Our full @Polymarket H1 report, in partnership with @Surfdeveloper, is now live 👇 This report covers: * Venue growth, market composition, and fee economics * User growth, cohort profiles, and PnL breakdowns * Market structure and user behavior, fee sensitivity and entry timing Podcast interview live at:

The smartphone moment for compute. Smartphones took over the world when carriers changed how you pay. Sign a 2-year plan, pay monthly, and the phone is yours at the end. Today, @b3labs opens up the rent-to-own model for AI with the launch of B3IQ: a new model for owning, running, and monetizing compute. The workhorse machine of this cycle is the 8x H200 node. If you rent these from a neocloud, two years of rent can be equal to the full sticker price... except you own nothing at the end. B3IQ sells you the box for ~30% down. US-assembled, hosted & managed in their 27,000 sq ft Oregon facility, with title in your name and compute in your control. But unlike the iPhone, these assets can pay for themselves. Idle capacity rents out through the B3IQ offtake marketplace, paying down the machine's outstanding balance. Renting compute means someone else sets your pricing, your policy & your priority in the queue. It's the ultimate platform risk for the next generation of businesses. Ask the companies going AI-native across Silicon Valley. Nearly every single one is bringing compute in-house to run & train open-source models. Or ask the researchers at Stanford, NYU, Dartmouth & Univ. of Hawaii who use B3IQ today to accelerate their research on cancer, human trafficking, and war zone evacuations. They need B3's predictable compute costs and data privacy that hyperscalers can't provide. Proud to be on this journey w/ @darylX24, @viktoriya0x & @seangeng since leading @b3labs seed round. The team has been cooking ever since. Now it's time to make compute own-able and accessible to the world. If you believe in the future of AI, own the machines that power it. If you are building with AI, own your destiny and take control of your compute.

What is the world betting on? H1 audited data via @Surfdeveloper MCP shows that Sports account for half of Polymarket International’s taker-leg volume. Crypto follows at ~30%, inflated by the controversial MicroStrategy market; while World/Geopolitics ranks third at ~15%.

July snapshot (avg open interest / one-sided taker volume / daily turnover): Kalshi: $970M OI · $13.3B vol · ≈0.44×/day Polymarket Intl: $420M OI · $3.0B vol · ≈0.23×/day Polymarket US: $100M OI · $2.0B vol · ≈0.64×/day Two puzzles: 1) How did Kalshi do $10.3B more‼️ volume than Polymarket Intl in July, with only $550M more OI? 2) And how did Polymarket US print almost same volume as Intl's with just $100M OI?

People been mogging Polymarket volume down bad. The truth is, while Polymarket International volume holds up stable, a quiet part of the story is that Polymarket US has been growing strong. Note: volume below are counted on single-leg taker volume, different from notional volume and is roughly half of it

In Polymarket’s 5-minute crypto markets, week-4 wallet retention falls to just 20.5% But trade activity holds up better The cohort is still making ~39% as many trades as it did in week 1.

Super excited to release the study with @0xallyzach on the microstructure of Short-term Crypto Markets, where we cover an overview on the growth momentum & economics on both @Kalshi and @Polymarket, plus a deep dive into Polymarket’s user segments and 🕵🏻‍♂️ potential market manipulation: This is a "MEV" strategy that no one has called out lout til now (which allegedly long-existed in option trading) — Some traders appear to have figured out how to influence the closing price of Polymarket’s 5-minute BTC Up/Down markets while betting and profiting. 👇🧵

Binance is arguably the world's largest crypto exchange. Feb 2026: Polymarket lists a small 5-minute Bitcoin contract. Since then, Binance order flow spikes in the final seconds before settlement; prices revert soon after. New paper with David Dai and Shihao Yu ( @ShihaoY ): Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets ( The finding, up front: Traders push Bitcoin's price in the final seconds to decide the contract. That push makes the price less informative, yet Bitcoin's market more liquid. Market makers are largely insulated; ordinary traders lose $7.6M in two months.

Cannot express how grateful I am to partner up with yet another prestigious VC firms in crypto: @PanteraCapital. Their research team built this entire report on Surf. Polymarket, Kalshi, and Binance data, all through one API. They backed us early. Now they publish on our data.

Short term up-down markets are one of the key volume drivers today on Polymarket and other prediction market problems. @0xallyzach @sui414 on our research team have done a wonderful job breaking down price volatility patterns in 5min BTC markets + what this means

one of the clearest patterns in polymarket’s short-term btc markets shows up off-platform. across ~11.8k polymarket btc up/down cycles, binance spot volume jumped into the close when the polymarket contract was still trading like either side could win. when the contract was already priced away from 50/50, the burst mostly vanished. 1/8

Polymarket has traded ~$5.6B in crypto market volume this year But inside its fastest markets, the volume comes from repetition not size Wallets with a median ticket under $10 account for 98.5% of 5-minute taker volume

While Polymarket has done more crypto volume since the start of the year, its trade mix tells a different story. Both venues trade small. But Polymarket is crowded at just a few dollars. Kalshi runs larger throughout the distribution. From the median all the way into the tail. Same category. Different market structure.

Rebranding this The AI Modularization Thesis from USV "AWS built a $ 100B+ platform spanning compute, storage, and ML — and yet an entire ecosystem of multi-billion-dollar companies emerged by specializing at layers above it." If AI Modularization follows the path of cloud modularization then this thesis would certainly be well poised to generate large winners.

Tokenization has moved past the first wave of digital copies, but the market is still far from fully native onchain finance. So we built a way to track where assets sit in between. Today we’re introducing @PanteraCapital’s State of Tokenization: A quarterly report and data portal tracking 593 assets across a $320B market A look inside the portal 👇