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💾 StreetAccount Update: $MU Micron Technology F4Q26 preview: focus on memory supply-demand dynamic Results and Outlook: • MU reports F4Q26 results AMC on 30-Sep-26. The Street expects revenue of $51.334B, above the $50.0B midpoint and $51.0B high-end of the guidance range, gross margin of 85.5%, slightly below the 86% guidance midpoint, operating expense of $1.436B vs. $1.65B guidance, and EPS of $31.72, above the $31.00 guidance midpoint. • For F1Q27, consensus currently expects revenue of $57.197B, gross margin of 86.3%, operating expense of $1.743B, and EPS of $35.47. Areas of Focus: • Memory Demand Trends: Investors will be looking for details on memory demand trends, commentary on duration and outlook on the supply-demand imbalance, and any updates on SCAs. • Server vs. Client: Server memory demand likely continues to significantly outpace supply and investors will be listening for updates on DDR5, HBM3 and HBM4 ASP/pricing dynamics, capacity and supply outlook, and shifting demand. On the client side, investors will be watching for details on demand trends, commentary on possible demand destruction, and PC/client outlook. • NAND: Investors will also be looking for updates on pace and duration of NAND ASP increases, capacity and supply forecasts. • Capex: Investors will be watching for FY27 capex guidance with consensus currently expecting $47.776B. $MU #Micron# #EarningsPreview# #MemoryMarket# #MemoryDemand# #ServerDemand# #MemoryChops# #Capex# #EPS# #ChipStocks# Gain immediate access to earnings insights with #StreetAccount#:
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DIGITIMES: Memory boom stays strong into 2027 DIGITIMES argues the memory upcycle is accelerating as AI infrastructure drives demand for DRAM, NAND and HBM, with supply remaining tight until meaningful new capacity starts arriving in 2027–2028 The biggest structural change is that memory demand is increasingly tied to AI accelerator architectures rather than PCs and smartphones. HBM4 adoption accelerates through 2026–27, followed by HBM4E, while Nvidia’s Vera platform moves toward removable SOCAMM2 LPDDR5X modules Enterprise storage is also benefiting. PCIe Gen6 enterprise SSDs are entering production, with Samsung and Micron already ramping products and Phison and Silicon Motion expected to launch Gen6 controllers in 2027 Capacity additions are substantial but mostly back-end loaded: · Samsung: Pyeongtaek P5 production in 2028, Yongin DRAM in 2029, new Onyang HBM packaging in 2029. · $SKHY: M15X already ramping in 2026, Yongin DRAM from Q1 2027, P&T7 HBM packaging by end-2027, Indiana HBM packaging in H2 2028. · $MU: Tungluo expansion, Hiroshima DRAM, Singapore HBM packaging from 2027, new NAND capacity in H2 2028, Idaho expansion in 2027–28 and New York DRAM from 2030.
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Dan Ives on memory demand: "I just landed from Korea and we're seeing memory chip demand/supply 13 to 1." For every 1 unit of memory capacity available, buyers are requesting for 13 units. Via @CNBC $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY
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Thoughts on memory: Anyone who thinks compute will stay in shortage while memory slides into oversupply must be smoking something. Compute and memory are destined to tighten together or deflate together. One cannot die while the other survives. By the same logic, the pods shorting memory and going long HDD are out of their minds. How do you think HDD isn't joined at the hip with memory? You really think HDD stays safe if this cycle rolls over? In the end, all of this comes down to nobody having conviction about what happens after 2027. Historically, we have watched P peak one to two quarters before supply ramps, then Q expands and the entire profit pool collapses. But everyone forgets that this cycle runs on nonstandard products, unlike PCs, smartphones, and general purpose servers, and that it was triggered by factors different from past cycles. This is because of the boomers who still see memory as an industry where you make a killing in the upcycle and lose your shirt in the downcycle. These self proclaimed veterans view memory through the lens of their past experience, and since they drive the market and set the stock prices, memory trades at such a low valuation. What I keep saying is that a sharp collapse like in the past is impossible. A gradual decline is possible. But even if Samsung and SK Hynix margins were cut in half from current levels, they would still trade at a P/E in the teens. That is still roughly half of HDD valuations. Personally, I think that as memory prices fall, other sources of demand will absorb the supply at each step down. In particular, I expect personal AI demand, led by local AI, to emerge. Looked at another way, for local AI to take off, the hyperscaler driven spike in memory prices has to be brought under control. At current memory prices, local AI can never diversify. Just as mainframes gave way to PCs and the cloud gave way to smartphones, each time carrying the cycle from P into a Q expansion phase, I think this AI cycle will also move from frontier labs to local open source AI. Based on these historical precedents, I believe local AI will take over the memory cycle from the frontier labs and carry memory demand. I am not saying memory prices will hold for more than a decade. Memory P will fall at some point. But what is different from the past is that new consumer devices and new consumer demand, such as open source driven local AI, will support the floor for memory. So the market right now keeps discounting these stocks out of fear of a memory peak nobody can time. This discount is being driven by boomer investors who dismiss the idea that AI supports the downside and keep pushing the view that earnings will collapse and the trough will revert to past levels too. My point is that this is completely wrong.
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Now Micron says AI memory demand will outrun supply through 2028. CEO has no line of sight on when it balances. Hardware still seems like a good investment.
Even with global Memory capacity expanding by ~20% annually from 2026-2028 per recent estimates, it's hard to see a situation where the supply/demand inbalance closes. According to JPM, they believe 300k additional wafer capacity is needed for the supply/demand picture to be balanced in 2028. I'm not sure how realistic this is though, especially when you consider that sell-side firms have barely even considered that memory demand will keep expanding from GPU to CPU.
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UBS on Samsung: > Memory demand keeps increasing headed into 2027 > 60% of demand is fulfilled; unfulfilled spilling over into 2027 base line. > Undersupply worsening in 2027. > HBM de-spec related to customers managing supply. Not translating to demand reduction. > Estimated 90% YoY increase in HBM pricing for Samsung in 2027. $DRAM $EWY $MU
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👀 AI will continue to drive memory demand in 2027, keeping #DRAM# tight and prices firm. As #NAND# Flash capacity expands and consumer demand weakens, will second-half price corrections reshape the market? 💡More analysis #TrendForce#: 🔗
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⚔️ Three companies control the world’s memory supply AI is transforming memory demand, but barely changing its hierarchy. Samsung, $SKHY , and $MU control  90% of global DRAM supply, a share expected to remain largely intact through 2027.
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$MU says each wave of AI is driving massive memory demand with ~4x more HBM per GPU for training, 30x annual context growth for agents and over 10x more DRAM in robotaxis. AI is creating an entirely new level of demand across HBM, DRAM and storage as each wave builds on the last rather than replacing it.
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