StreetAccount’s Bull/Bear Talking Points for Week-ended 30-Oct: 🐻 Bearish talking points • Big tech pressured despite largely upbeat AI takeaways with softness in other segments at both Google and Amazon and some scrutiny surrounding Microsoft's planned $25B+ debt sale. Elevated expectations also highlighted. Core businesses funding for AI buildout under some scrutiny in big tech earnings with focus on Google Search and Amazon advertising slowdowns (stock weakness another potential stumbling block). Tech earnings-driven pullbacks not limited to hyperscalers with Intel, ServiceNow, Fortinet, Sandisk, Seagate, Twilio, Reddit and Roblox some notable decliners. Input cost pressures across a range of industries with diesel/commodities, logistics and memory all flagged. Signs of bifurcated consumer and continued ramp in affordability pressures. Housing and repair/remodel weakness still an earnings/macro theme, particularly amid elevated rate backdrop. Resumption of kinetic activity in the Middle East following midterm elections still the consensus as US reportedly told several Gulf nations to prepare for a possible "short, intense" campaign against Iran. No uptick in 2026 hyperscaler capex guidance, a key bullish driver for the AI picks-and-shovels trade, while also thoughts capex discipline may be needed to reverse some of the negative hyperscaler sentiment. 🐂 Bullish talking points • AI trade bounced over first three days of week with funding overhang dampened (Meta, SpaceX, Broadcom), Anthropic S-1 and Oracle analyst day. Hyperscaler cloud growth and backlogs highlighted strong AI demand and companies all noted demand still exceeds available capacity. AI-driven power and grid buildout continued to ramp, highlighted by the likes of GE Vernova, Vertiv, Hubbell, AEP and Baker Hughes. Resilient consumer backdrop in focus with big consumer confidence beat and good Q3 metrics/Oct commentary from Visa and Mastercard. Rotation > broad risk off as late-week tech pressure accompanied by better breadth. Strong deal and capital return activity, including report of potential $80B+ acquisition of Lumentum by Marvell. Middle East diplomacy push kept de-escalation path open despite expectations for resumption of kinetic activity. Fed delivered a bit less of the "hawkish hold" than some expected, with focus on Warsh acknowledgement of tighter financial conditions, belief economy not running too hot, and dissent composition. $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $META $AVGO $ORCL $INTC $NOW $FTNT $STX $TWLO $RDDT $RBLX $LITE $MRVL $GEV $VRT $HUBB $BKR $V $MA $ANT #Anthropic# #BullBear# #MarketUpdate# #Equities# #FinTwit# #AI# #Tech# #BigTech# #AITrade# #Hyperscalers# #CloudComputing# #Capex# #MiddleEast# #Iran# #Fed# #HawkishHold# #Consumer# #PowerGrid# #AIInfrastructure# #MarketBreadth# #FinTwit# Gain immediate access to earnings insights with #StreetAccount#:

Market breadth is overrated. @sonusvarghese and I explain why on Facts vs Feelings Ep. 208 🎙️ 💻 10 of 11 sectors finished September in the red, but tech gained ~5%. Tech and tech-adjacent names are roughly half the S&P 500, and a breakout in the sector could lift the whole index into earnings season 🧠 Strong memory chip earnings, surging South Korean chip exports, and rising AI capex estimates all point the same way: profit growth is overpowering the rise in yields 📈 Q4 averages a 4.2% gain and is higher more than 80% of the time. A negative Q1 followed by a 10%+ Q2 has never produced a down Q4 🔥 Even after revisions, core PCE is running ~3% YoY and ISM prices indexes sit at multi-year highs. This is an inflationary growth environment 🏦 October hike odds fell from ~70% to ~20% after softer PCE, light payrolls, and dovish Fed comments. 💼 Headline payrolls were just 29K, but prime-age employment is 80.7%, layoffs are low, and Challenger cuts hit their lowest September since 2022 Sentiment is still in fear territory near all-time highs. Full episode 👇

Market breadth is deteriorating again. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks now trading above their 50-day moving average is down to 44%, the lowest since April. This figure has declined -14 percentage points since mid-August. At the same time, the % of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has dropped -10 points, to 64%, its lowest since June. This comes as the S&P 500 equal-weighted index has fallen -2.9% over this period, while the S&P 500 has declined just -1.4%. The market is increasingly being carried by fewer stocks.

Market breadth is deteriorating. The S&P 500 McClellan Oscillator fell below -72, its lowest level in 5+ months. After similar signals, $SPX was lower 10 of 13 times 5 days later. Not a good sign heading into next week’s FOMC.

Market selloffs are becoming increasingly selective: Over the last 20 S&P 500 down days, an average of 239 stocks finished positive, the highest reading on record. This is TRIPLE the levels seen during the 2022 bear market and nearly double the 20-year average of 133 stocks. Since June 1st, 9 of the last 14 down days in the S&P 500 saw ~64% of index names closing higher. By comparison, only ~32% of down days over the past year saw more stocks closing positive than negative. This suggests market weakness is being increasingly driven by a smaller group of stocks, with investors rotating rather than exiting equities. Market breadth is showing unusual strength during periods of weakness.

US equity market breadth is rapidly improving: The proportion of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average surged +5 percentage points on Friday, to 61%, the highest reading since mid-August. Since the October 1st intraday low, this figure has more than tripled. Additionally, the proportion of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average rose +3 percentage points on Friday, to 57%, the most since September 9th. Over the last 3 weeks, this figure has risen +17 percentage points. This comes despite the S&P 500 remaining roughly unchanged over the same period. This also ranks among the 3 sharpest improvements in market breadth over the last 3 years. On Thursday alone, 335 S&P 500 stocks finished higher, despite the index declining -1.2% on that day. The market is strengthening beneath the surface.

Is stock market breadth too narrow for comfort? Is buy-to-let still a viable investment? What jobs will your kids do in the age of the AI-enhanced workplace? This week’s Merryn Talks Money podcasts address these questions and many more