether or Paxos. While this is a useful number, it excludes most of what we would in everyday usage call “money”. M1 is the next layer in the money stack, and includes M0 + demand deposits. When you say you have $500 in your checking account, you’re including M1 in your definition of money. ⬆️ This is where a deposit into @aave, @Morpho, or other short-term markets sits in the money stack. Quickly going through the other layers for your own curiosity: M2 = M1 + savings accounts + money market funds M3 = M2 + time deposits + repo agreements + short-term debt (usually up to 2 years) As of today, the M1 supply of USDM > M0 supply. Generally this is always the case with any currency, since it is what happens when fractional reserve lending, like on Aave, Morpho, Euler, Compound, or a traditional bank occurs. In the case of USDM, the M0 supply has shrunk while M1 has continued to grow. And remember that M1 cannot unwind without M0 (but can persist without it as long as the debt is healthy). This is due to a cross-chain carry trade. USDM has become a more attractive funding currency than USDC, and debt is being refinanced. This should be good news to those worried about USDM demand being purely for looping on the MegaETH Aave - it’s a second use case. Because Aave rates rise as utilization increases, at some point USDM will cease to be a good funding currency, and we’ll be at an equilibrium. This is growing pain of a healthy path for a new stablecoin (what’s the alternative, that no one wants to even borrow it?) - and is mostly a function of concentration on the Aave market. As USDM is accepted into other apps and another lender or three steps in for a piece of the market, I would anticipate less volatility in M0 supply of USDM, while M1 continues to grow at a more sustainable pace.
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👉Aethir organization As shown in the figure, @AethirCloud has five layers in terms of organizational structure. And the core members are as follows: 1 Chairman of the board, James  Rob(Luo Weiyu)  2 CEO,Daneil Wang 3 CMO,Joe    CSO, Marc Rydon   CTO,Kyle Okamoto   CRO,Pau Thindl  4 -5 Middle-level executives  🎆Board of directors: James Rob ,Daniel Wang ,Eric Hendrik Marc 👉Entities associated with Aethir 1 Token issuing entity of Aethir DCI Foundation (foundation ID:25055620), incorporated in Panama on the 31st day of January 2024,  is the token issuing entity. 2 Three operating companies of Aethir as follows: 2.1 M1 Network Group Limited, incorporated in the Cayman Islands on the 12th day of January 2022 (registration number:385948); 2.2 Meta 1 Network Limited, incorporated in the British Virgin Islands on the 29th day of December 2021. (registration number:2086997); and 2.3 Meta 1 Network Pte. Ltd., incorporated in Singapore on the 16th day of October 2021 (registration number:202136107R). 3 Fundraising entity of Aethir Aethir's fundraising entity is its BVI entity — Meta 1 Network Limited. @AethirCloud @AethirEco @AethirEdge @MRRydon  @paulthind @JoeDataCap @DanielAethir  @0xNicky @princecryptow3 @Jochem_In_Space @Arp_it1 @0xngmi @functi0nZer0 @zachxbt @tier10k @CryptoCred @RookieXBT @Tradermayne @dubzyxbt @abetrade @icebagz_ @CryptoLady_M  @watacchikasou @lucianlamp @SOU_BTC @btcfx295 @cryptobaby @only1mrwhite  @crypticworld7 @brian_armstrong @CryptoHayes @CoinDesk @Cointelegraph @CoinMarketCap @TheBlockCo @Blockworks @ForbesCrypto @PeckShieldAlert  @BitcoinNews @binance @coinbase @upbitglobal @okx @krakenfx @bitfinex #aethir# #ath# #JamesLuo# #DanielWang#
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this trader hit 370/1 wl and maded $8,931 in 2 weeks. > $1,247 today > $4,318 past week > 99.7% wr. everyone trades BTC 5-min. he found a quieter edge. china weather markets. guangzhou. beijing. wuhan. that's it. his stack: > CMA api (china meteorological administration) > ECMWF for cross-check > claude reads both, compares to polymarket price > enters NO at 90-96c on outcomes already 99% confirmed > Kelly criterion sizes the bet > waits for resolution f* = (p − m) / (1 − m) best trades: - guangzhou 22°C+ no, 94c -> $1.00 ($3,200 -> $3,403) - beijing 8°C+ no, 96c -> $1.00 ($4,150 -> $4,323) - wuhan 15°C+ no, 91c -> $1.00 ($1,890 -> $2,077) each trade pays 4-10%. he runs 25-30 a day. compounds daily. curve hasn't dipped once since april. straight line up. his profile: here's the asymmetry copy traders miss: - 4 trades at 96c copied separately = +4% x 4 = +16% - same 4 stacked into one parlay = +100-300% in one position stop copying his trades one by one. stack them. do it via most consistent weather wallet on polymarket. nobody's watching him yet. don't wait until the spread closes.
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