RECAP: 3 major FX pairs respected our upside targets this past week! 👉 🇯🇵 USDJPY+ hit upside target we'd set on June 22nd. Then, there was a historic Yen intervention! 🇪🇺 EURUSD+ hits upside target we'd set on June 29th. 🇬🇧 GBPUSD+ hits upside target we'd set on July 27th. Tap link below to see these big FX moves you might have missed👇🏽 #MarketPulse# #TradingEducation# #traders# #ForexTrader# #currencies# #tradfi# @Bybit_Official

The Yen carry trade is dying. Before April 2025, the USD/JPY currency pair showed a close correlation with the 10Y rate differential between US and Japanese bonds. This was driven by investors borrowing in Yen to fund higher-yielding US Dollar assets through the carry trade. That relationship broke down after "Liberation Day," when trade war uncertainty triggered a surge in market volatility and forced investors to unwind some of their carry trade positions. Meanwhile, the 10Y Treasury note yield is now trading ~2.0 percentage points above the Japanese 10Y Government Bond Yield, falling -1.0 percentage point since April 2025, near the lowest gap since 2021. Yet, USD/JPY continued to move higher as the US Dollar strengthened against the Yen, despite the narrowing yield gap, breaking away from the interest rate differential that historically drove the pair. In other words, the carry trade is losing its influence, with the Yen no longer driven primarily by rate differentials as investors increasingly price in Japan’s heavy debt burden and rising debt servicing costs. Japan’s rising debt costs are becoming impossible to ignore.

Why is everything dumping today? Over $1.4 trillion wiped out across stocks, metals and crypto. Key reasons: 1. Investors are de-risking before tomorrow's Fed decision. 2. The Senate is stalling the Clarity Act to focus on other bills. 3. Concerns over increased competition from China's DUV chipmaking. 4. Markets are questioning huge AI spending. 5. USD/JPY near 164 is raising fears of BOJ intervention.

Paradis Macro Report [June 16]: Catalysts · FOMC · US/Iran Peace Deal · AI Trades & Positioning -> Today is day one of a brutal catalyst cluster: - Tomorrow: Warsh's first FOMC - Tomorrow: UK May CPI + US May retail sales - Thursday: BoE - Friday: US/Iran signing ceremony (US markets shut) - June 22: Index rebalance - $MRVL joining S&P 500. $ALAB, $CRWV, $NBIS, $RKLB, $TER joining Nasdaq. - June 24: $MU earnings -> FOMC tomorrow is most important: It'll be a near-certain hold decision, and the markets have fully priced in cuts to hikes in 2026. With CNBC reporting 66% chance of at least 0.25 pt hike by end of 2026. Already priced (neutral): A hold, removal of the easing bias, a 2026 median dot showing zero cuts, one hike by year end, "inflation elevated" language. Hawkish surprise: A two hike 2026 median dot, explicit signal of a September/October hike, Warsh framing the energy shock as structural, scrapping the dot plot in a way that lifts term premium. Dovish surprise: Warsh leaning on AI-productivity to argue inflation is nearly tamed, framing oil as transitory, a 2026 median that still shows zero hikes. Hawkish dot/guidance -> bad for long-duration AI-semis. "Transitory energy" framing -> risk-on. -> US/Iran Peace Deal The US/Iran peace deal is what's led to a more risk-on market this week. Where on Sunday, Trump posted that the deal "is now complete," authorizing "the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz." Things are still unfolding, with the formal signing due on Friday, with the US and Iran both describing different deals: - US: expecting permanently toll-free transit and full nuclear dismantlement - Iran: saying transits are toll-free for 60 days then administered by Iran + Oman w/ "no new nuclear commitments" Also important to note that the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. But both Brent + WTI dropped to two-month lows. And 10Y yields fell to ~4.43% intraday (one month low). Leading to all the equity indices rising this week. Ofc partly driven by $SPCX going ape shit. Regardless, Hormuz reopening would: - Remove the inflation tail (energy was the bulk of May's CPI gain) - Relieve Fed hike pressure - Broadly risk-on for higher beta AI stocks Also, US markets are closed on Friday so headline gap risk is elevated. -> AI Trades & Positioning: Would not cut core AI infra longs right now. Personally, I trimmed some of the more crowded/high multiple/post rebound names like $CRDO / $ALAB etc. And holding core names like $NVDA / $AVGO / $TSM plus optical names like $LITE / $COHR. I've also got some FX hedges on e.g. USD/JPY which are relatively cheap rn. Then for positioning into FOMC: Hawkish playbook: long-duration semis like $NVDA + $AMD are most rate-sensitive and lead down on a hawkish dot / 10Y >4.7%. Memory ($SNDK / $MU) is more earnings-driven and somewhat insulated. However, for most people, I would generally avoid placing short-term trades into macro events. Especially riskier instruments like options/leverage. --- I could honestly turn this into a 5,000 word report lol, but that's the *very* high level summary.