In the past 6 months, roughly ~$1bn has been hacked / stolen across DeFi (with Drift and KelpDAO obv being the primary drivers of this loss). During that timeframe, DeFi TVL (with lending and liquid staking making up most of the losses) dropped roughly $86.0bn (from a local high of $171.0bn across DeFi in October to $85.0bn today)
From Jan through April of this year, most of that fall was price-related (ETH deposits as a benchmark ticked up). In April, capital flight has been the theme; case in point: ~$13bn shifting out of DeFi in 48 hrs after the rsETH exploit
And? A few more stats to paint the picture
>In the past ~12 weeks, DeFi TVL (cc
@DefiLlama) has fallen ~$30bn (~30%) while BTC rose from a local low of $62.8k to $78.5k (+25%)
>DeFi has yet to reach its November 2021 TVL all time high of $178.0, coming up on 5 years ago. In that time since November 2021, total stablecoin market cap has grown from ~$134bn to ~$320bn (+138%), with ~$166bn in stablecoin mcap growth in the last two years
>BTC has fallen from its local November 2021 high of ~$64k to the December 2022 low of ~$16k, risen to a new ATH of ~$124k in October 2025, and now sits at ~$78k, still up 25% from November 2021. But DeFi TVL is still less than half of what it was in November 2021
So what to do? / What to fix?
>Vast majority of alts have failed to find real use cases or any real need to be held over the past 5 years. It's negative EV to hold maybe all but 5-10 crypto-native assets, if that many; probably structural change needed here
>Difficult to see pooled lending (which has been the majority of this DeFi TVL) / pooled risk grow beyond it's current scale (or maybe it's peak scale, being generous as asset prices rise in a more favorable market). Little need for large capital that can access risk segmented venues to keep accepting the risk of the generalized pool--open to arguments from pooled maxis who want to provide the counter
>Security, both smart contract and, more recently, OpSec, continue to make DeFi semi-unusable for anyone with decent trad banking/brokerage access. Why take the risk? What's the draw, esp with yield compressed to maybe a few points above EFFR? cc recent news around some of the most active onchain users continually shifting off (
@Cbb0fe, Loracle, etc). Which leads into...
>What's the use case? Need cogent reasons for people not limited by dollar access to want/need to come onchain. In 2021, that was novel financial primitives, a belief in governance tokens as new modes of "company capitalization," and wild yield. What are the reasons for the dollar holder offchain to come onchain in 2026? Some q's I'm thinking on