Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella on the “Mundane” Risk of Misaligned AI: It Can Cook Your Books!
“One of the fascinating things right now is the insider risk.
I can happen for a very mundane task that I give one of these frontier models inside an enterprise.
Suppose I say, ‘Hey, go optimize my working capital.’ It may fake my books, right? This is a new type of insider risk.”
How to fix these risks? Classic engineering playbooks
“I would say, ‘Oh, go build a causal model, like a semantic model that actually checks and verifies.’
So I think there's a lot of product building, making things more robust, which is classic engineering that we should be talking a lot more about transparently versus saying, ‘Hey, this is so mystical that we can't figure this out.’”
$MSFT
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JD Vance to AI Labs: Don’t Build “Frankenstein” and Then Ask for Government Regulation
@JDVance:
“Why is it that the people who are at the frontier of the AI economy are throwing up their hands and saying, ‘Well, we've built Frankenstein,’ and the solution to Frankenstein apparently is to create a one world governance structure for artificial intelligence?
What I would say to those people: If you're building Frankenstein, stop.
If the cat is out of the bag, then build the defensive mechanism against Frankenstein.
And you know, I don't know Dario well. I've read everything that he's said over the past couple of weeks. Everybody that I know tells me that he's very earnest, that this is a deeply held belief. It's not cynical. It's not about regulatory capture, that he genuinely cares about this.
But at the same time, I talk to tech companies. I'm sure you guys talk to a lot more tech companies than I do. At the same time that you have this sort of cyber hacking tool that's come out of Anthropic's newest models, you have companies that are desperate for the defensive mechanisms to defend against that cyber hacking tool, and they're being denied access to it.
So if you're going to create Frankenstein, don't come to the government and say, ‘We need regulation.’
Look inward and accept that if you're building Frankenstein, number one, you should stop, and number two, when the companies come to you and say, ‘We need the tools to fight back against Frankenstein,’ give them those tools.”
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Thanks to our partners for making this possible!
IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference.
Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all.
Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America.
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Digit lost its bird legs! 🦿
@agilityrobotics released Digit 5 today, and the most visible change is the knees.
The ostrich-style backwards legs are gone, replaced with human-like ones.
Jonathan Hurst, co-founder and chief robot officer, was explicit that this wasn't a move toward looking more human:
💬 "The previous leg configuration was really optimized for very good walking and running. The new configuration is optimized for lifting heavy things and getting up and down off the ground a lot."
The same logic shows up in the hands, where the argument gets I would say even sharper.
He says general-purpose hands don't exist, aren't on the market, and aren't coming soon. His evidence is Cybathlon, where amputees compete at manipulation tasks using prosthetics.
The winner two years running used a single-degree-of-freedom parallel-jaw gripper with one rotation at the wrist, beating competitors with five-fingered hands.
So Digit 5 runs a two-finger gripper, swappable through ISO-standard mounting flanges:
→ Repeatable lifts up to 22.7 kg on proprietary cycloidal actuators, covering single-person lift tasks in OSHA-regulated facilities
→ 90 minutes of work, 9 minutes to full charge. A 10:1 run-to-charge ratio, up from 2:1 on Digit 4, which puts it past 20 working hours in a 24-hour day
→ 129 kg, 1.81 m tall, reaching to 2.2 m, up from 1.68 m
→ 360° person detection with no fixed safety zones. It slows, stops, or sits down and cuts motor power before anyone can touch it, with an independent safety controller overseeing the response
First commercial availability outside North America, starting with the EU and UK, CE mark expected. Early access in H1 2027, general availability by the end of 2027.
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🚨 ClickHouse's net dollar retention is currently above 200%.
20VC just dropped a fantastic new episode with Aaron Katz, CEO of ClickHouse.
A must-listen for every $NBIS investor.
Here’s my detailed summary:
1) ClickHouse is growing at an insane pace.
The revenue trajectory Aaron shared was:
$0M → $12M → $50M → $200M → $500M+ expected this year.
He believes ClickHouse can reach $1B in ARR before December 2027.
2) The company could go public as early as next year if it wanted to, but there’s no rush.
His goal is to build a company that lasts decades, not optimize around the next financing round or IPO window.
He also highlighted some of the downsides of being public today, particularly the volatility and the impact that large stock-price moves can have on employees.
3) Net dollar retention is above 200%.
That’s mind-blowing.
The reason is that customers tend to start with one workload and then expand ClickHouse into others: data warehousing, real-time analytics, observability, customer-facing applications, etc.
That expansion dynamic is extremely powerful.
Importantly, gross retention is above 99%.
4) ClickHouse now has 4,000+ customers.
Some customers spend tens of millions of dollars per year, while he estimates the midpoint production customer is around $100k.
Importantly, AI-native companies still represent less than 12% of revenue.
So despite ClickHouse being one of the major infrastructure beneficiaries of the AI boom, there appears to be relatively little customer concentration risk.
5) Enterprise adoption is accelerating.
Aaron said sales cycles at large enterprises are compressing significantly.
Historically, sales cycles into major financial institutions could be measured in years rather than quarters. Now, companies are adopting new technologies much faster.
Open source and product-led growth help here because customers can evaluate, deploy and scale ClickHouse without going through a traditional enterprise sales process first.
6) AI agents could massively expand database consumption.
Aaron thinks the database requirements of agentic applications are fundamentally different from traditional software.
Humans tend to run predictable reports and dashboards. Agents can simultaneously execute dozens of unpredictable queries across multiple systems.
That makes three things increasingly important:
Latency. Throughput. Efficiency.
One example he gave: Tesla is ingesting around 1 billion events per second into ClickHouse.
And unlike humans, agents don’t naturally care about limiting consumption. That means query volumes could explode.
7) Eventually, agents may choose the infrastructure themselves.
Today, a developer might ask Claude: “What database should I use?”
And Claude might recommend ClickHouse.
Aaron expects that eventually the agent itself will provision the entire stack: database, networking, compute, storage, etc.
In that world, infrastructure companies won’t just be competing for developers. They’ll also be competing to become the default choice of AI agents.
ClickHouse is already benefiting from that dynamic.
He said Anthropic told them it chose ClickHouse for a specific observability workload after asking Claude which technology it should use.
His long-term goal is therefore straightforward: make ClickHouse the default database for applications built by agents, not just humans.
8) AI is accelerating ClickHouse’s own development roadmap.
Internally, ClickHouse’s Anthropic usage has increased roughly 100x since the beginning of the year.
He said the company is shipping products faster than ever and entering product categories roughly two years earlier than originally planned.
His view on AI coding costs is simple: if product velocity and revenue growth keep accelerating, he doesn’t care much about optimizing token spend today.
Especially because inference costs should continue declining.
9) ClickHouse probably underinvested in sales.
The company has only around 100 quota-carrying salespeople despite operating at hundreds of millions in revenue.
Aaron admitted that, looking back, he should have increased sales capacity sooner.
Competitors in data warehousing and observability can have thousands of salespeople.
ClickHouse intentionally focused on product, engineering and product-led growth first, following something closer to the Datadog playbook than Snowflake’s enterprise-heavy GTM strategy.
Now it's layering a larger enterprise sales motion on top.
10) The company is unusually efficient.
ClickHouse has close to 800 employees and expects to reach around 1,000 by year-end.
Despite that, it's already generating hundreds of millions in revenue with only ~100 quota-carrying salespeople.
Aaron said average sales rep productivity is very high relative to the industry.
11) ClickHouse is already a very international business.
More than half of revenue comes from outside the US.
Roughly 40% from EMEA, 10% from Asia.
More than half of customers are also outside North America.
ClickHouse is live in 36 regions around the world across AWS, Google Cloud and Azure.
That global footprint is one reason Aaron believes the company can’t operate from just one or two centralized hubs.
12) ClickHouse is also seeing renewed interest in on-prem infrastructure.
Aaron said even some highly innovative digital-native Silicon Valley companies are discussing moving parts of their stack away from hyperscalers and back on-prem.
That matters because ClickHouse wants to support multiple deployment models: cloud and on-prem/private environments.
His view is that forcing enterprises into one deployment model ultimately limits the addressable market.
13) The moat isn’t simply the open-source database.
One common investor concern is:
“What stops AWS, Google or Microsoft from just offering ClickHouse themselves?”
Aaron acknowledges this risk.
His answer is that open-source companies need to maintain proprietary/cloud functionality that's sufficiently difficult to replicate.
He also says the competitor he fears most isn’t Snowflake or Databricks. It’s the company that doesn’t exist yet.
ClickHouse itself appeared seemingly out of nowhere and disrupted established database vendors. He worries about someone eventually doing the same to ClickHouse.
14) ClickHouse wants to become much broader than an analytical database.
The company has already completed six acquisitions in four years.
The most recent example mentioned was Langfuse, which pushed ClickHouse further into AI agent observability.
His framework is interesting:
If ClickHouse can build something internally, let engineering do it. If an exceptional team is already building a product on top of ClickHouse in an area that will eventually belong inside the broader platform, consider acquiring them.
The ambition is clearly moving toward becoming a much broader data platform.
15) ClickHouse has a very strong balance sheet.
Aaron said the company had around $1B on the balance sheet and didn’t actually need the additional capital from its recent financing.
That gives ClickHouse plenty of flexibility to keep investing aggressively in product, hiring, M&A and international expansion.
16) Aaron thinks AI infrastructure revenue is more durable than application-layer revenue.
He believes the biggest risk when investing in many AI application companies is revenue durability.
Applications can have relatively low switching costs. Infrastructure tends to have much higher switching costs once it becomes deeply integrated into production systems.
That's one reason he's skeptical of simply extrapolating hypergrowth at some AI application companies indefinitely.
For infrastructure, slower initial adoption can actually produce much more durable revenue later.
17) He definitely doesn’t believe AI is a bubble.
When asked for a widely held AI belief he disagrees with, Aaron picked the idea that AI is overhyped or simply another temporary hype cycle.
“We’re just getting started.”
He lived through internet, mobile and social, and says none of those cycles accelerated as quickly as AI is accelerating today.
The combination of AI applications, agents and exploding data consumption could create infrastructure demand unlike anything we’ve seen before.
FINAL THOUGHTS
ClickHouse is incredibly well positioned to benefit from the surge in data consumption driven by AI agents and increasingly compute-intensive workloads.
$NBIS investors shouldn’t assume an IPO is imminent. Aaron said ClickHouse could go public as early as next year, but made it clear there’s no urgency to do so.
That might actually be the right decision for long-term value creation. If ClickHouse continues executing at anything close to its current pace, I can clearly see a path toward becoming a $100B+ company over the next few years.
Any analyst valuing $NBIS without accounting for its stake in ClickHouse is missing a significant part of the picture.
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A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:
1. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps for the first time since July 2023 in a unanimous 12-0 decision. In its statement, the Fed said Middle East conflicts and broader geopolitical developments contributed to the decision. The updated dot plot now points to one more 25 bps hike in 2026, with 12 of 18 officials expecting exactly one additional hike, 4 expecting two more hikes, and 2 expecting no further hikes. The Fed also projects 2 additional rate hikes in 2027, signaling policymakers expect rates to remain higher for longer.
2. President Trump is expected to meet with Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York next Tuesday to discuss the next phase of the Iran conflict, according to reports. The discussions are expected to focus on U.S. proposals for a postwar strategy, with leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, expected to participate. The meeting comes as the administration works on a broader postwar framework ahead of the Sept. 24 Trump–Xi summit, where regional security and AI are also expected to be discussed.
3. Generac $GNRC signed a long-term agreement to supply backup power generators for Amazon $AMZN data centers, with total payments under the deal potentially reaching $8B. Initial generator deliveries are expected to total roughly $2.4B across 2027 and 2028. As part of the agreement, Amazon received warrants to purchase up to 1.69M Generac shares at $200.93 each, with about 308K shares vesting immediately and the rest vesting in stages as Amazon’s payments move toward the $8B threshold. The warrants are exercisable through September 2033. The deal gives Generac a major long-term hyperscaler customer as AI data center growth continues driving demand for backup power and broader energy infrastructure.
4. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said today’s rate hike removed a “dose of accommodation,” adding that the move shows the Fed is serious about restoring price stability. Warsh also said he believes the Fed can bring inflation back under control without damaging the labor market: “We don’t need to do harm to the job market to achieve our objective.” On AI, he said the Fed is closely monitoring developments but that decisions around AI’s risks and rewards belong to other policymakers, adding that the Fed’s AI task force is expected to report back by year-end. Meanwhile, White House official Desai called the Fed’s rate hike “rather unfortunate.”
5. Nebius $NBIS announced another ~20% price increase for on-demand H100, H200, B200, and B300 GPUs, effective October 1, just 4 months after raising prices by roughly 30%. The company also posted 5 first-place results in the latest MLPerf AI inference benchmarks, including the top full-rack performance on NVIDIA’s GB300 NVL72. Nebius was one of only 2 companies to submit results on NVIDIA’s next-generation Vera Rubin NVL72 platform, achieving 603K tokens/sec running DeepSeek R1 across 72 GPUs in the preview category. The results further reinforce Nebius’ infrastructure capabilities, engineering execution, and close partnership with NVIDIA.
6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.0M contracts, $TSLA with 2.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.6M contracts, $SPCX with 1.2M contracts, $INTC with 1.0M contracts, $MU with 857K contracts, $META with 857K contracts, $AMZN with 854K contracts, $AMD with 743K contracts, and $HOOD with 403K contracts.
7. Trump administration officials are reportedly considering a meeting with major AI and tech executives on the sidelines of Xi Jinping’s Washington visit next week, though nothing has been finalized, according to CNN. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang are among those expected to be in Washington for the state dinner and could potentially attend. The proposed discussion would focus on the future of AI and related risks, although Xi is not currently expected to participate. The meeting comes as the U.S. and China also prepare to discuss shared AI risks ahead of the September 24 Trump–Xi summit.
8. Chipotle $CMG is partnering with Palantir $PLTR to strengthen food safety monitoring across its restaurants. Chipotle will use Palantir’s platform to track potential food safety risks, including pest incidents, employee illnesses, and other operational factors that could impact restaurant safety. The partnership comes after a challenging summer for food safety across the U.S. and highlights how Palantir continues expanding beyond government and industrial customers into large-scale commercial use cases, where its software is being used to improve operational decision-making and risk management.
9. U.S. homebuilder confidence fell to 32, its weakest reading since late 2022, as elevated mortgage rates continued weighing on demand. The average 30-year mortgage rate has climbed back above 7%, near its highest level in almost 2 years. Builders are increasingly responding with incentives, with 38% cutting prices and 66% offering buyer concessions. At the same time, housing inventory has reached a 7-year high, while Redfin estimates there were 58% more sellers than buyers in August, the widest imbalance since it began tracking the data in 2013.
10. Nokia $NOK is expanding AI-RAN trials with operators across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East as carriers move from early evaluations into lab and live-field testing. The platform combines Nokia’s anyRAN software with NVIDIA’s Aerial RAN Computer and has delivered more than 20% improvement in spectral efficiency, according to Nokia. New and ongoing partners include A1 Group, Chunghwa Telecom, du, e&, Mobily, stc, TPG Telecom, Zain Saudi, and NTT DOCOMO, while earlier evaluations involved T-Mobile, SoftBank, and Indosat. Nokia and NVIDIA are also expanding their AI-RAN collaboration as the telecom industry moves toward AI-native 5G and 6G networks.
11. Apple $AAPL is reportedly weighing a return to the server market with an AI-focused enterprise system built around its own M-series chips and NVIDIA’s NVLink Fusion networking technology, according to The Information. The proposed servers would use either 2 or 4 M8 Ultra chips and target AI developers, enterprises, and governments looking to run AI inference on private infrastructure. The project is currently aimed for 2029, though the plans could still change or be canceled. The move follows surging demand from AI developers for Mac mini and Mac Studio systems, helping drive Mac revenue up nearly 29% last quarter to $10.4B. If launched, it would mark Apple’s return to the server market for the first time since discontinuing Xserve in 2011.
12. CoreWeave $CRWV signed a definitive 15-year anchor lease with Blockfusion for capacity at its Niagara Falls, New York AI data center campus. The former power plant is being converted into a high-density, liquid-cooled AI facility powered predominantly by hydroelectric energy. The agreement further expands CoreWeave’s long-term AI infrastructure footprint while leveraging low-cost, renewable power to support next-generation GPU deployments.
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
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